So who will be the Republican nominees for President and Vice President in 2016?

[somatichypermutation]

as absolutely stunning that it is, to both dems and repubs, Hillary Clinton is currently the most popular politician.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/08/us-usa-politics-clinton-idUSBRE9170NZ20130208

[somatichypermutation]

It doesn't sound to PPP pollsters:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/clinton-could-be-unstoppable-if-she-runs-in-2016.html

Chris Christie would be Clinton’s most threatening opponent in a general election. He trails her by only two points (42/44) in a head-to-head contest, and his overall favorability (+28) is higher than Clinton’s (+15). But she would trounce Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan by double-digit margins. Christie is more competitive against Clinton primarily because he is ahead of her by 18 points (47/29) among independents.

Of course Christie trails Rubio among Reps by mid-single digits, and they can throw away another election. The Dems fear Christie more than anyone.

Much as I would like two parties who were actually competitive, the Tea Party will take few more lumps before they die.  Steve King leads among Repubs to replace Se. Tom Harkin, but King loses the general against any Democrat...while the middle of the road Repub, Tom Latham, would likely win.

[Pragmier]

as absolutely stunning that it is, to both dems and repubs, Hillary Clinton is currently the most popular politician.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/08/us-usa-politics-clinton-idUSBRE9170NZ20130208

Here's the link to that poll: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/national/release-detail/?ReleaseID=1849

Notice anything missing? Christie was not included.

[somatichypermutation]

Here's the link to that poll: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/national/release-detail/?ReleaseID=1849

Notice anything missing? Christie was not included.

Great catch!  I missed that.  I do think Christie is the most popular Repub among all voters. 

[somatichypermutation]

Here is a recent poll, shows Hilllary most favorable by a wide margin.  Followed by Rice, then Christie/Ryan.

http://news.oneindia.in/2013/02/15/clinton-rice-top-poll-of-likely-us-presidential-contenders-1150835.html

If Rice runs she needs to clean up the speculation.  Reports were she owned a home with a woman.

Christie would have real trouble beating Ryan in Iowa, but could likely crush him in New Hampshire.

[BigDave]

It doesn't sound to PPP pollsters:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/clinton-could-be-unstoppable-if-she-runs-in-2016.html

Chris Christie would be Clinton’s most threatening opponent in a general election. He trails her by only two points (42/44) in a head-to-head contest, and his overall favorability (+28) is higher than Clinton’s (+15). But she would trounce Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan by double-digit margins. Christie is more competitive against Clinton primarily because he is ahead of her by 18 points (47/29) among independents.

Of course Christie trails Rubio among Reps by mid-single digits, and they can throw away another election. The Dems fear Christie more than anyone.

Christie is a Democrat mascarading as a Republican. I'd never vote for Him after He kissed Barry's ass

[somatichypermutation]

Christie is a Democrat mascarading as a Republican. I'd never vote for Him after He kissed Barry's ass

Elections generally prove our vote is worth exactly that, one vote.  Polling, good polling, is a much better indicator than what any single voter thinks.

You post also shows the Republican problem, namely the people who can win the primary cannot win the general election.  Republicans have lost several Senate seats and maybe the Presidency to this phenomena.

[PB the Deplorable]

Elections generally prove our vote is worth exactly that, one vote.  Polling, good polling, is a much better indicator than what any single voter thinks.

You post also shows the Republican problem, namely the people who can win the primary cannot win the general election.  Republicans have lost several Senate seats and maybe the Presidency to this phenomena.

Condi Rice, Joe Biden?  That's a good one.  Chris Christie, Hilary?  At this point in the process, this is about name recognition among voters.  It also tells possible candidates where they would start from, and it gives the media a story for those slow news days. 

And it tells idiots like George Noory that maybe they should run (ok, I just threw that one in there, but still).

And where's Rahm Emanuel - there is rumbling in Chicago he wants to run.  And who could blame him after watching a nobody from his same political machine be elected.  Twice.


After 2008, Barry's campaign never left places like Ohio.  I would suggest anyone who considers themselves a candidate at this point to add Ohio and the other swing states to their itinery that normally includes mostly just Iowa and NH

[The General]

W
rong kimosabi. Facts  about grandma interview

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2011/apr/07/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-president-obamas-grandmother-cau/

And the follow up...
http://www.politifact.com/letter-from-bishop-ron-mcrae/

[somatichypermutation]

And the follow up...
http://www.politifact.com/letter-from-bishop-ron-mcrae/

Which they posted for comedic effect (it is pretty hilarious after all, the eight grade dense writing style adds even more fun!).  They did not change their rating which states that your supposition is FALSE!

[BigDave]

Condi Rice, Joe Biden?  That's a good one.  Chris Christie, Hilary?  At this point in the process, this is about name recognition among voters.  It also tells possible candidates where they would start from, and it gives the media a story for those slow news days. 

And it tells idiots like George Noory that maybe they should run (ok, I just threw that one in there, but still).

