BellGab.com Archive

Ding Ding ! First 15 minutes of his second show of the year and Norry is already talking about the year is going too fast.

The thing that gets me most about Trump is how much of a p*ssy he is. Did you see how "triggered" he was over a sign the other day. This is the guy who wants everybody walking into a library to be packing heat but the guy sh*t his pants if somebody carries an anti-Trump sign.

And the whining, his entire speech is normally 75% whining. It's just so pathetic. Jebus Man up. I am no Hillary fan but she's at least tougher than this panty waste. It seriously question his supporters who want to follow  this cry baby.

Noory was more full of sh*t than normal last night. How often did he say "His inside sources" F*ck you Jorch you have no inside sources. Or is it the same BS source that Fox's Bret Baier had to apologize for and will d*ckhead Jorch correct himself tonight.

He also went with the classic, we don't take sides and you know we don't do to much politics here. What an absolute turd.

Quote from: RealCool Daddio on November 02, 2016, 09:46:44 AM
Imagine how this thread would have blown up if it was a black or Muslim dude.  Instead, nothing but crickets from Bellgab's law and order crowd.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/us/iowa-police-shooting/

Not just here but general media as well. It's no surprise. You don't here "Why isn't the white community speaking out!!!"

Quote from: akwilly on November 02, 2016, 11:18:15 PM
Go Raiders lol

All the Charlie Brown's of sports are finally able to make out with that red headed girl he's crushing on all the time

Saying that the Cleveland Browns will always bring the universe to its predictable outcome

Cavs winning nba title. Cubs the world series. Unknown Leicester city winning English soccer title. Strange strange year.

Classic game, classic series. But baseball really need to get these games in at a better time table. How many people had to go to bed in the east coast  as the game approached 1 am

Excuse me as I put my life savings on buffalo Bills superbowl champions

Speaking of bad announcers. If noory hosted a sports show his lead story would be a random nfl or nhl game tonight

I think the only fair thing to do is let the Supreme Court rule on the winner.... Or the house of reps

What did I say not believe this script in a movie. It's a work of fiction

So is this when the fire ball crashes into the earth, therefore having no winner

What the F! SERIOUSLY.

There is not a thread title more appropriate  than this one for 2016

Wow game 7 coming up. If this was a movie we would all sarcastically  roll our eyes on how cliche it is.

Of course a tie game would have happened  in England

The Republicans have brought it onto themselves with the Hispanic voting problem. GWB split the Hispanic vote 40/58 vs Kerry in 2004. It's the last two elections that  McCain got 31% and Romney 27%.

The betting markets certainly reacted to this weekends news but it seems to have stabilized today with little money even going back to Clinton after a run ton Trump on Friday and Saturday.
-paddy power         Clinton 2/7   (75%)      Trump  9/2  (25%)  [Trump gain 8%]
-William Hill            Clinton -300  (72%)    Trump  +225  (28%)  [Trump gain 11%]
-Sportsbet              Clinton 1.30   (74%)    Trump   3.50   (26%) [Trump gain 8%]
-Bodog                   Clinton -350   (73%)      Trump +220   (27%) [Trump gain 8%] 
-Sportsbook            Clinton 1.28   (76%)     Trump  3.80   (24%)  [Trump gain 7%]

The average now is Clinton 74% - 26% Trump  a 8% difference in Trump direction from last week. Even though a big improvement from last week for Trump it still doesn't match his high on mid-September where Trump had 38% of the betting market.  RCP betting odds gives Clinton a 81%/19% chance (3% improvement for Trump). 538 has it 78%/22% for Clinton in Now Cast and polls only (9% improvement for Trump).... As for the NFL odds. Trumps odds of winning is still lower than the most lopsided game on the NFL schedule which is favorite New England at underdog Buffalo. Last week Clinton/Bengals defeated Trump/Browns giving Hillary a 5-3 record for the season

Senate

I can't find too many betting odds for the senate, I only found two
-PaddyPower:  Dems 3/10 (77%)  Repubs 21/10 (33%)
-Sportsbet:      Dems 1.30 (77%)  Repubs  3.10 (33%)
I would personally like more than just two to get a more wide range reading.

Non tossup electoral map

Trump reclaimed Arizona (barely 5-3 on prediction sites) and Ohio  (5 red, 1 blue, 2 ties) Florida has become more debatable this week as well with it going from unanimous blue to 6-2 blue this week.

