Coronavirus 2020

[Walks_At_Night]

That would be counterproductive in the case of judges.  They can already get any judge appointed just using their majority. There may be cabinet positions and lower level appointments like the contested Inspector General appointments made but McConnell has been holding sessions as needed.  The house has been on recess until 4/20 but supposedly Pelosi said she is not coming back then.

Of course she won't be coming back.  She is probably wound up in saran wrap and living in the bubble boy enclosure.  With Trump and Pence waltzing around together side by side she has an outside shot at glory.  All she has to do is not die and bide her time.   

[Walks_At_Night]

Is it sinful to be shit posting on bellgab when I have the Easter service from the Lutheran church live streaming in another window?

[Kidnostad3]

It will be interesting to see how many of those who attend church services today in violation of local prohibition contract the virus versus the infection rate of their neighbors who complied with the ban.

[Kidnostad3]

Is it sinful to be shit posting on bellgab when I have the Easter service from the Lutheran church live streaming in another window?

Yes but an indulgence can be obtained by making a large contribution to the Church’s building fund.

[Walks_At_Night]

Yes but an indulgence can be obtained by making a large contribution to the Church’s building fund.

They do list three distinct ways to get your offerings in via floating text.   

[Kidnostad3]

They do list three distinct ways to get your offerings in via floating text.   

There you go.

[K_Dubb]

Is it sinful to be shit posting on bellgab when I have the Easter service from the Lutheran church live streaming in another window?

As long as you are wearing bunny ears it's ok.

[SredniVashtar]

My point is that computer models are not science, they are guesses.  Someone takes a guess at the assumptions and generates a result. I find nothing wrong with varying estimates during a crisis.  What I find frightening is our reliance on computer models.  They are crap.  I also find conflicting information or possible lies a problem.  Not long ago we were being told not to wear masks because they don’t work and furthermore the healthcare professionals need them.  Please explain to me why healthcare workers need something that is ineffective.  I still think the coming world depression due to crippling  all economies is going to kill far more than this pandemic.

I think there's going to be a far higher risk of infection in a hospital so wearing a mask is going to offer some protection. If you're going to the shops wearing a mask I doubt it will make much difference.

[SredniVashtar]

Yeah. Except they can still be terrible models. They claim the IHME models were set to account for total lockdown of all states through May 30th and the range of deaths were a range based on the amount of compliance.  They were still high even though not all states were in a lockdown. 

I totally understand models and I totally understand probability. And I totally understand manipulation. 

The models were used to show the need for “flattening the curve” and I believe skewed to instill fear, if not panic.  Also skewed to manipulate or force the executive branch into a box. One only has to look at the disparity in the predictions of deaths (which even though high, were only high by a factor of 2-4) versus the the predicted number of hospital beds (which were high by an order of magnitude). Then you have the assumption of being in a lockdown state through the end of May.  Why didn’t they show the model with an end date of the lockdown as April 30th, which is the current quideline?   The worst internals of the model result in the predictions that each and every state drop down to zero deaths somewhere between the end of May and mid-June.  This puts the administration in a box as far as lifting the guidelines for the “quarantine”. If they stick with the guidelines for the end of April, every death which exceeds the predictions that have been lowered with the real data will be blamed on Trump for not going with the recommendation for a May 31 lockdown.  Yet if they go with the recommendation for the end of May, every death after that will just be written off as yet another error in the models.

I wonder what is going to happen when ventilators start showing up from the 10 or so companies that have been mobilized to produce new ones because it doesn’t look like we are going to have full utilization of the ones we have already had in hospitals or distributed from the stockpile.

As has been stated, these guidelines and total shutdown of the economy were sold based on the need to flatten the curve and keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed in the near term. Around the time the IHME models were adopted as gospel, the narrative switched to reaching an unrealistic goal of zero deaths by mid June.  How could they be relatively close on the predictions for morbidity and so off scale on all the other factors such as number of beds, number of ICU beds and number of ventilators? 

There was definitely an agenda into the design of the models.

As nothing like this has ever been tried before I think it's only too likely that the models are going to be out until they get actual data to work from. It's literally unprecedented to shut down countries like this so it's hardly surprising that people are blundering about in the dark.

