Kerry lays down the law

[NowhereInTime]

Putin's world view was formed as a apparachik in the USSR.  As a native Russian, he sees the old Soviet Union as his perpetually beleaguered motherland's historic buffer to invasion and domination.  Ever since the break-up, the old guard in Moscow has been paranoid about the old Soviet "republics" turning on their nasty old master; especially those with Western leanings.  Ukraine's westward turn would; to the old Soviet types, be like Canada throwing in with Russia to Americans.

I think Putin used the Olympics for cover; the "Iron Ring" around Sochi covered concentration of troops in the S. Caucasus.  The  Crimea is effectively gone, and Putin's tactical moves were, it seems to me, extraordinarily well planned and rehearsed considering typical Russian "delicacy"; e.g. sending tanks into Georgia in 08.  If Putin goes into E. Ukraine, we're back to 1985; Cold War Revisited. We'll have to worry about Putin going after the Baltic States, and unlike Ukraine, they're now in NATO.  If that happens, its 1914 again...with tactical nukes.  The fucking Euros are waffling badly...surprise, surprise. At least, Merckel is opening her eyes. The Brit reaction from that Tory asshole Cameron not to do anything that hurts UK business is despicable.

Agreed.  Great analysis, especially Cameron's deafening silence.

[SciFiAuthor]

Putin has forever been a megalomaniac.  He's bored and frustrated that he didn't get the accolades from the world he was expecting for Sochi.  He should be grateful more athletes weren't seriously hurt in the crap venues and conditions there.
This march into the Sudetenland won't be ignored.  You may mock financial & trade sanctions but sure as shit guaranteed Putin won't.  He has a teetering economy and as the northern hemisphere warms up for spring his gas sales will plummet. If the Germans are serious about follow through then Putin will either have to march away or face an increasingly dissatisfied Russian public.

I don't know that I would say bored, but more that he's in tune with Russia. If you look at his creation of his image, it's always as this bear wrestling muscular tough guy with tinges of KGB and power throughout. This must resonate with the Russian people, as they do like him and his approval rating does seem to be rising over this Ukraine thing. Rather, I think there is some concept of a greater Russia going on here, similar to Hitler's Greater Germany that's firing a wave of nationalism.

Sanctions rarely work. They have a terrible history as far as effectiveness. In the case of places like Iran, all they seem to do is harden public support for the leadership, or in the case of North Korea it just starves a bunch of people while the dear leader laughs. But it's unlikely we will levy them.

Merkel can no more convince a Europe who's balls are Putin's hands to do damage to him than she can fart Beethoven's 9th. The only meaningful sanctions would be against oil and natural gas. Raising the price of either due a drop in supply creates political problems at home for the leader that wishes to impose those sanctions.

Besides, he's already flaunting them anyway. He's been tossing out US business executives left and right knowing that the first thing they'll do when they get home is put pressure on Obama to make things ok again.

Putin's figured out the methodology for expansionism in the 21st century. Countering it requires more than John Kerry drawing lines in the sand, after having drew other lines in the sand with Syria without ever doing anything meaningful after they passed. We need to be thinking about undermining Russia's power through the oil and natural gas markets. We have plenty of newfound oil through fracking, and so much natural gas that we're burning it off in the fields. Threaten to build a pipeline to Europe, and if that doesn't get him to back off, build it in record time.

Of course this administration doesn't care much for fossil fuels and new pipelines, so we'll just look like idiots again this week. He'll move into central Ukraine and Kerry will toss out another ultimatum.

[SciFiAuthor]

Update: Alright, Kerry's line has passed impotently and we now have "sanctions" so weak that they can't even be referred to as token. The sanctioned individuals laughed it off. Obama's setting things up for a new line in the sand.

Putin continues to mass troops for an invasion of eastern Ukraine itself.

[wr250]

[albrecht]

Crimea was, nationally and ethnically, basically Russia (with a good population of Tatar), it was a part of Russia until Kruschev gave it away to the Ukraine (while drunk and when the Ukraine was still under Russian dominance.) Most Crimeans, aside from the Muslim Tatars) are, at least nominally, Russian Orthodox while the rest of Ukraine is much, at least nominally, Catholic. Most people in the Crimea speak Russian. And Russia has huge bases there. Why do we want to pick a fight over Crimea wanting to join Russia? Even if the vote was corrupt the majority of people there want to join Crimea. So much for democracy! We accept "votes" and give places like Kosovo to Muslims, very radical ones. Heck Clinton even bombed the Chinese embassy to support them. But not when the situation is MUCH more clear that the local population wished to join Russia we are sending gunboats. Can't Obama just breakout his bowing and apologizing foreign policy again? This time it might be the correct one.

[Unquenchable Angst]

I thought that was Santayana.
And I ain't talking about Carlos.

You are right General.
Santayana is known for famous sayings, such as "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it",[2] and "[O]nly the dead have seen the end of war." (a quote often wrongly attributed to Plato).

and you too Lion.
Those who don't know history are destined to repeat it.
Edmund Burke

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[Unquenchable Angst]

The people never give up their liberties but under some delusion.
Edmund Burke

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http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/e/edmundburk118083.html
Among a people generally corrupt liberty cannot long exist.
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Nothing is more unreliable than the populace, nothing more obscure than human intentions, nothing more deceptive than the whole electoral system.
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In a republic this rule ought to be observed: that the majority should not have the predominant power.
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Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.
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The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
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A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
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Some people regard private enterprise as a predatory tiger to be shot. Others look on it as a cow they can milk. Not enough people see it as a healthy horse, pulling a sturdy wagon.
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The dread of criticism is the death of genius.
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The only true source of politeness is consideration.

William Gilmore Simms

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