2016 General Election - Opinions, thoughts, polls, EC, odds

[Jackstar]

I propose that everytime someone wants to use that word (and I include myself) then we should simply post this instead. lol

I started this way.

[Jackstar]

I just don't get how anyone can look at Clinton and think, "Oh, yeah, seems legit. Approved."

I at least can imagine multiple reasons why people do that with Trump. With Clinton, there is no worthy justification.

[136 or 142]

I just don't get how anyone can look at Clinton and think, "Oh, yeah, seems legit. Approved."

I at least can imagine multiple reasons why people do that with Trump. With Clinton, there is no worthy justification.

[Jackstar]

[136 or 142]

This is a scarecrow, not a strawman.

[GravitySucks]

I started this way.

And yet in spite of your many trips to the cornfield and your audience with the wizard, you still do not have a brain.

[TigerLily]

This is a scarecrow, not a strawman.

It may not be perfect for strawman but works for numbskull

[Dr. MD MD]

This is a scarecrow, not a strawman.

And what's a scarecrow made of?

[21st Century Man]

And what's a scarecrow made of?

Thank you for saying that.  Geez.  Some people are thick in the head.

From 3 ways To Make a Scarecrow
http://www.wikihow.com/Make-a-Scarecrow

Step 3
Stuff the shirt. Strategically stuff the shirt to fill out your scarecrow. Straw, hay, leaves, grass clippings, wood chips and rags are all acceptable stuffing materials.[2]
Try to avoid using newspaper to stuff your scarecrow, however, as rainfall may cause it to become soggy and shapeless.[2]
Use extra stuffing to give your scarecrow a potbelly if desired.

[ItsOver]

Thank you for saying that.  Geez.  Some people are thick in the head.

From 3 ways To Make a Scarecrow
http://www.wikihow.com/Make-a-Scarecrow

Step 3
Stuff the shirt. Strategically stuff the shirt to fill out your scarecrow. Straw, hay, leaves, grass clippings, wood chips and rags are all acceptable stuffing materials.[2]
Try to avoid using newspaper to stuff your scarecrow, however, as rainfall may cause it to become soggy and shapeless.[2]
Use extra stuffing to give your scarecrow a potbelly if desired.

Ha!  Thank yeeewww, 21st.

[Catsmile]

Misogynist! I'm TRIGGERED!!!1

[21st Century Man]

Misogynist! I'm TRIGGERED!!!1

LOL. 

[ItsOver]

Misogynist! I'm TRIGGERED!!!1

[21st Century Man]

Back to the polls.  UPI's daily presidential tracking poll shows Trump in the lead by 2.5 points.  Trump at 49.38 and Clinton at 46.89.  Why is it not mentioned on the RCP site?

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/10/03/UPICVoter-poll-Donald-Trump-leads-Hillary-Clinton-by-25-points/9051475504225/

[ItsOver]

Back to the polls.  UPI's daily presidential tracking poll shows Trump in the lead by 2.5 points.  Trump at 49.38 and Clinton at 46.89.  Why is it not mentioned on the RCP site?

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/10/03/UPICVoter-poll-Donald-Trump-leads-Hillary-Clinton-by-25-points/9051475504225/

It's all going to come down to the electoral college.  There are just so many blue state locks.

[GravitySucks]

It's all going to come down to the electoral college.  There are just so many blue state locks.

That can be said about any election. It is an uphill battle for any candidate that doesn't have a (D) next to their name.

[ItsOver]

That can be said about any election. It is an uphill battle for any candidate that doesn't have a (D) next to their name.

Yes, sir.  This is the unfortunate truth.

[Zetaspeak]

Oh no, Zeta. Of all games you chose that crazy Bills/Pats game.  Oh, well politics is not football. Somehow that statement sounds more deep and Zen than it really is.

