Coronavirus 2020

[whoozit]

Hindsight will only get you so far; things looked pretty unknown a couple months ago.  We are a lot more certain of the danger now.  The problem is politicians who now have the responsibility for millions of lives (because they took it, a fact I suspect more than a few are regretting) and know they will be held to account for every death that happens, will be exceedingly careful giving it back.

I don't think it's entirely just to impute dictatorial motives to them even if they're from another party -- that requires psychic-level woo -- but being politicians they are far more in touch with the mood of their constituencies than, say, I am.  I'm glad some places like GA were brave enough to do something different from everybody else because it's a sort of limited test case for the rest of the country.  It's been three weeks since they reopened and the new cases have gone down, even with more testing, which should encourage other people to follow.  If GA is successful, even in their urban areas, maintaining the strict lockdowns elsewhere will be really hard to justify.

The one part of my old worldview model that still holds is that anyone that wants to make a living telling others what they can and can’t do is highly suspect.  Perhaps people will now start to question the idea of being a politician as an acceptable carrier choice.  However, I don’t think enough people see things this way.

[SredniVashtar]

I think a few people (myself included) are finding ourselves in that boat. I don't think I ever would have believed that individuals would demand that the government lock them down for a virus with such a small fatality rate. I don't think that anybody thought that the world economy could withstand months of shut down.

There are a few aspects of the reality that I used to live in that no longer appear to be valid.

We've been through this. The fatality rate might not be high but we know that it's very infectious, hence the lockdown. If the level of infections gets out of control then so will the deaths. I think you're so locked into your own way of thinking that you can't see a very simple calculation.

[SredniVashtar]

The one part of my old worldview model that still holds is that anyone that wants to make a living telling others what they can and can’t do is highly suspect.  Perhaps people will now start to question the idea of being a politician as an acceptable carrier choice.  However, I don’t think enough people see things this way.

Your Freudian slip is showing.

[whoozit]

We've been through this. The fatality rate might not be high but we know that it's very infectious, hence the lockdown. If the level of infections gets out of control then so will the deaths. I think you're so locked into your own way of thinking that you can't see a very simple calculation.

I think that politician and the media hype every situation into potential death.  I once thought that only the National Enquirer (not sure of your equivalent) would run the headline Hangnails: The new scourge sure to bring the end of humanity.  Somehow we all survived the avian flu, swine flu, SARS, MERS and Ebola.  Has everyone forgotten the story of the little boy that cried wolf?  No doubt Coronavirus one is killing many, but we are far from the tens of millions millions threatened.  Also don’t forget that initially we were told that this was not a worry but then it changed to we’re all going to die.  The ridiculousness of the “officials” reaction to this has been sublime.  I don’t think WOTR is locked into a way of thinking.  I think you may be frightened of looking at things objectively and realizing How messed up  the governments of the world really are.

P.S. Eventually the people carrying “The End Is Nigh” signs will be right.  I still don’t see the need to take them seriously.

P.P.S.  I forgot to mention the mount of politicization about this Pandemic leads me to believe it is not as big of a threat as stated.  I like to believe that when Godzilla shows up and starts destroying the world very few will be pro-Godzilla.  Politics seem to vanish when the rubber hits the road.

[whoozit]

Your Freudian slip is showing.

That is a good one but unintentional and all of Apple’s fault.

[ItsOver]

I think that politician and the media hype every situation into potential death.  I once thought that only the National Enquirer (not sure of your equivalent) would run the headline Hangnails: The new scourge sure to bring the end of humanity...

Fear porn sells.  Nothing like a "we're all going to die, naow!" headline to get the clicks.  "It's just another wonderful day in the neighborhood" doesn't usually bring in the bucks, unless you were Mr. Rogers.

