Random stupid things on your mind. Post them.

[Mind Flayer Monk]

It will be interesting to see if there is a big correction in early 2014.  If so, after calling the 2008 Recession, too, I'll be listening to Tom Sullivan with even greater dedication.  (Right now, I only have time to listen to the first hour).

Huh, its really hard to sift through financial prediction people. Where I am at is doing well right now. I will give him a listen next week and see what he has to say.

Mr. Sullivan is right about 90% of the time, I've noticed.

In general, experts are correct around 65-67% of the time. Expert systems (like computer models) are correct around 70% of the time. The rate of 90% is very rare.

[Heather Wade]

Mr. Sullivan is right about 90% of the time, I've noticed.  If he's right about a big correction in early 2014, then you might just consider listening to his radio show.  One hour a day, the first hour, is all you need (the 2nd and 3rd hour of his show he usually goes onto other things that aren't quite as compelling:  first hour he reserves for the "important stuff").

Here's a bio on him from Wiki.  Don't hold it against him that he's on the Fox News Channel.  He is a Conservative, but a very moderate one and his views exist in a mid-place between the right and the left.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_M._Sullivan

You'll note that he ran his own brokerage firm for years.  The guy knows the stock market well.

After looking at his bio, I think I have heard him, guest hosting for Rush a few times.  Thank you for the suggestion.  I could use a good, half-sane, stand-in-the-middle financial/ current news voice in my ear...  For the times are a little grim around the edges lately, in our country.

[zeebo]

Tom Sullivan, this radio talk show host (a Conservative but not a Republican; he's an Independent) ...

Thanks, Ravenna I've caught his cable show on FBN a few times, he seems pretty level-headed to me as well.  I'll definitely check out his radio show for more info. 

And I agree about the likelihood of a pullback.  Actually I'm rather surprised we've been drifting upwards for so long and also in daily disbelief how nonchalant our gov't officials are with the ongoing extreme monetary manipulation, seemingly unstoppable growth of nat'l debt, etc.

Why do you think I preoccupy myself with ghost stories, alien encounters, and bigfoot?   

[Ravenna]

After looking at his bio, I think I have heard him, guest hosting for Rush a few times.  Thank you for the suggestion.  I could use a good, half-sane, stand-in-the-middle financial/ current news voice in my ear...  For the times are a little grim around the edges lately, in our country.

That's one of the things I love about Tom Sullivan.  He's right in the middle, and looks at, and takes in, both the left and the right sides of things politically.  He doesn't view a situation through biased glasses because he's a Republican or a Democrat.  He's an Independent, and allegiance to none of the political parties enables him to fairly see what ALL of them are trying to do, without being biased.  There is no one else in talk radio that I can think of who's an independent Moderate to the extent that Tom Sullivan is.  Granted, he does come from a Republican background and believes in less government rather than more.

He believes that Obama's policies during the Recession delayed the recovery, and have been largely responsible for such a weak recovery.  He believes we will have a double-dip.

[Ravenna]

Thanks, Ravenna I've caught his cable show on FBN a few times, he seems pretty level-headed to me as well.  I'll definitely check out his radio show for more info. 

And I agree about the likelihood of a pullback.  Actually I'm rather surprised we've been drifting upwards for so long and also in daily disbelief how nonchalant our gov't officials are with the ongoing extreme monetary manipulation, seemingly unstoppable growth of nat'l debt, etc.

That is due to the Fed continuing the bolster the economy artificially by feeding more newly printed money into it.  Any time you have something that's being artificially bolstered, you're in for a crash sooner or later.

[zeebo]

That is due to the Fed continuing the bolster the economy artificially by feeding more newly printed money into it.  Any time you have something that's being artificially bolstered, you're in for a crash sooner or later.

I agree.  And I believe moreover that the Fed is not just printing money to keep the economy afloat, but it pretty much has to keep down interest rates at this point to avoid a spike in costs of servicing our ballooning nat'l debt.  The crisis will come when they're no longer able to keep rates down after the world catches on and demands higher rates to hold our debt.  Hope there's a good episode of "Doomsday Preppers" on tonight.   :

[PB the Deplorable]

It will be interesting to see if there is a big correction in early 2014.  If so, after calling the 2008 Recession, too, I'll be listening to Tom Sullivan with even greater dedication.  (Right now, I only have time to listen to the first hour).

The Fed and Treasury will try to do whatever it takes to delay a correction until after the Nov 2014 elections.  Whether they have anything left in their quiver to be able to do that remains to be seen.

[PB the Deplorable]

I agree.  And I believe moreover that the Fed is not just printing money to keep the economy afloat, but it pretty much has to keep down interest rates at this point to avoid a spike in costs of servicing our ballooning nat'l debt...

Artificially keeping interest rates down in order to continue to sell more cheap debt - by doing that they are stealing the interest on deposits that savers would have earned.

[Ravenna]

I agree.  And I believe moreover that the Fed is not just printing money to keep the economy afloat, but it pretty much has to keep down interest rates at this point to avoid a spike in costs of servicing our ballooning nat'l debt.  The crisis will come when they're no longer able to keep rates down after the world catches on and demands higher rates to hold our debt.  Hope there's a good episode of "Doomsday Preppers" on tonight.   :

Exactly.  In fact, the last big sell-off that occurred on the Stock Market was when there was just a RUMOR out that The Fed was about to raise the interest rate!  They did not, but ended up keeping it the same, and the stock market quickly recovered.