Contingency planning is always going to involve worst-case scenarios, I don't see that as something sinister. It's better to get it wrong on the high-side than the other way round. I know you're being indoctrinated over there to distrust the word of anyone with expertise but most doctors are just interested in saving lives, that's their job. Trump sees his role as prancing around on T.V. and taking credit for everything, I know who I'd rather trust.

[K_Dubb]

I don't see it as sinister, either, but the models are being used to scare people into compliance -- all for our own good, of course.  Because you and your kind think people are stupid bovines who must be goaded.

When the general folk wisdom of bellgab, which held that the scale of this crisis would be a fraction of initial predictions, looks more accurate than what is being promoted as science, people are entitled to be cynical.

[GravitySucks]

As nothing like this has ever been tried before I think it's only too likely that the models are going to be out until they get actual data to work from. It's literally unprecedented to shut down countries like this so it's hardly surprising that people are blundering about in the dark.

Contingency planning is always going to involve worst-case scenarios, I don't see that as something sinister. It's better to get it wrong on the high-side than the other way round. I know you're being indoctrinated over there to distrust the word of anyone with expertise but most doctors are just interested in saving lives, that's their job. Trump sees his role as prancing around on T.V. and taking credit for everything, I know who I'd rather trust.

So you trust the doctors that say that alcohol is a poison that kills an estimated 88,000 deaths per year in the US?

Why isn’t every distillery shut down permanently?

https://www.niaaa.nih.gov/publications/brochures-and-fact-sheets/alcohol-facts-and-statistics

[paladin1991]

I read an article about a chain of day surgery clinics in NYC. They weren’t allowed to be open but had 600 rooms with over 200 doctors and all of the PPE. They tried to make these available on a volunteer basis to NYC or the state and could not get anyone to return their phone calls. Supposedly the drawback was their license did not allow them to keep patients over night.

WTF?  This is the shit that is absolutely killing me.  If, as I have heard repeatedly, we are at war, then why the hell are we not marshaling every possible resource?  Wartime?  Fuck  me to tears.  Goddamn politicians.  Nothing but cocksuckers in the swamp.  Democrat?  Republican?  Bullllshit.  Cocksuckers!


https://youtu.be/LJVqeWDXjqc

[Walks_At_Night]

As long as you are wearing bunny ears it's ok.

Ha!  Well it's over.  I'm good to Reformation Sunday.  This was the best service ever - no hurtin' shoes, didn't have to drive over and fight for parking, didn't have to shake hands with a pack of sanctimonious assholes, no guilt trip from the good Pastor for not showing up more.  Yet, I can still tell my Mom I went.

Let's keep this Mother shutdown for the full 18 months................

[paladin1991]

Science is about using the best available data to make predictions about the future. If the data changes then so does the model. It's about probability rather than certainty. If social-distancing is the best way to reduce the rate of infections then revising the numbers down illustrates its effectiveness not the weakness of the modelling. People are terrible at understanding probability.

What is probable is that I will or will not become sick.  Absolute most accurate odds on infection are 50/50.  I've bet my life on those odds more than once.
Fuck probability.  Fuck modelling.  Fuck the odds. Fuck Fear.  Fuck the Wuhan Virus. 

Smoke me a kipper, SV, I'll be back for breakfast.

[paladin1991]

Johnson is discharged from the hospital.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-52262012

Oh, happy happy day.

[paladin1991]

I read yesterday that Pelosi is refusing to call the house back into session until Mid May at the earliest. I wonder if the state of emergency allows Trump to dispatch US Marshalls to round up all these slackers to continue to pass emergency legislation.

Fuck them.  We are at war (I keep hearing).  Trump should call Congress himself.   As in, "All those who are patriots will respond regardless of party line. Those who could give a fuck about their constituients willl not.    Congress!  Report  for duty!"

Yeah, I shake my head at the way those words sound.  And I figure you will have only a hand full that will show up without Mitch or the bitch giving the  nod. 

[K_Dubb]

Ha!  Well it's over.  I'm good to Reformation Sunday.  This was the best service ever - no hurtin' shoes, didn't have to drive over and fight for parking, didn't have to shake hands with a pack of sanctimonious assholes, no guilt trip from the good Pastor for not showing up more.  Yet, I can still tell my Mom I went.

Let's keep this Mother shutdown for the full 18 months................