And where's Rahm Emanuel - there is rumbling in Chicago he wants to run.  And who could blame him after watching a nobody from his same political machine be elected.  Twice.


After 2008, Barry's campaign never left places like Ohio.  I would suggest anyone who considers themselves a candidate at this point to add Ohio and the other swing states to their itinery that normally includes mostly just Iowa and NH

So is George Noory a Democrat or Republican? George Noory could run on a ticket with Richard C Hoagland. Their big cause could be bringing all the evidence of Alien life out in the open. :

[somatichypermutation]

So is George Noory a Democrat or Republican? George Noory could run on a ticket with Richard C Hoagland. Their big cause could be bringing all the evidence of Alien life out in the open. :

Noory is a pretty straight line Republican and Hoaglund lies enough to be a member of the US Senate!

[The General]

Which they posted for comedic effect (it is pretty hilarious after all, the eight grade dense writing style adds even more fun!).  They did not change their rating which states that your supposition is FALSE!

As opposed to your consistent incapability to use the language properly?
You, of all people, are criticizing another's grammar?
Well aren't you the height of erudition.



Lawyer, my ass.  Maybe a janitor for a law office.
Or perhaps an ambulance chasing DUI lawyer with a fake degree.

[MV/Liberace!]

P.S. - I just hope they put in ANYBODY who can beat a dem.

i don't see it happening.  i think the republican party is finished winning presidential elections.

[Yorkshire pud]

As opposed to your consistent incapability to use the language properly?
You, of all people, are criticizing another's grammar?
Well aren't you the height of erudition.



Lawyer, my ass.  Maybe a janitor for a law office.
Or perhaps an ambulance chasing DUI lawyer with a fake degree.

Once upon a time not that many years ago; my younger brother was openly mocked and dismissed by a tool who didn't believe he was what he is (The circumstances are not important). What he is, is a very accomplished and innovative low level software engineer. At 21 straight out of college he was programming flight simulators for the the RAF...several years ago he was designing firmware for the very first freeview set top boxes for Sony...not that long ago he was writing low level software for Blueray players and PS3 playstations (You have a playstation, thank my brother for his contribution in getting it developed); Now he writes software for some company that makes things for the military in the US and UK.

The point I'm making; sometimes calling someone's bluff can come unstuck.

[somatichypermutation]

As opposed to your consistent incapability to use the language properly?
You, of all people, are criticizing another's grammar?
Well aren't you the height of erudition.



Lawyer, my ass.  Maybe a janitor for a law office.
Or perhaps an ambulance chasing DUI lawyer with a fake degree.

You are dead fucking wrong and attack me instead of providing a single relevant fact.

Try to win on facts old man.  You can't.  I literally post the interview you have believed said one thing, and it shows you are dead wrong, and you attack me?  Thanks for for proving that some brains can't think, they are simply incapable of basic analysis. 

[Yorkshire pud]

You are dead fucking wrong and attack me instead of providing a single relevant fact.

Try to win on facts old man.  You can't.  I literally post the interview you have believed said one thing, and it shows you are dead wrong, and you attack me?  Thanks for for proving that some brains can't think, they are simply incapable of basic analysis.

Shhh S H he's got a uniform on; that makes him important and speshal... 

[Morgus]

So is George Noory a Democrat or Republican? George Noory could run on a ticket with Richard C Hoagland. Their big cause could be bringing all the evidence of Alien life out in the open. :

neither.
Noory has always claimed he is an independent with no party and has never voted in elections to maintain his neutrality... 

[somatichypermutation]

neither.
Noory has always claimed he is an independent with no party and has never voted in elections to maintain his neutrality... 

I don't listen much these days, but that certainly was not true when he started.  He was clearly a conservative, and even had a poll done of Coast listeners at one time wherein he was SHOCKED to find they were mostly progressives.  He talked about it on the air, George, clueless about his audience.  Is anyone surprised?

[somatichypermutation]

Here is a recent poll, shows Hilllary most favorable by a wide margin.  Followed by Rice, then Christie/Ryan.

http://news.oneindia.in/2013/02/15/clinton-rice-top-poll-of-likely-us-presidential-contenders-1150835.html

If Rice runs she needs to clean up the speculation.  Reports were she owned a home with a woman.

Christie would have real trouble beating Ryan in Iowa, but could likely crush him in New Hampshire.

I keep trying to turn this string back on topic.  Do I need to beg?

[PB the Deplorable]

i don't see it happening.  i think the republican party is finished winning presidential elections.

In my lifetime I've heard that after Nixon, then about the D's after Clinton.  The pendelum swings back and forth.  .  Each party starts off with about 37 or 38% (which is why 60% is a landslide) then tries to capture the so-called Moderates, the Independents - which is unfortunate.  The people that know the least, care the least, follow it the least end up making the decision.  There are more Conservatives than anything else - a plurality, but the Left and the Libs have the media and the bureaucracy on their side.

[Juan]

The Natural Born clause (Sec 1, Article 2) in the Constitution reads:

"No person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty-five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States."

It's not clear how Alexander Hamilton would be excluded by this.