[SredniVashtar]

I think that politician and the media hype every situation into potential death.  I once thought that only the National Enquirer (not sure of your equivalent) would run the headline Hangnails: The new scourge sure to bring the end of humanity.  Somehow we all survived the avian flu, swine flu, SARS, MERS and Ebola.  Has everyone forgotten the story of the little boy that cried wolf?  No doubt Coronavirus one is killing many, but we are far from the tens of millions millions threatened.  Also don’t forget that initially we were told that this was not a worry but then it changed to we’re all going to die.  The ridiculousness of the “officials” reaction to this has been sublime.  I don’t think WOTR is locked into a way of thinking.  I think you may be frightened of looking at things objectively and realizing How messed up  the governments of the world really are.

P.S. Eventually the people carrying “The End Is Nigh” signs will be right.  I still don’t see the need to take them seriously.

The boy who cried wolf is a terrible analogy. First, there were wolves (viruses) in every case. Second, the kid was eventually right and got killed. Go and think about it some more.

Governments around the world, by and large, appear to have got a better grip on it than the US and UK. Unfortunately we are both suffering under feckless incompetents who couldn't be trusted to run a bath, let alone a country.

You're closing in on 100,000 deaths, and you have no way of knowing how this will develop further. I'm not unsympathetic to the arguments of people like you. If the government is denying people a livelihood they need to compensate you accordingly, but unfortunately most of you apportion blame to the wrong people. I can't believe what a shambles US politics is. I don't know how you let it continue, but we aren't much better.

[whoozit]

The boy who cried wolf is a terrible analogy. First, there were wolves (viruses) in every case. Second, the kid was eventually right and got killed. Go and think about it some more.

Governments around the world, by and large, appear to have got a better grip on it than the US and UK. Unfortunately we are both suffering under feckless incompetents who couldn't be trusted to run a bath, let alone a country.

You're closing in on 100,000 deaths, and you have no way of knowing how this will develop further. I'm not unsympathetic to the arguments of people like you. If the government is denying people a livelihood they need to compensate you accordingly, but unfortunately most of you apportion blame to the wrong people. I can't believe what a shambles US politics is. I don't know how you let it continue, but we aren't much better.

It’s not a terrible analogy if you think about it.  Not all viruses are wolves, but neither are they puppies. I grant it is inelegant, but I couldn’t think of a better one.

I agree governments are incompetent.  I think it is because a career in politics is attractive to narcissistic psychopaths who care nothing about the people. I know there is probably an exception to this somewhere but I can’t think of one.  Absolute power corrupts absolutely.  I am hoping this latest event causes many to rethink how they cast votes in the future.

Unlike some physicians on the forum I like differences of opinion.  They are fun, healthy and necessary in any society to keep it from ending.  Too much of anything will kill you.

[WOTR]

We've been through this. The fatality rate might not be high but we know that it's very infectious, hence the lockdown. If the level of infections gets out of control then so will the deaths. I think you're so locked into your own way of thinking that you can't see a very simple calculation.

Yes. Better to cower in your basement like our prime minister Justine. Of course, somebody is eventually going to have to take a risk and go to work to continue to pay for his salary. I suppose I should be thankful it is me.

Yes, it is infectious. But aside from praying for a vaccine or taking your chances, what are the options? I'm sorry, but the death rate is low, and from the start I have been able to do the math. Statistically, I am likely to make it through fine. Or course, I may drop dead as well if I get it- but I may also die in a wreck on the way to work or drop dead of a heart attack from eating McDonalds. There are risks to everything. Most of us weigh them and then order a big mac.

Now if I were 80 years old, obese with diabetes I would probably lock myself in my house and refuse to leave. But demanding that the world be locked down for the next 1-15 years (depending on when / if they get a vaccine and how quickly this mutates) just is not  an option that I'm willing to go for.

Before you go thinking that I'm just a reckless jackass, let me give you a chart from your very own BBC. Your chances of dying from the disease are almost the same as your chances of dying form all other causes combined this year (and that includes all the obese half dead walking time bombs with preexisting conditions. Most healthy people will be fine.) Yes, I'm willing to double my chances of death by contracting the damn disease just to be done with it.*



*I realize there is no guarantee of immunity, but statistics say that you likely are with only a very small percent getting a second infection. And the jury is out on how long it lasts. And while most experts believe that a second bout when any possible immunity wears off would be less severe, that remains unknown at this time.

