Settled Science

[RealCool Daddio]

Scientists are as certain about man made climate change as they are about cigarettes causing cancer, or the age of the universe:

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/what-95-certainty-warming-means-scientists

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-risks-as-conclusive-as-link-between-smoking-and-lung-cancer/

[The General]

And eggs are bad for you.  Oh, wait, this just in... eggs are good for you.  And also as sure as they are about gluten.  And Prozac.  And cholesterol. And ADHD.  And ADD.  And second-hand smoke.  And third hand smoke.  And left hand smoke.  And smoke and mirrors.  Please file your taxes by no later than April 15th, thank you.

[onan]

And eggs are bad for you.  Oh, wait, this just in... eggs are good for you.  And also as sure as they are about gluten.  And Prozac.  And cholesterol. And ADHD.  And ADD.  And second-hand smoke.  And third hand smoke.  And left hand smoke.  And smoke and mirrors.  Please file your taxes by no later than April 15th, thank you.

Sometimes eggs are bad for you. Inhaling smoke is also bad for you. The trouble with all of your examples is the issues are complicated. Many of them take  a great deal of experience and knowledge to understand. Newspaper and magazine articles that give 4 paragraphs of copy space are not going to get the info right, no matter how many times it gets copied and pasted to yet another internet blog.

[Juan]

Exactly. Plus many if not most reporters never had a science class in college.

[The General]

Sometimes eggs are bad for you. Inhaling smoke is also bad for you. The trouble with all of your examples is the issues are complicated. Many of them take  a great deal of experience and knowledge to understand. Newspaper and magazine articles that give 4 paragraphs of copy space are not going to get the info right, no matter how many times it gets copied and pasted to yet another internet blog.

My point really is this: science is never settled.  That's why it's science. It's an ever evolving set of conclusions based on ever evolving sets of data based on our ever evolving methods of collecting and interpreting that data.  Is there global warming?  Maybe.  Are carbon emissions to blame?  Possibly.  Will it be universally accepted as 'settled science' before it happens?  Never. 

According to Al Gore, the ice caps should be gone by now.  He's been spouting this 'settled science' since the 90's.  The fact is that the polar ice caps have been growing lately, especially the southern ice cap which has been steadily growing for decades.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png

[GeorgieForPresident2216]

I don't like to go head to head with you guys.  I don't like to stir up controversy or lose friends, but this is an important issue -- perhaps the most important we face.

Of course there is settled science.  Newtonian physics and thermodynamics are settled.  The theories were incomplete but still settled.  My entire education was based on them.  If they didn't work, your car wouldn't start and run reliably, the Sun wouldn't work, your body would fail, and we wouldn't be able to send space probes to Mars.  Einsteins Theories of Relativity are settled.  Again, incomplete but settled.  They have been demonstrated within our ability to measure millions of times -- every time someone gets directions on a cell phone as a matter of fact.  It's settled that ordinary matter is made of a defined set of atoms, which themselves are composed of protons, neutrons, electrons, and photons and gluons to hold them together.  That's settled.  The fact that you inherited your traits from your parents through DNA and its interaction with RNA is settled.  The details of evolution may not be settled, but that it happened is, regardless of your belief system.  And I don't know why you would use cigarette smoke as an example because it is settled that it causes cancer and a host of other health issues.  If you want to know the health risks of eggs look at the actual scientific papers.  Scientists only report what they observe.  It is reporters that broaden and generalize the findings in often misleading ways.

Now the next thing is to eliminate Al Gore from your argument.  He is a politician, not a scientist.  He has nothing to do with the validity of climate change and I don't know why everyone tries to use him to make arguments for or against.  Global warming was a big concern for scientists and engineers before he came along.  I was structuring my career even then so I could make a difference in this problem.  We were frustrated for many years that the government wasn't even addressing it because we knew that soon no action would be able to mitigate the problem in a significant way.  Then a prominent figure in government finally tries to bring awareness to the subject and he is crucified.  How ironic!  People are claiming climate change is a government tax-grab when the government itself refused to act on it for many many years. 

