President Donald J. Trump

[Jackstar]

your self image

[136 or 142]

It has been a long time since I took a probability class, but if I remember correctly, there is a 1% probability if the chance for a strong woman is 10% and a chance for a weak man is 10%.

Yes, very good.  I was looking at the 10% overlap on both sides but was thinking the overall overlap was 10%.  You are right.

10% SW * 10% WM = 1%

Vs
10% SW * 90% SM = 9%
90% WW * 10% WM = 9%
90% WW * 90% WM = 81%

Total 100%  In only 1% of cases would the strong woman and weak man be chosen. 

Since I've lost credibility here, I offer you this:

When comparing two attributes, such as gender or age, you might generate a couple of curves and see how they compare. "Overlapping Bell Curves"
Curves overlap so you can see how different two things are. This graph shows that men are taller than women generally and shows that there is a fair amount of overlap. So we cannot tell what someone's height will be based on gender alone. We could likely say: "Men are taller than women." With the understanding it is a generalization.

https://www.quora.com/What-are-Overlapping-Bell-Curves-and-how-do-they-affect-Quora-questions-and-answers

[Value Of Pi]

One more point about this.  I think most people regard mathematics as a computational exercise.  Except where precise numbers are required, the computation is minor.  If you want to multiple 99 * 103 and instead take the estimate based on 100 * 100, for most things that's more than close enough.

So, this is an example.  You might frequently hear many people say "men are stronger than woman."  In general, sure.

But, if you think of how this phrase would look with bell curves, you would have one bell curve for men and another bell curve for women further to the left, if for example, this test was done by the ability of a representative sample of men and women lifting weights.  However, you would also see that there would be some overlap.  So, you would then note that some women are stronger than some men.  For the sake of argument, let's say that 10% of women are stronger than 10% of men (at least in regards to weight lifting.)

I think there are two important lessons here:
1.There is, of course, a  cognitive bias of stereotyping.  If you look at things as to how they fit on a bell curve, I think this might help to reduce stereotyped and prejudicial thinking a little.  Most if not all cognitive biases seem to be ingrained in humans likely based on how brains (or minds) developed, but maybe some people would question what the basis of their thinking is a little more.

2.There is a logical fallacy known as hasty generalization.  In my example, if you randomly select one man and one woman and tested their strength through weightlifting, there is a 10% chance that the woman would be stronger than the man.  As George Noory says "a 10% chance?  That's huge!"  So, again if people thought about how things fit on a bell curve, it would be obvious that it's impossible to make judgments on most things on the basis of one single example.

Of course, many cognitive biases and logical fallacies aren't subject to mathematical analysis.

Well, I hear what you're saying and there's no question that people who have the ability to correct their own thinking have a big advantage over others, particularly where recognizing reality and adapting to it are concerned. However, with the exception of some small bubbles of intellectual honesty, which are increasingly becoming scarce, we have entered an age where "Don't confuse me with the facts" is becoming the common outlook.

I'm guessing that many of the lessons learned in recent decades under the banner of progress, now being questioned, will have to be relearned through sometimes bitter experience. If don't think that bell curves and pie charts have the power with most people that they used to have, and besides, they don't trust the source -- any source. We're back to the lesson of the hot stove and people will only understand and believe something when they touch the stove themselves.

[136 or 142]

Well, I hear what you're saying and there's no question that people who have the ability to correct their own thinking have a big advantage over others, particularly where recognizing reality and adapting to it are concerned. However, with the exception of some small bubbles of intellectual honesty, which are increasingly becoming scarce, we have entered an age where "Don't confuse me with the facts" is becoming the common outlook.

I'm guessing that many of the lessons learned in recent decades under the banner of progress, now being questioned, will have to be relearned through sometimes bitter experience. If don't think that bell curves and pie charts have the power with most people that they used to have, and besides, they don't trust the source -- any source. We're back to the lesson of the hot stove and people will only understand and believe something when they touch the stove themselves.

Well, I just learnt a lesson that the basic calculations can be more important than I gave them credit for.

Also, you're just looking at political events.

[Jackstar]

[136 or 142]

That looks pretty unhygenic and unsanitary to me.  What if that's how the brain gets calcified?

Rochester, now cut that out!

[Value Of Pi]

Well, I just learnt a lesson that the basic calculations can be more important than I gave them credit for.

Also, you're just looking at political events.