538                     Dem 323       Repub 215     
electiongraph     Dem 300       Repub 238   
270/Sabato         Dem 358       Repub 180    [Iowa-6 & Utah-6 split] 
electionproje       Dem 333       Repub 205   
270/Rothbrg      Dem 334       Repub 204       [Ohio-18 & Iowa-6 split]
RCP                    Dem 304       Repub 234   
E-vote                Dem 335        Repub 203      [Ohio-18 & Iowa-6  split]   
270/Prinston       Dem 326        Repub 212     [Iowa-6 split]     
MY AVERAGE      Dem 323        Repub 215 [This week pickup; REPUB: Arizona & Ohio]

Ouch didn't expect it either. But at least it connects some dots on what actually happened.

Wait now we care about sex stories? Trump and his supporters can make the Olympic gymnastics team on how quick and simple they change their stance on what a news story and what isn't.

[correction "light color map" is between 3.5% and  6.0%]  Trying to figure what you disagree with?  Texas state polls have multiple times fallen recently under that range during the last week. As for 3 out of 6 swing states being Romney states, again NC is slightly in blue (2.6% for Clinton), Arizona is about 50/50 (technically 1.2% for HC)  and Georgia seems to be averging around (3.1% for Trump) I would consider them in the top 6 closest states right now along with Ohio (1.2% for DT), Florida (2.8% for HC) and Iowa (3.2% for DT)

If you don't like that, you are not going to like this. The news is pushing of the polls tightening but Clinton lead overall on the average is still very comfortable. We got a new batch of polls across the board. Of course this was all done before today news.

-Public Policy Polling   Clinton 46%  -    40%  Trump -   AltParty 5%  (10/21)   [Clinton rose from 4% to 6%)
-Ipsos Reid /Reuters   Clinton 41%   -   33% Trump -     AltParty  17%  (10/24)  [Trump gained 1% to go from 9% to 8% down)
-Pew Research           Clinton 48%    -   41.5%  Trump  - AltParty  10.5% (10/25) [Trump gained 1.5% to go from 8% down to 6.5% down)
-AP/GFK                     Clinton  51.5%    - 38% Trump -   AltParty   10.5%     (10/24)(Huge Clinton jump from 5.5% to 13%)
-YouGov/Economist    Clinton  47.5%  -     44% Trump -    AltParty  7%      (10/26) (Trump cut Clinton lead from 5.5% to 3.5%)
AVERAGE              CLINTON 45.5%  -   38 %  TRUMP - AltParty  10.5%  (removing non-voters: Clinton 48% - Trump 41% - AltParty 11% )

Averaging it all out Clinton still has a 7.5% lead. YouGov has it the closest, while AP/GFK has it by a landslide.  But looking at the three top polls they fall under the 6 % - 8% range which is where I assume they are as of now.   

SENATE

The Senate though seems like it going to be really close. The prediction sites are split on who going to take it (note 2 independents sits with Dems)
-538 says Dems win it 52-48
-Election Projection give it a 50-50 tie
-RCP has Repub holding power  52-48
-electoralvote has Repub holding it 51-48 with a tie.

I am actually really curious about the discussion after the election when everybody can be more  honest. Let's face it we are all right now super partisan (both sides) that we all try to spin as much as possible and doing so say ridiculously things at times. Hopefully in a couple of weeks when it's all said and done we can all step back and have a more realistic and clear headed discussion of what worked and what didn't in each campaign. I thought both had some major flaws in the campaign, heck Obama team would have destroyed both of them,  heck I have a feeling Romney team would have done pretty well. There is some truly amateur  hour on both sides, Trump team might be historically bad though.

Quote from: 21st Century Man on October 23, 2016, 11:34:44 AM
The poll to watch is the IBD/TPP poll which has Trump up by 2.  It was the most accurate poll just prior to the 2012 election.

I been hearing a lot of that also. But I'd love to hear the formula people are getting to say that it is the most accurate. IBD final results had Obama by one, even though Obama won by 4. There her a handfull of pollsters that got it closer to four including ABC Obama+3 and Pew Obama+3 as seen here in RCP final pollster results http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html But either way I still would rather average a top 4 or 5 instead of putting all my trust in one basket, even if they had the best record. An anomaly can happen even to the best of them, I would think a top 4 or 5 protect yourself from that.

First off the positive news for Trump, Pennsylvania has gone from solid blue (+7.3) back to light blue with a(+5.3 lead for HC) Now the bad news, seeing Texas fall into light red (+4.7 for DT) that is such a huge difference maker if that ever becomes a legit swing state in the future. Another problem is half of the closest swing states (within 3.5 points and less) are old Romney states, Trump really need those wrapped up so he can focus on switching blue states (Pennsylvania is his current best bet)

Grey          = Tied to 3.5%
Light color =  5.0% -6.0%
Medium color = 6.0% - 7.0%
Solid color    = 7.0% and up

Just watched a BBC movie in the cinema called Denial about a British court case around a Holocaust denier. It was pretty good, the planning of the court case and the re-enactment was  pretty well done.