Happily she looks good in the Electoral College and the Smart Money is with her

I guess that was a football equivalent of an "October surprise" when I did the tabulations on Saturday night the Pats were favorite by 7-points with similar money line Hillary had. When I woke up Sunday I saw the line drop the 3-points and of course the money line was much more different than Hillary as the game became considered close to even because of New England playing their third-string QB. Tried to edit the post before the game to mention that but the edit time limit had passed.

Back to the polls.  UPI's daily presidential tracking poll shows Trump in the lead by 2.5 points.  Trump at 49.38 and Clinton at 46.89.  Why is it not mentioned on the RCP site?

I take them a bit more seriously than LA times. They do have  2012 track record of picking Obama by 1 (so they are kind of average) but I would take them into consideration. Not really sure why RCP doesn't consider them, I consider them right in the middle of the pack,  not as strong as the 5 I normally list but not as bad as Rasmussen or Monmouth. They are probably the most credible poll that has Trump leading or tied.

Even though the national polls have moved drastically since the debate the state numbers haven't really shown as much but if you look closely you can see how the boost in the polls helped Clinton with the EC. The major one is Michigan moved from toss up to light blue (5.5 for HC) while Georgia sneaked back into toss up (5.2 for DT) but even though most major states hasn't changed colours or shade of colour she has gained a percentage or 2 on most of her light and medium blue states which is always helpful as she needs to hold on to them and leading 6 out of 10 swing gray states with Penn, Colorado and Maine over 3%.

Grey          = Tied to 5.5%
Light color =  5.5% -6.7%
Medium color = 6.8% - 8.3%
Solid color    = 8.3% and up

[136 or 142]

Thank you for saying that.  Geez.  Some people are thick in the head.

From 3 ways To Make a Scarecrow
http://www.wikihow.com/Make-a-Scarecrow

Step 3
Stuff the shirt. Strategically stuff the shirt to fill out your scarecrow. Straw, hay, leaves, grass clippings, wood chips and rags are all acceptable stuffing materials.[2]
Try to avoid using newspaper to stuff your scarecrow, however, as rainfall may cause it to become soggy and shapeless.[2]
Use extra stuffing to give your scarecrow a potbelly if desired.

The name of the picture is 'scarecrow.'  That's what I was referring to.

[Jackstar]

you still do not have a brain.

numbskull

Into the mud, Scum Queen.

[Zetaspeak]

Last week we saw a big shift after the debate for Clinton on the national polls this week her national polls stayed strong and now we see the results in state polls where now her numbers are back to where they were in early September before the slide
Public Policy Polling   Clinton 46.5%  -    42.5%  Trump -   AltParty 7%  (9/28)   
Ipsos Reid /Reuters   Clinton 43%   -    34% Trump -     AltParty  9%  (10/3)  (Clinton went from a 4.5 lead to a 9! point lead)
Pew Research           Clinton 47.5    -     40%  Trump   -    AltParty  11.5 (9/12) 
AP/GFK                     Clinton  46%    -   40.5% Trump -   AltParty   11     (9/19)
YouGov/Economist    Clinton  45%  -     41.5% Trump -    AltParty  10%      (10/3) 
AVERAGE              CLINTON 45.5%  - 39.5%  TRUMP - AltParty  10.5%

Ipsos really kicked Trump in the gut this week, the normally Trump favorable "likely voter" tabulation gives Clinton a 6.5-points lead (43-36.5), but if you look at registered voters Clinton is up by a crazy 11.5% (43 - 31.5) . Taking the top 5 polls into account Clinton grew her lead by a percentage to 6%

As we go state to state, Clinton picks up another state this week as North Carolina was split between the prediction sites last week is now solidly in blue with full agreement 7-0-1 Blue (except for one site calling it a tossup) Clinton made Florida, Nevada and Colorado more solid on the other hand there is now some debate if Trump has Ohio, Iowa or even Arizona as solid as he had before.