I was generalizing about various kinds of human attitudes and behavior which go far beyond politics. Political events in this country just reflect what's going on in people's heads anyway, meaning how they perceive the world. There are some big changes going on between those ears.

The world, meanwhile, is basically the same place and reality, as always, will assert itself regardless of perception.

[136 or 142]

I was generalizing about various kinds of human attitudes and behavior which go far beyond politics. Political events in this country just reflect what's going on in peoples' heads anyway, meaning how they perceive the world. There are some big changes going on between those ears.

The world, meanwhile, is basically the same place and reality, as always, will assert itself regardless of perception.

I can't agree with that. This is something that is hard to quantify but I don't see any evidence of people acting irrationally outside of politics.  Have car crashes increased?  Have other types of accidents increased?  Have millions of people quit their jobs to 'live for today?'

I haven't looked but this sounds to me like George Noory's 'people are suddenly acting weird' which he's been saying for probably at least five years now.

Sorry, I know being compared to The Nooron is the lowest insult possible.

[WOTR]

I was generalizing about various kinds of human attitudes and behavior which go far beyond politics. Political events in this country just reflect what's going on in people's heads anyway, meaning how they perceive the world. There are some big changes going on between those ears.

The world, meanwhile, is basically the same place and reality, as always, will assert itself regardless of perception.

I have very little to add.  More and more I look around and see people who only want to hear ideas that reinforce what they already believe and will not look at facts or science or reason...

I'm beginning to wonder if it is not due to information overload.  Right now I can log  onto the internet and find something to support almost any position I want to take.  Everybody has the ability to become an expert in almost any field and study it- but that opens up too much for any one person.  There is so much information out there that it is easier to just shut it down and shut it out.

"They sky is blue because of ozone..." 
"Actually, it is blue because molecules scatter more blue light because it has shorter waves..."
"Shut up!  I was taught that it is because of ozone."

[Humilia Lepus Foramen]

I have very little to add.  More and more I look around and see people who only want to hear ideas that reinforce what they already believe and will not look at facts or science or reason...

I'm beginning to wonder if it is not due to information overload.  Right now I can log  onto the internet and find something to support almost any position I want to take.  Everybody has the ability to become an expert in almost any field and study it- but that opens up too much for any one person.  There is so much information out there that it is easier to just shut it down and shut it out.

"They sky is blue because of ozone..." 
"Actually, it is blue because molecules scatter more blue light because it has shorter waves..."
"Shut up!  I was taught that it is because of ozone."

I had something to say about this, but I kept editing my post because at this hour of the night it's hard to string together two coherent thoughts, to say nothing of the wall of text I was working on. 

[MV/Liberace!]

Where are the titties in this fuckin THREAD!!!  This penis isn't going to suck itself.  It's not Jackstar, is what I'm trying to say.

heh heh, love the avatar.

[Value Of Pi]

I can't agree with that. This is something that is hard to quantify but I don't see any evidence of people acting irrationally outside of politics.  Have car crashes increased?  Have other types of accidents increased?  Have millions of people quit their jobs to 'live for today?'

I haven't looked but this sounds to me like George Noory's 'people are suddenly acting weird' which he's been saying for probably at least five years now.

Sorry, I know being compared to The Nooron is the lowest insult possible.

Society hasn't broken down yet but there are big cracks forming, most of which are economic. The housing bubble and resulting financial meltdown were all about irrational thinking and behavior by millions of Americans, many of whom never really recovered, even if they're still walking around and voting.

Student debt is the latest form of economic insanity afflicting otherwise sane people. We've never seen what happens when millions of young people with debt in six figures (beyond those who were in major debt back during the Great Recession) and nothing to fall back on other than their already suffering parents, run into a major recession.. We'll find out.

The economic troubles are feeding the growing polarization in society, as is the falling public confidence in virtually all the traditionally stabilizing institutions and the information overload WOTR mentions. I see a growing sense of desperation and anger with less and less hope. This all set the stage for Trump of course, but it's about a lot more than politics.

[PB the Deplorable]

Jill Stein can't win. What's the point?

It's a Soros op, meant to distract, cause confusion, and boost the morale of his deplorables. 

I hope Trump is keeping track of all this.  The best thing he could do for our country is to take these people on.  I suggest Soros be arrested, detained, and a full RICO investigation for him and his violent hater/protestor groups. 