Quote from: Laurakinch on October 24, 2016, 06:04:45 PM
RIP Pete Burns

http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-37757990

I will definitely be wearing my memorable eye patch in remembrance. "You Spin me round" is a great 80s song. 

Seriously Trump has the most obvious poker tells out there. Is there ANY topic that he rants about that he himself isn't involved doing the exact same thing (on most cases worse) than accuses . Also i NEVER want to hear anybody claim "nobody is more _____ than me". Jeeeeze what an annoying thing to add to everything, BELIEEEBE ME

The twitter book report was really entertaining when that was trending. There was some fantastic "To Kill a Mockingbird" Trump reports.

I would personally go with "I don't feel sorry for that mockingbird, I like my mockingbirds who don't get captured" (not sure if anybody said that, if not I claim it!  )

I am hearing a lot about how Brexit was wrong in the pre-vote polls, but from what I remember the polls itself were always really close. Weren't they mostly 51/49 either way?  What was incorrect was the pundits and analysts  who were claiming if the vote were close there were more "silent stay voters" and would have people have cold feet, that would push the total vote to stay. The irony of it all is that what mostly got the Brexit vote incorrect are using the same argument Trump fans.  But one thing for certain the spread currently  Clinton/Trump is much higher than Remain/Leave ever was.

Speaking of spread, this weeks betting lines. Not much movement at all this week, Trump improved a couple of points but Clinton had such a big lead it could be that it become kind of pointless to put any money on Hillary right now because the  return would be so low by just getting 17 cents for every dollar.
-paddy power         Clinton 2/11   (83%)      Trump  9/2  (17%)  [Trump gain 1%]
-William Hill            Clinton -600  (83%)    Trump  +400  (17%)  [Trump gain 1%]
-Sportsbet              Clinton 1.17   (82%)    Trump   5.00   (18%) [Trump gain 1%]
-Bodog                   Clinton -550   (81%)      Trump +350   (19%) [Trump gain 2%] 
-Sportsbook            Clinton 1.18   (83%)     Trump  5.00   (17%)  [Trump gain 2%]

The average now is Clinton 82% - 18% Trump  a 2% difference in Trump direction from last week. RCP betting odds gives Clinton a 84%/16% chance (1% improvement for Trump). 538 has it 87%/13% for Clinton in polls-only chances

As for comparing it to NFL football the closest this week is the most lopsided game on the board the Cleveland/Cincinnati game  Clinton/Bengals on sports bet site are at 1.17/1.16 while Trump/Browns are at 5.00/5.60

Technically speaking Clinton had the most dominate 3-debate totals if you look at scientific polls.



The thing is she's not even great at it, it's just Trump is just so awful at it. Especially in a one-on-one setting. She does seem to know how to push his buttons and have him lose focus, but that's a big issue with him he just rambles on to stuff and jumps all over the place.

This debate photo says it all

Quote from: Morgus on October 20, 2016, 01:07:46 AM
"Zeta Talk on"
"blah, blah, blah"
"Zeta Talk off"

I love that she makes it so unnecessarily complicated 

That woman has giant balls, she disses Stephen Hawking last night, that's something I didn't expect .

This weeks (non tossup) Electoral Map prediction sites average. The big change of the week is that the prediction sites have all shifted Arizona to Blue. The Dem are also have kept hold onto Ohio but it evenly split (3Blue-2Red-3Tie)

538                     Dem 358       Repub 180     
electiongrapyh     Dem 339       Repub 199   
270/Sabato         Dem 358       Repub 181    [Iowa-6 & Utah-6 split] 
electionproje       Dem 351       Repub 187   
270/WashPost     Dem 334       Repub 204       [Ohio-18, Ariz-11 & Nev-6 split] (oct 17)
RCP                    Dem 333       Repub 205   
E-vote                Dem 359        Repub 179      [Ohio-18 split]   
270/Prinston       Dem 343        Repub 195     [Ohio-18 split]     
MY AVERAGE      Dem 352        Repub 186 [This week pickup; DEM: Arizona]

Quote from: JesusJuice on October 19, 2016, 11:19:24 AM
Zeta Talk tonight.

YES !!!

Thank you for bringing it to my attention. It's the cotton candy of coast topics. It might not be good for me, but it's oh tasty.

Tonight Debate would have been better if everybody answered in zeta talk