I had forgotten about the grandfathering clause.  I wonder who was considered a citizen at the time of the adoption?  Maybe Hamilton, born in Martinique IIRC, wasn't as probably his parents were not citizens.

I think this issue will be settled soon, either politically or by the courts.  We have a lot of children of immigrants who are achieving political success.  It won't be long before one of them runs for president.  Possibly in 2016 the Republican would be Jindal, Rubio, Haley or Cruz.

Wow UFO Fill, so many legal misrepresentations in one post.  Not sure I can take them all on, but the Wiki on this is pretty good: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural-born-citizen_clause

just a couple:  Congress cannot interpret the Constitution, I am sure you know that.

Dicta specifically means the Court is commenting but not ruling or creating precedent, thus what I stated is correct.

Interesting that someone who claims to be a lawyer cites a wiki article rather than a primary source.

Interesting that someone who claims to be a lawyer fails to understand that the Congress and the president interpret the Constitution every day.

Interesting that someone who claims to be a lawyer correctly defines dicta, but seems to fail to understand it's application. 

Consider Minor v. Happersett, 88 U.S. 162 (1874) (see, that's how you properly cite a Supreme Court case - a primary source) which is frequently cited by folks as saying natural born citizens are those whose parents are also citizens.  Here's what the case actually says:
"No person except a natural-born citizen or a citizen of the United States at the time of the adoption of the Constitution shall be eligible to the office of President, [Footnote 7]"and that Congress shall have power "to establish a uniform rule of naturalization."  Thus, new citizens may be born or they may be created by naturalization.The Constitution does not in words say who shall be natural-born citizens.  Resort must be had elsewhere to ascertain that.  At common law, with the nomenclature of which the framers of the Constitution were familiar, it was never doubted that all children born in a country of parents who were its citizens became themselves, upon their birth, citizens also.  These were natives or natural-born citizens, as distinguished from aliens or foreigners.  Some authorities go further and include as citizens children born within the jurisdiction without reference to the citizenship of theirparents.  As to this class there have been doubts, but never as to the first.  For the purposes of this case, it is not necessary to solve these doubts.

Here's the rub - the case involved a woman's right to vote.  The plaintiff, a citizen born in Missouri, claimed that the 14th Amendment gave her the right to vote. The Missouri Constitution gave only men the right to vote.  Before the above quoted language, the Court had decided that the 14th Amendment did not change the right of states to limit who could vote.  The 14th Amendment only recognized citizenship - not the rights of citizens.
Thus, any commentary about natural born citizens was, what SH? Dicta.  As the Court says, "For the purposes of this case, it is not necessary to solve these doubts.

Now, however, I suspect the court would find the 14th Amendment does limit the rights of states, as it has done since Mapp vs. Ohio 367 U.S. 643 (1961).

[MV/Liberace!]

In my lifetime I've heard that after Nixon, then about the D's after Clinton.  The pendelum swings back and forth.

you're right about pendulums and whatnot, but i think something has fundamentally changed against the republicans.  the number of people on government assistance is now larger than ever before in this country.  the democrats have that demographic absolutely locked down, and it's growing.  the only thing the republicans can do to mitigate the leak is to be more like the democrats, which will only further alienate the real conservatives in the party (as evidenced by the lackluster performance of liberal/moderates mccain and romney).  they're fucked.

[I Doubt It]

There will be NO nominees from the Republican Party in 2016.  The party will implode and cease to exist or will be replaced by the Three Stooges or someone similar.  The Republican Party does not need a candidate, it needs a casket.

[Elflord]

IF Fort Rock runs in 2016, he will get my vote.

[MV/Liberace!]

and by the way... i still think newt gingrich was probably the only candidate in the 2012 primaries who could have beat obama in the general.  yeah yeah, he has his flaws.  who doesn't.


edit:  oh, and that's not to say i would have been happy to see a gingrich presidency.

[analog kid]

I have a feeling it will be Marco Rubio with South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley as Vice Presidential candidate. They would,IMO,have a good chance of beating Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden.

Dukakis had his tank, Quayle had his potatoe, Dean had his scream, Rubio has his insatiable, unquenchable thirst.

[BigDave]

Dukakis had his tank, Quayle had his potatoe, Dean had his scream, Rubio has his insatiable, unquenchable thirst.

So,If you're a Republican you can't drink from a waterbottle? Truly pathetic

[somatichypermutation]

and by the way... i still think newt gingrich was probably the only candidate in the 2012 primaries who could have beat obama in the general.  yeah yeah, he has his flaws.  who doesn't.


edit:  oh, and that's not to say i would have been happy to see a gingrich presidency.

I saw Gingrich in person in the primaries, once in a small group setting.  To say the guy was an arrogant know-it-all is a gross understatement (yes, even worse than Obama).  I really do not think that would fly in an election where far too many minds are made up based on the likeability of the candidate.

[somatichypermutation]

So,If you're a Republican you can't drink from a waterbottle? Truly pathetic

And if you are a Democrat you can't use a teleprompter.