[WOTR]

I don't think it's entirely just to impute dictatorial motives to them even if they're from another party -- that requires psychic-level woo -- but being politicians they are far more in touch with the mood of their constituencies than, say, I am.  I'm glad some places like GA were brave enough to do something different from everybody else because it's a sort of limited test case for the rest of the country.  It's been three weeks since they reopened and the new cases have gone down, even with more testing, which should encourage other people to follow.  If GA is successful, even in their urban areas, maintaining the strict lockdowns elsewhere will be really hard to justify.

My guilty pleasure has been keeping a tab open with Georgia's COVID info. I will be honest- when they first said they were lifting restrictions as fast as they did, I thought it a very poor idea. I really did think they would see a massive spike in deaths. But that has not materialized. I know the case number is dropping as well... But I ignore case numbers figuring that death numbers tell a much more accurate story (given false positives, false negatives, inconsistent testing between states and countries.)

Although I thought they would see a spike, I also recognized that their government was actually following the will of the majority of the people. To me, that is what they should have done, and I was impressed.

What is interesting is how many news outlets reported Georgia opening. Most almost were making fun of them. Now that things appear to be going alright (not perfect- but not too badly) there are no stories. It is almost as though they don't want to let the world know that Georgia is starting to function and it was not Armageddon.

That is him.  He was also the best QVC sales critter of all time...........

I was unaware that "of mice and men" was a christmas tale. I think he probably was not the best host for selling garbage on television.

[SredniVashtar]

Before you go thinking that I'm just a reckless jackass, let me give you a chart from your very own BBC. Your chances of dying from the disease are almost the same as your chances of dying form all other causes combined this year (and that includes all the obese half dead walking time bombs with preexisting conditions. Most healthy people will be fine.) Yes, I'm willing to double my chances of death by contracting the damn disease just to be done with it.*

This is what I mean about being stuck inside a mental box. There's an obvious inference here which you are unable to draw. I'm not even going to bother pointing it out because you clearly won't see it anyway.

[whoozit]

This is what I mean about being stuck inside a mental box. There's an obvious inference here which you are unable to draw. I'm not even going to bother pointing it out because you clearly won't see it anyway.

Matthew 7:5.

[SredniVashtar]

Matthew 7:5.

Genesis 1:22

[SredniVashtar]

Seriously, darlings. That graph was put out by Imperial College, who have been at the forefront of the campaign to take this virus seriously. Do you honestly think they would put out something that intended to show that there's 'nothing to see here'? I've got two naughty chairs set up for WOTR and whoozit. You can discuss graphs and bad analogies in a distant corner of the BG common room, with appropriate social-distancing, of course.

[whoozit]

Seriously, darlings. That graph was put out by Imperial College, who have been at the forefront of the campaign to take this virus seriously. Do you honestly think they would put out something that intended to show that there's 'nothing to see here'? I've got two naughty chairs set up for WOTR and whoozit. You can discuss graphs and bad analogies in a distant corner of the BG common room, with appropriate social-distancing, of course.

Let’s do some back of the envelope calculations.  In 2015 57 million people died.  In 2018 the population was 7.594 billion.  Let’s not quibble and I’ll round it to 7.6 billion.  Whats 6 million amongst friends?  Before you put on the analogy police uniform that using 2015 and 2018 data is not an apple and oranges situation.  It’s more of a lemon and orange thing, keeping it in the citrus fruits. 

The chart basically states that if you catch Coronavirus you have doubled your chances to die.  Let’s assume everyone catches the disease.  The we can assume that the number of deaths double to 114,000,000.  I get the skewing of death rates at different ages but that is immaterial to this analysis.  It’s not quite that simple because it would actually be less than that because you can’t die twice (unless your Senda) and less people would die of other causes.  So if we take 114,000,000/7,600,000,000 that is a 1.5% mortality rate from the disease.  That literally decimates the decimation predictions if we stick to the true meaning of the word instead of the current hijacking of it. 

