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Is MITD doomed?

Started by Robert, January 08, 2016, 11:45:19 PM

Robert

I see a lot of posts to that effect, but haven't seen evidence either for or against.  This is a math problem.

MITD is a business.  It will continue in business at least as long as it makes $, or until key personnel get bored w it.  In determining whether it makes $, one need take into acc't the opp'ty costs of the investors & other people who need to put time & effort into it (including interesting people to be interviewed) -- that is, whether they'd be better off doing something else with their $, time, or effort.  Other than the opp'ty cost, does anyone have any figures as to how much the show costs to put on, & how much it's likely to take in?  Unless someone has some actual $ figures, we're shooting completely in the dark as to the future of MITD.

MITD doesn't have to open its books to us, but here's a nonprofit in the same business that does: Auricle Communications, who operate WFMU.  They share many, though not all, of the types of expenses that MITD does.  See p. 9 for a breakdown of expenses.  WFMU's audience is now about 2/3 via stream.  They own a bldg. & xmtrs, which MITD does not have the expenses of.  Also MITD can take paid advertising.  Notice how large the figure is for WFMU's depreciation & amortization, which are on paper and for MITD would represent sunk costs that may never be realized & hence can be neglected in this calcul'n if we needn't consider whether the program's going to survive, say, a decade or more.  WFMU keeps on their books expenses for the Free Music Archive, which MITD has no equivalent of -- but whose music they could use for free for bumpers.  And even though WFMU's staff is mostly volunteers, I bet MITD's paid staff is smaller, so look for the salaries and benefits total to be less.

Interestingly, WFMU lists as its expense for "internet and online transmissions" a figure of less than $70k/yr., even though WFMU puts out at least 4 separate streams of 24-hr. programming.

Now for key personnel.  Let's assume Art Bell is dead, his head severed, chest staked to the ground.  (Nothing personal, Mr. Bell, jus' sayin'.)  So anyone who's keeping a foot in the door subscribing or advertising in the hope he'll be back, let's forget about them.  In that respect then MITD would be similar to C2C, because they're not getting Art back either.  I know too little about Ms. Wade to judge whether she'd be interested in a long term job doing what she's doing.  But supposing she is, can she attract enough interest to keep the revenue up & significant guests interested in the exposure, considering how late at night they have to stay up?  Then taking that as a baseline, any hope of getting Art back would be gravy.

Don't tell me the show has no future w/o Art, because C2C has staggered on all this time w Noory at the mic most of the time.  You may never listen again, but here we're trying to forecast whether enough other people would.

Can anyone here supply figures to plug in to the spreadsheet & prove it's a go or a no-go?

AppealPlay

I haven't listened to a single MITD since Art left.  MITD is Art Bell and without him I'm completely uninterested.

Robert

Quote from: MichaelFromVA on January 08, 2016, 11:54:39 PMI haven't listened to a single MITD since Art left.  MITD is Art Bell and without him I'm completely uninterested.
You didn't read the entire question, did you?  Whether you are interested is irrelevant.

Ciardelo

Quote from: Robert on January 08, 2016, 11:56:22 PM
You didn't read the entire question, did you?  Whether you are interested is irrelevant.
It's DOOMED.

Echo

No one here can supply you with any figures. In the long run MiTD is doomed.  Very few advertisers are will to renew contracts, terrestrial radio stations are dropping the show once they find a replacement.

George Noory hosted C2CAM for years before Art quit/came back/ retired/ came back/ quit again. C2CAM still has how may affiliates. Do we see them running Art bell reruns over airing a new no name host. On top of that MiTD still wants to charge to access past shows. They would have a better shot at attracting listeners by allowing people to access archives for free.  Way too many other radio shows or podcasts out there that allow you to listen to past shows for FREE.


Well Keith recently made it impossible to see how many listeners the network has when it was exposed Heather only had an average of 1200 listeners a night.

AppealPlay

Quote from: The King of Kings on January 09, 2016, 02:17:08 AM
Well Keith recently made it impossible to see how many listeners the network has when it was exposed Heather only had an average of 1200 listeners a night.

I'm shocked it's that high.  I figured everyone but a couple bored people jumped ship when Art had his latest "retirement."

boxman

Quote from: MichaelFromVA on January 09, 2016, 03:12:45 AM
I'm shocked it's that high.  I figured everyone but a couple bored people jumped ship when Art had his latest "retirement."
Another interesting thing is that not only did it keep those numbers when hoagland took over, but it even increased a bit.
So it seems like at least on the DMDN stream hoagland's show is at least as popular/unpopular.

Jackstar

Quote from: Robert on January 08, 2016, 11:45:19 PM
I see a lot of posts to that effect, but haven't seen evidence either for or against.  This is a math problem.

MITD is a business.  It will continue in business at least as long as it makes $, or until key personnel get bored w it.