[Ravenna]

The Fed and Treasury will try to do whatever it takes to delay a correction until after the Nov 2014 elections.  Whether they have anything left in their quiver to be able to do that remains to be seen.

I agree.  Coz if they do raise the interest rate, and there's a big stock market sell off, people will blame that on the Dems and they'll lose out at the polls.

I believe that this is why they're pushing back the open period for the Employer Mandate, too:  so that the bad news that will hit from that will hit AFTER the Nov. 2014 elections take place.

[PB the Deplorable]

I agree.  Coz if they do raise the interest rate, and there's a big stock market sell off, people will blame that on the Dems and they'll lose out at the polls.

I believe that this is why they're pushing back the open period for the Employer Mandate, too:  so that the bad news that will hit from that will hit AFTER the Nov. 2014 elections take place.

All administrations do this - they control the calendar to a certain extent.

It will be interesting to watch the current administration and Big Media try to contain the fallout from ObamaCare - short of a full repeal, I think it's too late for that and they will just end up keeping people agitated all the way to election day.

[Ravenna]

All administrations do this - they control the calendar to a certain extent.

It will be interesting to watch the current administration and Big Media try to contain the fallout from ObamaCare - short of a full repeal, I think it's too late for that and they will just end up keeping people agitated all the way to election day.

Agree that all administrations do it, to some degree or another.  Still seems crafty to me, but then that's politics.

I don't think anything can be done about Obamacare.  It will come down to the next President, elected running on an anti-Obamacare platform, to clean it up.  And don't expect premiums to ever, ever lower again to the rates they were before the "Affordable" Health Care Act set in.

[zeebo]

Artificially keeping interest rates down in order to continue to sell more cheap debt - by doing that they are stealing the interest on deposits that savers would have earned.

True of course.  They've been doing that for years.  Punishing savers & rewarding debtors.  Seems like an odd incentive structure for a healthy economy.

[Ravenna]

True of course.  They've been doing that for years.  Punishing savers & rewarding debtors.  Seems like an odd incentive structure for a healthy economy.

Savers must be punished:  they are not spending, and therefore their money is holed up somewhere and not circulating out there in the economy.  Not my thinking:  "theirs."

[Mind Flayer Monk]

True of course.  They've been doing that for years.  Punishing savers & rewarding debtors.  Seems like an odd incentive structure for a healthy economy.

Investors are rewarded, not debtors.

[zeebo]

Investors are rewarded, not debtors.

Yes investors (in equities) are doing well because of the false sugar high of money printing, however debtors who can take out big loans for houses, cars etc. are encouraged to do so by the low rates.  Also companies are selling huge corporate bonds (aquiring debt) locked in at rock bottom rates and then buying their own stock back to pump up the stock price. 

Also right now inflation is at historic lows, but when it inevitably creeps up along with higher rates then the worst thing you can hold is cash as it loses value while holding debt is great since you're paying back with cheaper dollars.  I think it's all part of a scheme to try and wiggle out of our nat'l debt because no one in gov't can face having to actually tell us we (and our descendents) have to pay it back. 

There needs to be some debt financing of course but when it's this out of whack I get nervous.  I think more investment capital should be coming from saved dollars, not from so many borrowed ones as we have now.  That kind of over-leveraging tends to lead to bubbles like we saw in the housing collapse.

[Ravenna]

The current economy is a house of cards, precariously balanced.  You can depend on that it will collapse, and when that happens a HUGE slide in the stock market and many ripples of repercussions.  Recession?  It might push the U.S. into worse than that even.  It's a matter of when, not if.

[Marc.Knight]

The current economy is a house of cards, precariously balanced.  You can depend on that it will collapse, and when that happens a HUGE slide in the stock market and many ripples of repercussions.  Recession?  It might push the U.S. into worse than that even.  It's a matter of when, not if.

Great.

[onan]

The current economy is a house of cards, precariously balanced.  You can depend on that it will collapse, and when that happens a HUGE slide in the stock market and many ripples of repercussions.  Recession?  It might push the U.S. into worse than that even.  It's a matter of when, not if.

Then what happens?

[Juan]

Then what happens?

At least I won't lose my job, as I don't have one.

[jazmunda]

Back on topic.

Food.com has a recipe for ice cubes.

http://www.food.com/recipe/ice-cubes-420398

Wait ..... WTF?!

[ItsOver]

Back on topic.

Food.com has a recipe for ice cubes.

http://www.food.com/recipe/ice-cubes-420398

Wait ..... WTF?!

Jorch would still screw it up.

[jazmunda]

The reviews are quite funny too.

http://www.food.com/recipe/ice-cubes-420398/review

[Little Hater]

If someone ever makes a film of The Mike Tomlin Story, Omar Epps is a lock for the lead role.

[Heather Wade]

Then what happens?

We get to eat our neighbors.   

[onan]

We get to eat our neighbors.   

I got the bbq sauce.

[zeebo]

I got the bbq sauce.

ah so you are one of those "preppers" 

[zeebo]

Back on topic.
...

It's funny that even a thread about nothing can go off-topic.  Kinda makes ya think.   :

[Heather Wade]

ah so you are one of those "preppers" 

Yeah, man, I got like six books of matches saved up.     I got this.

[PB the Deplorable]

Investors are rewarded, not debtors.

Borrowers/debtors are rewarded with artificially low interest rates