538                     Dem 346       Repub 192     
electiongrapyh     Dem 346       Repub 192   
270/Sabato         Dem 319       Repub 219       [Nev-6 split]     
electionproje       Dem 333       Repub 225     
270/GovernMag  Dem 292       Repub 246       [Fla-29, NC-15, Colo-9 Nev-6, split]
RCP                    Dem 322       Repub 216   
E-vote                Dem 334        Repub 204       
270/Prinston       Dem 341        Repub 196   
MY AVERAGE      Dem 322        Repub 216 [Dem pick up N. Carolina]

[Zetaspeak]

How bad was Trump week in the betting lines, it's so bad that 2 out of my 5 regular betting sites (pinnacle & Thegreek) I was looking at the odds have taken the election option off the table. I found two alternatives to take it's place
-paddy power         Clinton 2/9   (79%)      Trump  10/3  (21%)  [Clinton gain 7%]
-William Hill            Clinton -400  (77%)    Trump  +300  (23%)  [Clinton gain 6%]
-Sportsbet              Clinton 1.26   (78%)    Trump   4.50   (22%) [Clinton gains 8%]
-Bodog                   Clinton -500   (79%)      Trump +325   (21%) [replaced thegreek] 
-Sportsbook            Clinton 1.20   (81%)     Trump  5.00   (19%) [replaced pinnacle]

The average now is Clinton 79% - 21% Trump giving Clinton another 8% jump compared to last week. It's an amazing drop for Trump that just two weeks ago Clinton was at 63-37 percent lead. The RCP betting odds is similar jump this week as they have it at 81%-19% Clinton, which is similar to 538 polls only forecast that has Clinton chances of winning at 82%-18%.

It we compare it to NFL football. Clinton/Trump current odds are matches with the biggest landslide game on the schedule this week Patriots vs Browns. Looking at the paddy power site  the odds have New England/Clinton at (2/9) and Browns/Trump at (7/2). So far just going by NFL odds Hillary has a 3-2 record over Trump.

Now something a bit of fun for the debates tonight, betting sites have some over/under odds that I think it's kind of amusing
- How often Russia or Russians is said during the debate by either candidate 10.5
- Deport or Deportation by either candidate 3.5
- The words Liar, Lies, Lie, Lying said by either candidate 4.5
- The word racist or racism  by either candidate 4.5
- Email or Emails by either candidate 6.5
- The word "Foundation" 3.5
- The term "Wallstreet" 2.5
- Mexico or Mexicans by either candidate  4.5
- Clinton jacket/outfit color odds Blue 3.00, White 3.00, Yellow/Gold 5.00, Red 11.00, Brown 16.00, Black 21.00, Other 4.00
- Trump tie color odds Red 1.40, Blue 4.00, Yellow/Gold 6.00, Multiple color 8.00, Black 31.00, Other 11.00

[onan]

Unless the baby jesus brings a halo for Don, get ready to say:

She's not my president.

[pate]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypFs4M7NWqY

EyeMr.Gawd!\\

Nautical Shoore

[pate]

Unless the baby jesus brings a halo for Don, get ready to say:

She's not my president.

Total cuck, props Dude!

[onan]

Total cuck, props Dude!

I am sure you meant that in the kindest way.

[Dr. MD MD]

Unless the baby jesus brings a halo for Don, get ready to say:

She's not my president.

I'm already practicing. I know she will be cuz the fix is in. 

[pate]

\self-reported

[Lord Grantham]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

83% and climbing. It's a shame no one installed braked on the TrumpTrain, because it's heading straight toward Clayton Ravine.

[Zetaspeak]

The national numbers are now taking effect in the state by state polls. This week Pennsylvanian went from toss up to medium blue (7.7% lead for HC) and same with Colorado (6.7% lead for HC) Something really strange is going on in Alaska as it seems to be very tight up with with it going from a solid red all the way to a toss up (4.6% lead for DT)

Grey          = Tied to 5.8%
Light color =  5.9% -6.5%
Medium color = 6.5% - 7.8%
Solid color    = 7.8% and up