Let’s assume Coronavirus is actually 4 times as likely to kill you. 285,000,000 million dead is only 3.75% of the population.  Still not in decimation territory.  There are some wackos that would argue we need to kill orders of magnitude more.   I don’t want to see anyone die (exception of Senda) but life must go on.   The real issue is no one will ever publish the deaths caused by the coming implosion of the global economy.  I suspect that number may be within a order of magnitude of the actual Coronavirus victims.  I suspect those numbers will also be reported as COVID deaths further inflating the death rate as must be done to make it statistically relevant.   I realize this is a gross oversimplification but I think in terms of orders of magnitude not to far off.  Therefore I reserve the naughty chair for you.  I will be there to circle the chair chanting shame at you.  I won’t speak for WOTR, his mask frightens me.

As an aside I wonder what lists I have landed on having Coronavirus, COVID and Senda in the same post.

[K_Dubb]

The one part of my old worldview model that still holds is that anyone that wants to make a living telling others what they can and can’t do is highly suspect.  Perhaps people will now start to question the idea of being a politician as an acceptable carrier choice.  However, I don’t think enough people see things this way.

Ha ha ha.  My version of it literally since a teenager has been pastors policemen and politicians:  everyone who actually wants to be one should be disqualified.  It has never proven popular.

[K_Dubb]

If the government is denying people a livelihood they need to compensate you accordingly...

I don't understand why this is even controversial.  There are plenty of precedents, eminent domain and so forth, that transcend ideology.

[whoozit]

I don't understand why this is even controversial.  There are plenty of precedents, eminent domain and so forth, that transcend ideology.

The problem is that thing like eminent domain are abused.  There are many more cases where it is used fairly but unfortunately the world is not digital.  It is analog and there is black and white and gray.  Those gray areas are the tricky part.

[K_Dubb]

My guilty pleasure has been keeping a tab open with Georgia's COVID info. I will be honest- when they first said they were lifting restrictions as fast as they did, I thought it a very poor idea. I really did think they would see a massive spike in deaths. But that has not materialized. I know the case number is dropping as well... But I ignore case numbers figuring that death numbers tell a much more accurate story (given false positives, false negatives, inconsistent testing between states and countries.)

Although I thought they would see a spike, I also recognized that their government was actually following the will of the majority of the people. To me, that is what they should have done, and I was impressed.

What is interesting is how many news outlets reported Georgia opening. Most almost were making fun of them. Now that things appear to be going alright (not perfect- but not too badly) there are no stories. It is almost as though they don't want to let the world know that Georgia is starting to function and it was not Armageddon.

Agreed!  It would be great if we forgot about the moral posturing and did our best to see different approaches as good-faith efforts to confront an unknown threat and learned from what works, but instant recrimination is irresistible.  Fortunately the news outlets are no longer arbiters since the public has increasingly been willing to do exactly what they are told not to do -- it is a return to the acknowledged partisan yellow journalism of a hundred years ago or more where nobody really takes it seriously and most people can strip the factual content from the agenda.  It is chaotic and loud but we are ultimately better off this way.

[SredniVashtar]

Let’s do some back of the envelope calculations.  In 2015 57 million people died.  In 2018 the population was 7.594 billion.  Let’s not quibble and I’ll round it to 7.6 billion.  Whats 6 million amongst friends?  Before you put on the analogy police uniform that using 2015 and 2018 data is not an apple and oranges situation.  It’s more of a lemon and orange thing, keeping it in the citrus fruits. 

The chart basically states that if you catch Coronavirus you have doubled your chances to die.  Let’s assume everyone catches the disease.  The we can assume that the number of deaths double to 114,000,000.  I get the skewing of death rates at different ages but that is immaterial to this analysis.  It’s not quite that simple because it would actually be less than that because you can’t die twice (unless your Senda) and less people would die of other causes.  So if we take 114,000,000/7,600,000,000 that is a 1.5% mortality rate from the disease.  That literally decimates the decimation predictions if we stick to the true meaning of the word instead of the current hijacking of it. 