And, I should tell you America isn't famous for its scientific literacy.  This is a global problem.  There are plenty of advanced nations out there doing good science -- as good or better than in America -- who don't give a rat's ass about Al Gore or Democratic tax grabs.   In terms of understanding this issue and moving on, America is the chain pulling everyone else down.  Other nations want to take action.  But America is no longer led by facts, ethical responsibility, or researched data.  It is led by politics, opinion, and unleashed capitalism.  Just look at the news agencies.  Journalism is dead.  They don't care about news.  They care about market share.  Look at what smart people are studying in University.  If they wanted to help build a better America they'd be going into science, engineering, trades, and things like that.  Instead they are becoming lawyers or going to Wall Street.  Law is important but not when it is abused to transfer wealth to the wealthy rather than generating it.  The stock market is a great instrument but not when it is manipulated to transfer wealth from the middle class to the rich.  House flipping was popular in the 80's and 90's to transfer wealth from the middle class to the rich.  An absolutely abhorrent practice which I believe led to the 2008 collapse.  These things do not build America.  They destroy it.  America has lost its moral center so the problem of global warming has become a political one rather than a scientific one.

And finally I would like to say that your graph is misleading.  The sea ice around the Antarctic is growing but the land ice is shrinking.  There is a net loss of ice.  This is not a result of cooling.  The ocean temperatures in the very spots of accumulating sea ice are rising.  These are due to not completely understood complex secondary and tertiary effects from the melting land ice.  You cannot take isolated data and successfully use it to counter many thousands of diverse papers that conclude anthropologic global warming is occuring, especially when only one or two a year are published that don't support this argument.

[GeorgieForPresident2216]

Sorry, that wasn't directed at anyone in particular and I wasn't trying to pick on you, General.  I'm just trying to address common arguments on this subject as best I can.  In fact I was going to take this whole rant down.. not because I feel it's wrong but because I don't want to get into an emotional sparring match.  But it's too late to modify or remove.

[The General]

Sorry, that wasn't directed at anyone in particular and I wasn't trying to pick on you, General.  I'm just trying to address common arguments on this subject as best I can.  In fact I'm going to take this whole rant down.. not because I feel it's wrong but because I don't want to get into an emotional sparring match.

It's nearly impossible to offend me.  Don't worry. 
LEAVE IT UP, it ain't emotional, brother. 
We're just talking about the weather. 
I enjoyed your point of view. 
I'll gladly concede that global warming is settled when LA is underwater.
And frankly, I think LA would look great under water.  What an improvement.

[GeorgieForPresident2216]

It's nearly impossible to offend me.  Don't worry. 
LEAVE IT UP, it ain't emotional, brother. 
We're just talking about the weather. 
I enjoyed your point of view. 
I'll gladly concede that global warming is settled when LA is underwater.
And frankly, I think LA would look great under water.  What an improvement.

Hehe.  You've got a good attitude General.  Thanks.

[Yorkshire pud]

It's nearly impossible to offend me.  Don't worry. 
LEAVE IT UP, it ain't emotional, brother. 
We're just talking about the weather. 
I enjoyed your point of view. 
I'll gladly concede that global warming is settled when LA is underwater.
And frankly, I think LA would look great under water.  What an improvement.

It'll be too late then; but never mind, at least our kids can ask why politics was put into science, and why scientists were vilified as being 'liberal tax raising commies'.

[The General]

It'll be too late then; but never mind, at least our kids can ask why politics was put into science, and why scientists were vilified as being 'liberal tax raising commies'.

So stop exhaling all that Co2 then.

[The General]

I'm just waiting to see what the next big failed scientific prophecy will be.  Every few years there's a new one.  Remember acid rain, the population bomb, the "Silent Spring," the coming ice age, heterosexual AIDS epidemic,  bird flu, and now global warming...?  sigh. 

