2016 General Election - Opinions, thoughts, polls, EC, odds

[Jackstar]

The Republicans have brought it onto themselves with the Hispanic voting problem. GWB split the Hispanic vote 40/58 vs Kerry in 2004. It's the last two elections that  McCain got 31% and Romney 27%.

The betting markets certainly reacted to this weekends news but it seems to have stabilized today with little money even going back to Clinton after a run ton Trump on Friday and Saturday.
-paddy power         Clinton 2/7   (75%)      Trump  9/2  (25%)  [Trump gain 8%]
-William Hill            Clinton -300  (72%)    Trump  +225  (28%)  [Trump gain 11%]
-Sportsbet              Clinton 1.30   (74%)    Trump   3.50   (26%) [Trump gain 8%]
-Bodog                   Clinton -350   (73%)      Trump +220   (27%) [Trump gain 8%] 
-Sportsbook            Clinton 1.28   (76%)     Trump  3.80   (24%)  [Trump gain 7%]

The average now is Clinton 74% - 26% Trump  a 8% difference in Trump direction from last week. Even though a big improvement from last week for Trump it still doesn't match his high on mid-September where Trump had 38% of the betting market.  RCP betting odds gives Clinton a 81%/19% chance (3% improvement for Trump). 538 has it 78%/22% for Clinton in Now Cast and polls only (9% improvement for Trump).... As for the NFL odds. Trumps odds of winning is still lower than the most lopsided game on the NFL schedule which is favorite New England at underdog Buffalo. Last week Clinton/Bengals defeated Trump/Browns giving Hillary a 5-3 record for the season

Senate

I can't find too many betting odds for the senate, I only found two
-PaddyPower:  Dems 3/10 (77%)  Repubs 21/10 (33%)
-Sportsbet:      Dems 1.30 (77%)  Repubs  3.10 (33%)
I would personally like more than just two to get a more wide range reading.

Non tossup electoral map

Trump reclaimed Arizona (barely 5-3 on prediction sites) and Ohio  (5 red, 1 blue, 2 ties) Florida has become more debatable this week as well with it going from unanimous blue to 6-2 blue this week.

538                     Dem 323       Repub 215     
electiongraph     Dem 300       Repub 238   
270/Sabato         Dem 358       Repub 180    [Iowa-6 & Utah-6 split] 
electionproje       Dem 333       Repub 205   
270/Rothbrg      Dem 334       Repub 204       [Ohio-18 & Iowa-6 split]
RCP                    Dem 304       Repub 234   
E-vote                Dem 335        Repub 203      [Ohio-18 & Iowa-6  split]   
270/Prinston       Dem 326        Repub 212     [Iowa-6 split]     
MY AVERAGE      Dem 323        Repub 215 [This week pickup; REPUB: Arizona & Ohio]

[Dr. MD MD]

The Republicans have brought it onto themselves with the Hispanic voting problem. GWB split the Hispanic vote 40/58 vs Kerry in 2004. It's the last two elections that  McCain got 31% and Romney 27%.

The betting markets certainly reacted to this weekends news but it seems to have stabilized today with little money even going back to Clinton after a run ton Trump on Friday and Saturday.
-paddy power         Clinton 2/7   (75%)      Trump  9/2  (25%)  [Trump gain 8%]
-William Hill            Clinton -300  (72%)    Trump  +225  (28%)  [Trump gain 11%]
-Sportsbet              Clinton 1.30   (74%)    Trump   3.50   (26%) [Trump gain 8%]
-Bodog                   Clinton -350   (73%)      Trump +220   (27%) [Trump gain 8%] 
-Sportsbook            Clinton 1.28   (76%)     Trump  3.80   (24%)  [Trump gain 7%]

The average now is Clinton 74% - 26% Trump  a 8% difference in Trump direction from last week. Even though a big improvement from last week for Trump it still doesn't match his high on mid-September where Trump had 38% of the betting market.  RCP betting odds gives Clinton a 81%/19% chance (3% improvement for Trump). 538 has it 78%/22% for Clinton in Now Cast and polls only (9% improvement for Trump).... As for the NFL odds. Trumps odds of winning is still lower than the most lopsided game on the NFL schedule which is favorite New England at underdog Buffalo. Last week Clinton/Bengals defeated Trump/Browns giving Hillary a 5-3 record for the season

Senate

I can't find too many betting odds for the senate, I only found two
-PaddyPower:  Dems 3/10 (77%)  Repubs 21/10 (33%)
-Sportsbet:      Dems 1.30 (77%)  Repubs  3.10 (33%)
I would personally like more than just two to get a more wide range reading.

Non tossup electoral map

Trump reclaimed Arizona (barely 5-3 on prediction sites) and Ohio  (5 red, 1 blue, 2 ties) Florida has become more debatable this week as well with it going from unanimous blue to 6-2 blue this week.

538                     Dem 323       Repub 215     
electiongraph     Dem 300       Repub 238   
270/Sabato         Dem 358       Repub 180    [Iowa-6 & Utah-6 split] 
electionproje       Dem 333       Repub 205   
270/Rothbrg      Dem 334       Repub 204       [Ohio-18 & Iowa-6 split]
RCP                    Dem 304       Repub 234   
E-vote                Dem 335        Repub 203      [Ohio-18 & Iowa-6  split]   
270/Prinston       Dem 326        Repub 212     [Iowa-6 split]     
MY AVERAGE      Dem 323        Repub 215 [This week pickup; REPUB: Arizona & Ohio]

What do you think it would be if the Democrats weren't oversampled in these polls? 

[Jackstar]

What do you think it would be if the Democrats weren't oversampled in these polls? 

It would have been a barnbuster if it had been Sanders vs. Trump. Alas, the Fix is In.

[GravitySucks]

What do you think it would be if the Democrats weren't oversampled in these polls? 

Trump will win by double digits in Texas. If not, then fraud is bigger than I could have believed.

[Jackstar]

fraud is bigger than I could have believed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNRgP4FVDzA


Greetings, Starfighter. 'Sup?

[21st Century Man]

Hillary is sinking fast.  I would say the odds are 50-50 now and that may be optimistic regarding Hillary. