Predictions...will Putin grab more of Ukraine?

[VtaGeezer]

The Ukrainian military has been humiliated and is toothless.  I think Putin is setting up to grab at least a land corridor from Russia into Crimea along the SE coast of Ukraine.  As it stands, he has Crimea but can access it only across Ukraine or the narrow straits to the southern part of Russia.  Worst case would be taking the eastern 25% of Ukraine, roughly from Crimean isthmus N to the city Kharvik.  There's an old Irish saying "May as well be hung for a sheep as a goat"; meaning he's already damned for Crimea; going further will extend only the current fuzzy mess.  If he waits to do it, it will become a discrete aggressive act and all the harder to resolve politically.  I think Western leaders realize that this is really a modern round of ancient territorial scuffles in that region.  They have actually no dog in this fight, but must keep up ideologic appearances. I, for one, have no interest in starting a new Cold War over internecine Russian skirmishes or reiterations of the Domino Theory BS that cost near 100K American lives since WWII.

(Maybe we can actually discuss Putin and Russia and not veer off into Its-Obama's-Fault Land.)

[Yorkshire pud]

The saying is actually 'May as well hang as a sheep as a lamb'. In other words, if you're being accused of a misdemeanor that is trivial but stirs the shit, you might as well really go for it.

[wr250]

(Maybe we can actually discuss Putin and Russia and not veer off into Its-Obama's-Fault Land.)

ok ,its not 0bamas fault. its norry's fault.

[West of the Rockies]

Damnit, Geezer, everything IS Obama's fault (a bit like everything was Bush's fault, Clinton's fault...)

That's how political chat goes nowadays.

[PB the Deplorable]

Political events don't generally happen randomly, they are part of an ongoing continuum. 

Mistakes our officials have made along the way, and what our response is or should be is part of the storyline. 

I get that people who voted for him are tired of hearing about his incompetence - and whether he's dragging us down intentionally or if he's just in way over his head and this is the best he can do.

[wr250]

Political events don't generally happen randomly, they are part of an ongoing continuum. 

Mistakes our officials have made along the way, and what our response is or should be is part of the storyline. 

I get that people who voted for him are tired of hearing about his incompetence - and whether he's dragging us down intentionally or if he's just in way over his head and this is the best he can do.

to draw a blatantly obvious comparison .... c2c am .

[PB the Deplorable]

As far as grabbing more of the Ukraine - it depends on Putin's intentions.  I'd say yes.

Is he trying to reunite the former USSR or most of it?  Does he just want to annex the portions of the old empire that have a large Russian population?  Is he after areas of strategic military value?  Is he just going to nibble off whatever he can get?

One of the long term Russian/Soviet goals is a warm water port.  They went into Afghanistan with the idea of controlling Baluchistan (in Pakistan on the Arabian Sea/Indian Ocean) next.

He recently announced he is negotiating with 7 countries around the world for ports to host his navy and bases to host his air force (Cyprus, Algeria, Singapore, the Seychelles, Nicaragua, Cuba, Venezuela).  He's definitely on the move.

Putin has already severed Abkhazia and South Ossetia - both formerly part of Georgia.  The Russian population in both Latvia and Estonia is around 25% and those countries have ports on the Baltic Sea. 

I expect Putin will continue to seek to annex former Soviet areas of strategic military value and areas with large Russian populations - including eastern Ukraine.  Why wouldn't he.  I also expect China to annex more international airspace and shipping lanes, and arbitrarily declare the disputes they have with their neighbors over various islands in the western Pacific over, and that those islands now belong to China, period.  Why wouldn't they. 

[albrecht]

As far as grabbing more of the Ukraine - it depends on Putin's intentions.  I'd say yes.

Is he trying to reunite the former USSR or most of it?  Does he just want to annex the portions of the old empire that have a large Russian population?  Is he after areas of strategic military value?  Is he just going to nibble off whatever he can get?

One of the long term Russian/Soviet goals is a warm water port.

Dont forget the machinations, fly-overs, and new claims up north also (many over NATO countries ignored by us) as the arctic, NW Passage etc open up many economic opportunities and military value. The sad thing is Russia couldve been, maybe, more friendly (maybe even a wary ally) against enemy of China n radical Islam if we didnt keep on with the Kissinger, Brzenski, n neo-con view of the world. Siding with the radicals n then giving Kosovo to criminal Islamic radicals and participating in the post-soviet looting. But Putin used those bailouts n corrupt "capitalism" to his advantage and now with this guy Obama he can do what he wishes. But see what happens in Syria next. Im sure some will want to really go "all in" as the failure of Georgian, Ukraine, etc has failed.

[SciFiAuthor]

I predict that he'll do it in stages. Crimea was a test of the waters, he wanted to see if he would meet real opposition from the world. He didn't, the opposition was less than token and the only real leader of importance that opposed him was Merkel.

So now he is free to expand. But timing is everything. He might be able to take a few more things this time, but he's likely to delay. In a year, he'll make a move on more of Ukraine and repeat the whole thing. Next he'll test NATO.

Unfortunately, he also sent a message to the planet that if you do it right, and plan it right, everyone will accept and give a pass to expansionism if you sell it just so. In a month we just watched our world order change from peace, commerce, no acceptance of expansionism, and working things out diplomatically back to pre-WWII thinking and might makes right. Others are now free to take advantage of this new thinking and it will cost us in the long term.

[PB the Deplorable]

... In a month we just watched our world order change from peace, commerce, no acceptance of expansionism, and working things out diplomatically back to pre-WWII thinking and might makes right. Others are now free to take advantage of this new thinking and it will cost us in the long term.

It took years of diplomacy, blood, and treasure to get to where the world had been - a less dangerous place where freedom, opportunity, and wealth creation had been on the rise nearly everywhere. 

For Obama to simply throw it away - either because he just doesn't give a crap, or because it doesn't fit into his juvenile Marxist worldview - is a disgrace.

[Mind Flayer Monk]

Putin is about to have his own Iraq War.