[Yorkshire pud]

I'm just waiting to see what the next big failed scientific prophecy will be.  Every few years there's a new one.  Remember acid rain, the population bomb, the Silent Spring," the coming ice age, heterosexual AIDS epidemic,  bird flu, and now global warming...?  sigh.

You didn't read the first post then? It isn't failed.

[The General]

You didn't read the first post then? It isn't failed.

And when it turns out to be a lot of over inflated hyped up nonsense, they'll roll out the next big worry.

[Yorkshire pud]

And when it turns out to be a lot of over inflated hyped up nonsense, they'll roll out the next big worry.

But why worry? You believe science is crap anyway. It won't bother you one way or the other.

[Gd5150]

It'll be too late then; but never mind, at least our kids can ask why politics was put into science, and why scientists were vilified as being 'liberal tax raising commies'.

Thats because that who's always behind the man made end of the world scams. The solutions are always the same. More regulations, bigger government, more taxes. And then we get the Earth Day rallies in which all the "international communist workers party for fair pay and ending racism and sexism and pollution and cancer party" people show up with their machine made signs by the 100's. Guess its magic they all have the same sign and get paid the same amount to be there.

Great page on these groups, and the numerous headlines pushing the man made end of the world causes. Only here...it was global cooling, oops. It lists links to all of the original articles by all of our favorite impartial unbiased big media sources.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/01/global-cooling-compilation/

[The General]

the "international communist workers party for fair pay and ending racism and sexism and pollution and cancer party"

Hey don't forget the children! It's all for the chiiiiiiiiiiiiildren.  WHY DO YOU HATE THE CHILDREN?

[Yorkshire pud]

Thats because that who's always behind the man made end of the world scams.

...our kids can ask why politics was put into science, and why scientists were vilified as being 'liberal tax raising commies'.

Scientists don't decide policy. They present the science. Some of it incomplete, some of it ongoing for a long time yet..But if you don't want to accept what they say and instead play at 'lalalalallalalaaa can't hear you'...nothing really to add is it?

[onan]

If you think exhaled CO2 isn't a problem, take a plastic bag and hold it to your mouth. Only breath your exhalations. Try 10 breaths. Really, do it. It is a fascinating physiology lesson. I know that some will think I am being pithy. I'm not, the body's reaction is remarkable.

[GeorgieForPresident2216]

I'm just waiting to see what the next big failed scientific prophecy will be.  Every few years there's a new one.  Remember acid rain, the population bomb, the "Silent Spring," the coming ice age, heterosexual AIDS epidemic,  bird flu, and now global warming...?  sigh.

Admittedly, one does become desensitized to these things by middle-age.  I guess for me, global warming has been a perpetual concern which trumps those other things and it is not something I can dismiss if based only on looking at the inputs into the system.

[The General]

Admittedly, one does become desensitized to these things by middle-age.  I guess for me, global warming has been a perpetual concern which trumps those other things and it is not something I can dismiss if based only on looking at the inputs into the system.

Does it bother you that so many scientists have been caught manipulating data about global warming? 
Why would they do that if there's nothing in it for them?

[onan]

Does it bother you that so many scientists have been caught manipulating data about global warming? 
Why would they do that if there's nothing in it for them?

refuted.

cleared of any manipulation:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/jul/08/muir-russell-climategate-climate-science

[GeorgieForPresident2216]

I have not looked into this too much so am not especially aware of such cases.  The only one I'm somewhat familiar with is the 'hide the decline' case referenced in Onan's arcticle which turned out to be not fraudulent at all, but just a misinterpretation of emails, terminology, and methods on the part of those who were attacking the study.  In fact the scientist (Richard Muller) who was leading the charge against the original researchers went on to do his own research and now supports the conclusion of global warming.

[The General]

refuted.

reported

[onan]

reported

damnit, just as I was getting off probation.

[b_dubb]

I feel like this belongs here. Don't ask me why.

http://disinfo.com/product/stupidity/

[pate]

So the science is settled that Something causes global warming, and Something causes cancer?

I guess I can accept that.