Good job yeah I see my neighbors are off to church just now with their cute little toddler in a bonnet aaaaah how adorable!  I guess the Russians don't believe in no virus.

[albrecht]

Science is about using the best available data to make predictions about the future. If the data changes then so does the model. It's about probability rather than certainty. If social-distancing is the best way to reduce the rate of infections then revising the numbers down illustrates its effectiveness not the weakness of the modelling. People are terrible at understanding probability.

What is the probability that some governments, international institutions, private Foundations, politicians, and certain large corporations (and people) are going to use this Corona-Chan to aggrandize and centralize power, curb civil rights, change society and social-behavior, raise taxes, initiate more international laws, regulations, secret global courts, and wealth redistribution schemes. Oh yeah, and make a lot of money by buying on the crash?

http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2490865&CategoryId=12396

http://inlandnwreport.com/2020/04/03/12673/

https://spainsnews.com/un-calls-for-large-scale-multi-lateral-response-to-10-of-global-gdp/



"Gimme, Gimme, Gimme, I need some more. Gimme, Gimme, Gimme, don't ask what for!!"

[SredniVashtar]

So you trust the doctors that say that alcohol is a poison that kills an estimated 88,000 deaths per year in the US?

Why isn’t every distillery shut down permanently?

https://www.niaaa.nih.gov/publications/brochures-and-fact-sheets/alcohol-facts-and-statistics

Aha! You bring out the Tu Quoque fallacy and I hadn't even taken my trousers off yet, debating-wise.

It's perfectly possible to enjoy alcohol without getting rat-arsed and destroying your liver, just as I am doing right now, enjoying a Gin and It while relaxing on the balcony watching my gardeners toiling away in the heat on my vast country estate.

Doctors aren't perfect but they're more likely to be right about medical matters than non-doctors. The reason we don't ban booze should be fairly obvious anyway, given recent history over there.

[SredniVashtar]

What is probable is that I will or will not become sick.  Absolute most accurate odds on infection are 50/50.  I've bet my life on those odds more than once.
Fuck probability.  Fuck modelling.  Fuck the odds. Fuck Fear.  Fuck the Wuhan Virus. 

Smoke me a kipper, SV, I'll be back for breakfast.

Hadn't seen you as a Red Dwarf fan.

[whoozit]

I think there's going to be a far higher risk of infection in a hospital so wearing a mask is going to offer some protection. If you're going to the shops wearing a mask I doubt it will make much difference.

I agree that is what they meant but that is not what was stated.  That is where they lost me.

[SredniVashtar]

Good job yeah I see my neighbors are off to church just now with their cute little toddler in a bonnet aaaaah how adorable! 

I've told you before, be careful where you point your telescope, especially with Russians. They catch you checking out their kid they're likely to go Edward II on yo' ass. Literally.

[Walks_At_Night]

This doesn't sound too great thread.  I can hack distancibg w/o too much bother but I need bacon, dammit!

Smithfield shutting U.S. pork plant indefinitely, warns of meat shortages during pandemic

https://whbl.com/news/articles/2020/apr/12/smithfield-shutting-us-pork-plant-indefinitely-warns-of-meat-shortages-during-pandemic/1005820/

[Dr. MD MD]

Fire Fauci Hire Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai

Dr. Anthony Fauci right now is in the driver’s seat. Trump put him there and it was a huge mistake. Fauci may be a key member of Trump’s coronavirus task force, but he has also been a long-time key member of the globalist medical tyrants.

Is Fauci in Bill Gates’ back pocket?

Deborah Birx is often seen with Vice President Pence. She too is owned by Bill Gates. These Deep State swamp dwellers all want to drag out the quarantine lockdown for as long as possible. They’re doing this to make Bill look like a savior when he rolls out his vaccine. They think the citizens will insist on getting the shot. Yes, the same shot with digital elements. A vaccine ’tattoo,’ or mark of the beast. In some states it will become mandatory. In California, vaccines are already mandatory. We’re losing our ability to decide what goes into our bodies. It’s the ultimate in Orwellian tyranny and Bill Gates is Big Brother.

The Left wants mandatory vaccines yet when it comes to abortions, it’s “My body. MY Choice”.

Doesn’t Fauci have to get at least ONE covid-19 ie  “Chinese Virus” prediction right?