Let’s assume Coronavirus is actually 4 times as likely to kill you. 285,000,000 million dead is only 3.75% of the population.  Still not in decimation territory.  There are some wackos that would argue we need to kill orders of magnitude more.   I don’t want to see anyone die (exception of Senda) but life must go on.   The real issue is no one will ever publish the deaths caused by the coming implosion of the global economy.  I suspect that number may be within a order of magnitude of the actual Coronavirus victims.  I suspect those numbers will also be reported as COVID deaths further inflating the death rate as must be done to make it statistically relevant.   I realize this is a gross oversimplification but I think in terms of orders of magnitude not to far off.  Therefore I reserve the naughty chair for you.  I will be there to circle the chair chanting shame at you.  I won’t speak for WOTR, his mask frightens me.

As an aside I wonder what lists I have landed on having Coronavirus, COVID and Senda in the same post.

This is why I'm going to separate you and WOTR. He's a bad influence on you, you could have just posted Stalin's quote about one death being a tragedy and a million a mere statistic. Instead we get all this gubbins which simply amounts to the same thing. Yeah, you can toss around all these numbers like they don't really mean anything. You also need to factor in the needless additional deaths because health services don't have the resources to treat other illnesses, people too scared to visit hospitals and developing chronic conditions etc. It's a concatenation of events that people are trying to avoid. Don't forget, as well, that this is a novel virus which we cannot predict with any accuracy. It might move away from simply killing off the bed-shitters and going after people like you if we don't take steps to limit its spread.

People are much more robust during difficult times than you realise. You only pretended to be in WW2, we actually lived through it and the figures for suicide were exceptionally low despite living with near-starvation and the constant threat of being bombed.

I'm going to take away that naughty chair and make you sit on the floor and let WOTR ramble on at you. It's time you learned what pain is.

[K_Dubb]

The problem is that thing like eminent domain are abused.  There are many more cases where it is used fairly but unfortunately the world is not digital.  It is analog and there is black and white and gray.  Those gray areas are the tricky part.

Here I see the moralists who want to make gosh-darned sure no undeserving folks see a penny from the government as the enemies of the general good.  Even ill-gotten cash will be spent, and benefits everybody.  Meanwhile farmers from E WA have trucked potatoes (God bless them!) across the mountains to distribute at a couple of sports stadiums here -- "these are potatoes intended for fries and tater tots that aren't big and perfect, but are still delicious!"  Literally small potatoes.

[SredniVashtar]

I don't understand why this is even controversial.  There are plenty of precedents, eminent domain and so forth, that transcend ideology.

My local supermarket has just got flour again. Unfortunately they only sell them in 35lb bags. I don't know how a frail little willowwand like you would manage. Perhaps hire a strapping immigrant to carry it home for you. It would be a lot more wholesome than what you normally hire them to do.

[K_Dubb]

My local supermarket has just got flour again. Unfortunately they only sell them in 35lb bags. I don't know how a frail little willowwand like you would manage. Perhaps hire a strapping immigrant to carry it home for you. It would be a lot more wholesome than what you normally hire them to do.

Oh yes I have mine!  And I lift double that above my head many times per day!  (And immediately thereafter cool my florid face with some chilled rosewater, of course.)

Actually I have mostly been walking to the store for exercise's sake, since I could always say it was a necessary trip if I was ever challenged, resolved to eat no more than I can carry home in a giant surplus Swiss-made army backpack which has been humbling, especially when the flour finally came in, but it has done wonders for my posture.  I have never been stronger -- I will never be an ox but a little gangling calf-thing, maybe?

[whoozit]

This is why I'm going to separate you and WOTR. He's a bad influence on you, you could have just posted Stalin's quote about one death being a tragedy and a million a mere statistic. Instead we get all this gubbins which simply amounts to the same thing. Yeah, you can toss around all these numbers like they don't really mean anything. You also need to factor in the needless additional deaths because health services don't have the resources to treat other illnesses, people too scared to visit hospitals and developing chronic conditions etc. It's a concatenation of events that people are trying to avoid. Don't forget, as well, that this is a novel virus which we cannot predict with any accuracy. It might move away from simply killing off the bed-shitters and going after people like you if we don't take steps to limit its spread.