While he's at it, defund sanctuary cities, defund universities that harbor some of the more despicable leftists through tenure, bring hate crime lawsuits against those polluting our body politic with continual and unsubstantiated charges of 'racism'.  Go on an Obama-style apology tour to apologize for his policies towards our allies.  In other words, start using the tactics, policies, and laws these people created for themselves to use against our country against them.

[whoozit]

Well, I just learnt a lesson that the basic calculations can be more important than I gave them credit for.

Also, you're just looking at political events.

Remember that just because you know how to light the dynamite fuse, you shouldn't use it to remove stumps near your house.  Is this the school you attended?      BTW - kudos to 'fessing up the probability error.  Many here would not do that.

[Lt.Uhura]

Society hasn't broken down yet but there are big cracks forming, most of which are economic. The housing bubble and resulting financial meltdown were all about irrational thinking and behavior by millions of Americans, many of whom never really recovered, even if they're still walking around and voting.

Student debt is the latest form of economic insanity afflicting otherwise sane people. We've never seen what happens when millions of young people with debt in six figures (beyond those who were in major debt back during the Great Recession) and nothing to fall back on other than their already suffering parents, run into a major recession.. We'll find out.

The economic troubles are feeding the growing polarization in society, as is the falling public confidence in virtually all the traditionally stabilizing institutions and the information overload WOTR mentions. I see a growing sense of desperation and anger with less and less hope. This all set the stage for Trump of course, but it's about a lot more than politics.

And Americans are self-medicating more than ever.  Accidental deaths, primarily from opiate ODs are up, now killing more people than car crashes.

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6450a3.htm

See the state by state data, including map and table of states with significant increases.
http://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/data/statedeaths.html

[SciFiAuthor]

It's a Soros op, meant to distract, cause confusion, and boost the morale of his deplorables. 

Yeah, either a Soros op or Stein's running a cash scam or a combination of the two.

I hope Trump is keeping track of all this.  The best thing he could do for our country is to take these people on.  I suggest Soros be arrested, detained, and a full RICO investigation for him and his violent hater/protestor groups. 

I agree. He crossed the line long ago as far as inciting violence. I actually have more respect for Fidel Castro than I do George Soros, which is saying a lot.

While he's at it, defund sanctuary cities, defund universities that harbor some of the more despicable leftists through tenure, bring hate crime lawsuits against those polluting our body politic with continual and unsubstantiated charges of 'racism'.  Go on an Obama-style apology tour to apologize for his policies towards our allies.  In other words, start using the tactics, policies, and laws these people created for themselves to use against our country against them.

Well, defunding sanctuary cities seems to be on the table. Past that, it's hard to tell what Trump's going to do. In some areas it's "so far so good", in others it's "what the hell is he doing?", such as having Romney lurking around.

[GuerrillaUnReal]

I imagine the Civil War is going to be pretty fun.

[MV/Liberace!]

I imagine the Civil War is going to be pretty fun.

Have you not noticed all of your posts with empty placeholders instead of images? 4chan for not allow embedding of their images here.

[3OctaveFart]

Interesting read.

http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/rural-america-understanding-isnt-problem#.WDR-9T5a8N8.facebook

The mascara-becaked pundits are saying the Democrats didn't understand the Midwest and Rust Belt, like the rural right is some perplexing fucking mystery to unravel. We all understand you very plainly, and have for some time. The truth is somewhere closer to this: The rural right in Middle America is too stupid to understand itself and and how it got into its economic crisis.

[Dr. MD MD]

Interesting read.

http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/rural-america-understanding-isnt-problem#.WDR-9T5a8N8.facebook

The mascara-becaked pundits are saying the Democrats didn't understand the Midwest and Rust Belt, like the rural right is some perplexing fucking mystery. We all understand you very plainly, and have for some time. The truth is somewhere closer to this: The rural right in Middle America is too stupid to understand itself and and how it got into its economic crisis.

It's really more this condescending attitude that turned people away from your precious Democrats, snowflake. 

[3OctaveFart]

Meatie has never voted Democrat, turdlet.

[Dr. MD MD]

Meatie has never voted Democrat, turdlet.

Oh, I know! You point this out EVERY TIME someone calls you on your bullshit...and yet you keep hammering away. 

[Yorkshire pud]

Oh, I know! You point this out EVERY TIME someone calls you on your bullshit...and yet you keep hammering away. 

Because by your logic, if you don't like pizza, you must prefer lasagna.  :

[3OctaveFart]

Then counter my bullshit, simpleton, or don't claim that you have been.