Fauci now says the White House is mulling coronavirus certificates of immunity. This is a way of preparing people to be tracked and be ‘allowed’ to travel. “Your papers please!” It will be the stake in the heart of our Fourth Amendment.

Fauci is a fraud. He must go. FIRE FAUCI!

Sign the Petition at FIRE FAUCI!

“The current trajectory of Dr. Anthony Fauci’s public ‘health’ policy will result in the short- and long-term destruction of our citizen’s immune health as well as our nation’s economic health â€" perhaps a conscious and intended goal. Dr. Fauci’s policy, at best, is based on a 1950s outdated ‘one-size-fits-all,’ non-personalized approach to medicine and public health; and, at worst is derived from a ‘fake science’ understanding of the immune system â€" one, which Dr. Fauci, over five decades has perpetuated, and exploited to build his career.”

Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai

Fire Fauci!â€"Ben Garrison

https://shiva4senate.com/petition-fire-fauci/

[K_Dubb]

I've told you before, be careful where you point your telescope, especially with Russians. They catch you checking out their kid they're likely to go Edward II on yo' ass. Literally.

No the binoculars only come out when the paterfamilias mows the lawn.

[GravitySucks]

Aha! You bring out the Tu Quoque fallacy and I hadn't even taken my trousers off yet, debating-wise.

It's perfectly possible to enjoy alcohol without getting rat-arsed and destroying your liver, just as I am doing right now, enjoying a Gin and It while relaxing on the balcony watching my gardeners toiling away in the heat on my vast country estate.

Doctors aren't perfect but they're more likely to be right about medical matters than non-doctors. The reason we don't ban booze should be fairly obvious anyway, given recent history over there.

Because it can be repurposed as hand sanitizer in time of need?

There are two substances that could be eliminated which would eliminate two of the top three types of preventable deaths in the US. Tobacco and alcohol.  It alcohol were invented today it would be a Schedule I drug right next to heroin on the banned list. It has no medicinal value, severe risk of addiction, and a major contributing factor to death.

That’s over 200,000 deaths. Per year. Preventable deaths.  Wouldn’t take the total economy down.  Just a few slices of it. 

But noone would get rich from developing, testing and distributing a tobacco or alcohol vaccine. 

[Dr. MD MD]

WTF?  This is the shit that is absolutely killing me.  If, as I have heard repeatedly, we are at war, then why the hell are we not marshaling every possible resource?  Wartime?  Fuck  me to tears.  Goddamn politicians.  Nothing but cocksuckers in the swamp.  Democrat?  Republican?  Bullllshit.  Cocksuckers!

Calm down! I’ll tell you what I think you’d tell me if I was posting like this: just go choke down some dicks and relax!

[pate]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSyueBoC9mE

If only we had harkened to the sage advice of Barney Fife a few months ago when we had the chance.  He would have been fully supportive of the massive Corn Teen protocols...

Even though Barney is not opining and pontificating about the current subject, with a little imagination one can take the following monologue to heart if a little artistic leeway is taken and one imagines Barney discussing the necessity of Corn Teen in Mayberry:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwjWyFN-Leg

Happy Easter, y'all.

-p

[albrecht]

This doesn't sound too great thread.  I can hack distancibg w/o too much bother but I need bacon, dammit!

Smithfield shutting U.S. pork plant indefinitely, warns of meat shortages during pandemic

https://whbl.com/news/articles/2020/apr/12/smithfield-shutting-us-pork-plant-indefinitely-warns-of-meat-shortages-during-pandemic/1005820/

The Chinese bought Smithfield years ago. Coincidence, I'm sure. 

https://money.cnn.com/2018/04/03/news/economy/smithfield-wh-group-china-pork-tariffs/index.html 

https://www.ksl.com/article/30857313/china-pork-giant-wh-group-makes-2nd-ipo-attempt 

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/whos-behind-chinese-takeover-worlds-biggest-pork-producer

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-smithfield-foods-idUSKCN1NL2BZ

https://fortune.com/2013/06/04/the-real-reason-behind-shuanghuis-purchase-of-smithfield/

https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/companies/n-carolina-court-ruling-leaves-smithfield-agreement-intact/ar-BB12eDuB

[Dr. MD MD]

https://banned.video/channel/the-alex-jones-show