People are much more robust during difficult times than you realise. You only pretended to be in WW2, we actually lived through it and the figures for suicide were exceptionally low despite living with near-starvation and the constant threat of being bombed.

I'm going to take away that naughty chair and make you sit on the floor and let WOTR ramble on at you. It's time you learned what pain is.

Don’t be frightened by the fact that I scored a 0 in feeling on the Meyers-Brigg test.  I feel for all this impacted by the deaths.  All I am trying to say is I think the “cure” will have similar death rates if everything was fairly reported.  How on earth to get those true numbers is impossible so my argument is largely moot.  I think everyone can agree that life will eventually lead to death.  If that fact has become politicized we’re all going to be treated like your and K_Dubb’s playtime.

[SredniVashtar]

It just shows that there might be lifestyle changes but they are not necessarily bad. I think the idea that people will be throwing themselves off buildings just because they can't afford to go to Red Lobster no mo' is ridiculous and far-fetched. Whoozit's probably 400lb and faints at the thought of exercise, but if our resident Shirley Temple here can start to put on muscle then anyone can.

[SredniVashtar]

Oh yes I have mine!  And I lift double that above my head many times per day!  (And immediately thereafter cool my florid face with some chilled rosewater, of course.)

Actually I have mostly been walking to the store for exercise's sake, since I could always say it was a necessary trip if I was ever challenged, resolved to eat no more than I can carry home in a giant surplus Swiss-made army backpack which has been humbling, especially when the flour finally came in, but it has done wonders for my posture.  I have never been stronger -- I will never be an ox but a little gangling calf-thing, maybe?

I can't imagine what you do with a cement bag of flour. The resulting flan frenzy or sponge spasm must leave you exhausted.

[K_Dubb]

I can't imagine what you do with a cement bag of flour. The resulting flan frenzy or sponge spasm must leave you exhausted.

Buns, my dear.  Sweet buns, everywhere!

[K_Dubb]

Genesis 1:22

Oh you got that far!  I'm impressed.

[GravitySucks]

Yes. Better to cower in your basement like our prime minister Justine. Of course, somebody is eventually going to have to take a risk and go to work to continue to pay for his salary. I suppose I should be thankful it is me.

Yes, it is infectious. But aside from praying for a vaccine or taking your chances, what are the options? I'm sorry, but the death rate is low, and from the start I have been able to do the math. Statistically, I am likely to make it through fine. Or course, I may drop dead as well if I get it- but I may also die in a wreck on the way to work or drop dead of a heart attack from eating McDonalds. There are risks to everything. Most of us weigh them and then order a big mac.

Now if I were 80 years old, obese with diabetes I would probably lock myself in my house and refuse to leave. But demanding that the world be locked down for the next 1-15 years (depending on when / if they get a vaccine and how quickly this mutates) just is not  an option that I'm willing to go for.

Before you go thinking that I'm just a reckless jackass, let me give you a chart from your very own BBC. Your chances of dying from the disease are almost the same as your chances of dying form all other causes combined this year (and that includes all the obese half dead walking time bombs with preexisting conditions. Most healthy people will be fine.) Yes, I'm willing to double my chances of death by contracting the damn disease just to be done with it.*



*I realize there is no guarantee of immunity, but statistics say that you likely are with only a very small percent getting a second infection. And the jury is out on how long it lasts. And while most experts believe that a second bout when any possible immunity wears off would be less severe, that remains unknown at this time.

Being an essential worker is noble and people should be proud of their role.  Most are. Until they learn the are feedstock dor the Essential Oil industry.

[whoozit]

Genesis 1:22

At least you are doing your part, you big fruit. 
I held on this long to post but couldn’t refrain any longer.