Hopefully in a few months you will get your factory job back and be posting less.

[Dr. MD MD]

Because by your logic, if you don't like pizza, you must prefer lasagna.  :

How would you know?! You use no logic at all and are but a simple chode hauler for the queen. 

[Dr. MD MD]

Then counter my bullshit, simpleton, or don't claim that you have been.

Hopefully in a few months you will get your factory job back and be posting less.

OK, Democrat who didn't vote Democrat. 

[Yorkshire pud]

How would you know?! You use no logic at all and are but a simple chode hauler for the queen. 

Have you ever, even momentarilly, stopped and wondered if you actually insult me? And have you ever used that time, however fleeting, to ponder who it is, who joins in with you; and whether or not they are purile and immature like you, (with concomitant purile remarks) or adults?

Its okay; they were rhetorical questions.

[Dr. MD MD]

Have you ever, even momentarilly, stopped and wondered if you actually insult me? And have you ever used that time, however fleeting, to ponder who it is, who joins in with you; and whether or not they are purile and immature like you, (with concomitant purile remarks) or adults?

Its okay; they were rhetorical questions.

I would call them pointless, irrelevant questions...like most of your posts, pud. 

However, it is representative of your sycophantic worldview. 

[Gd5150]

Interesting read.

http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/rural-america-understanding-isnt-problem#.WDR-9T5a8N8.facebook

The mascara-becaked pundits are saying the Democrats didn't understand the Midwest and Rust Belt, like the rural right is some perplexing fucking mystery. We all understand you very plainly, and have for some time. The truth is somewhere closer to this: The rural right in Middle America is too stupid to understand itself and and how it got into its economic crisis.

Wow a picture of a guy in a cowboy hat, the writer must be a credible rural American who has since seen the error of his ways. Half way through the article and all he's said is how stupid middle America is because they're christian and racist. Wow never heard that before. Christian and racist or not, and they're not, that has ZERO to do with economics, those are social beliefs. Unfortunately the coastal elites have never been to rural American and just regurgitate what other coast elites tell them. Ignorance teaching ignorance and handing it a degree doesn't eliminate ignorance, it promotes it. Thats the problem with the higher education industry in the US. And its the problem with the bastardized left wing science of manmade climate change. And its the problem with the MSMedia. And its one of the many problems of this worthless article that takes 5,000 words to get back to a few classic leftwing cliches that explain nothing.

The reason Trump won is simple, Obama is the worst president in history. His only significant policy, Obamacare, will be gone in months. Its the chief cause of the almost 10 year recession the US has been in, 95,000,000 underemployed, 1% growth, after 8 years. A recession shat should've been over 7 years ago. Clinton has been proven to be the most corrupt candidate in history, and a total failure. The middle class want representation. They felt Trump acknowledged their needs more than the cliche left leaders who only care about empowering themselves.

Always funny the so-called educated left telling us how Trump supporters think yet they never have the intelligence to just ask Trump supporters to explain it for themselves. Wonder why?

[Yorkshire pud]

Wow a picture of a guy in a cowboy hat, the writer must be a credible rural American who has since seen the error of his ways. Half way through the article and all he's said is how stupid middle America is because they're christian and racist. Wow never heard that before. Christian and racist or not, and they're not, that has ZERO to do with economics, those are social beliefs. Unfortunately the coastal elites have never been to rural American and just regurgitate what other coast elites tell them. Ignorance teaching ignorance and handing it a degree doesn't eliminate ignorance, it promotes it. Thats the problem with the higher education industry in the US. And its the problem with the bastardized left wing science of manmade climate change. And its the problem with the MSMedia. And its one of the many problems of this worthless article that takes 5,000 words to get back to a few classic leftwing cliches that explain nothing.

The reason Trump won is simple, Obama is the worst president in history. His only significant policy, Obamacare, will be gone in months. Its the chief cause of the almost 10 year recession the US has been in, 95,000,000 underemployed, 1% growth, after 8 years. A recession shat should've been over 7 years ago. Clinton has been proven to be the most corrupt candidate in history, and a total failure. The middle class want representation. They felt Trump acknowledged their needs more than the cliche left leaders who only care about empowering themselves.

Always funny the so-called educated left telling us how Trump supporters think yet they never have the intelligence to just ask Trump supporters to explain it for themselves. Wonder why?

Yes yes, but what will you say and do when it dawns on you that Trump told you what you needed and wanted to hear, but is just as full of crap, as almost any other politician?