I disagree with your main supposition, which is that Bell doesn't have a codicil in his will to ensure that the show keeps on running until George Noory is dead and buried.

It's pointless to do the math without knowing the confidential proprietary information.  And it's cheap to run a podcast--rather more for music and live callers. Sure, it cost money to set that up--but those are sunk costs. It might actually be cheaper in the long run to carry it at a loss, like WKRP in Cincinnati.


NO   keith and art have always made money  -they made over a million dollars when art retired the first time  on  6 cd roms  of internet content ( alien photos from their website )  (between 50 & 90 dollars a set depending how many cds you got )  (also they were numbered )   

you had to wait a couple of weeks for them -they only how to make the exact amount they needed  for that offer  - a pretty close FULL on profit --

that was 10 years ago

if i made that kind of money with someone i would hang until they figured out what they were doing   at least a couple of months   

Robert

Quote from: Jackstar on January 09, 2016, 04:11:08 AMIt's pointless to do the math without knowing the confidential proprietary information.
How much more do we need to get a pretty good idea?  Any reason to think WFMU's expenses aren't a pretty good source?  Anybody got a recent rate card for MITD ads?  Avon man?
QuoteAnd it's cheap to run a podcast--rather more for music and live callers. Sure, it cost money to set that up--but those are sunk costs. It might actually be cheaper in the long run to carry it at a loss, like WKRP in Cincinnati.
By "carry it at a loss", do you mean an actual operating loss going forward?  I don't see how that'd be cheaper, maybe you could explain.  Or by "carry it" do you mean a loss if you amortize the sunk costs?

GravitySucks

Quote from: MichaelFromVA on January 09, 2016, 03:12:45 AM
I'm shocked it's that high.  I figured everyone but a couple bored people jumped ship when Art had his latest "retirement."

I am sure that is only the number of people using the links. TuneIn listeners probably get a different stream. And that is only the people listening live. It doesn't count Time Travelers that download later.

Are there less listeners now? Yes. Is the show still profitable? Yes, unless you have FACTS to dispute Keith's claims, it is.

If you're not a supporter, then why the Fuck do you care?  Seriously. Go find something you like and enjoy life.

Jackstar

Quote from: GravitySucks on January 09, 2016, 11:48:35 AM
why the Fuck do you care?  Seriously. Go find something you like and enjoy life.

Why do you care about his caring?

pate

I consyolk the scroll...

{soft yolk}Over, Easy{/soft yolk)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k64nYlN3LrA

Nefrmynd, Not Sure...

edit & Sedit: Subject lie(lyne::"?<) John Frum to ReMItTeD

Dr. MD MD

Quote from: Jackstar on January 10, 2016, 04:13:56 AM
Why do you care about his caring?

Why do you care about his caring about whether the other guy cares?

Hmmm...I wonder when this will reach critical mass?  ???

Faustina

Quote from: Echo on January 09, 2016, 02:12:43 AM
They would have a better shot at attracting listeners by allowing people to access archives for free.  Way too many other radio shows or podcasts out there that allow you to listen to past shows for FREE.

Yes, such as Ground Zero and Darkness Radio, and they still seem to stay afloat.

Faustina

As long as Keith doesn't mind working for peanuts, MITD could run for as long as he and Heather (and Art?) want it to.  I'm assuming Heather's salary is probably not all that large, either, but I'm just guessing.  However, the terrestrial radio station affiliates are falling off, not wanting to just run Art Bell replays forevermore, nor take a chance that a new, no-name host will keep listeners.  Reportedly, Heather will report back next week on just how many will still be airing the show.  I'm going to double-check what she tells us, just coz I'm curious.

WOTR

Quote from: Robert on January 09, 2016, 11:06:01 AM
By "carry it at a loss", do you mean an actual operating loss going forward?  I don't see how that'd be cheaper, maybe you could explain.  Or by "carry it" do you mean a loss if you amortize the sunk costs?
Good thing I am old (and have downloaded all of the WKRP episodes...)  I assume that the reference is to the fact that WKRP was never supposed to be profitable.  Mother Carlson ran it for years knowing that it would loose money and was going to change formats when it threatened to become profitable to ensure that it would continue it's loosing streak.

The idea is that some people with money and / or other businesses sometimes require tax write-offs.  (In the case of WKRP, the operating loss was not a big deal as the station itself was still an asset that could be sold and may- thanks to the licence- increase in value.  Modern economics would mean that you would probably also borrow against the asset and use that money to invest in profitable ventures.)  With no real assets of any value at this network, I would think that the comparison may be flawed.

Jackstar

Quote from: WOTR on January 17, 2016, 02:24:02 AM
With no real assets of any value at this network, I would think that the comparison may be flawed.

Well, I originally said "might actually."

Thanks for this one, but if you're going to go around explaining what all my posts really meant, I'm going to lose all my street cred.

I do not think MITD or DMDN is going away. Heather is adequate and the infrastructure, such as it is, is already in place.

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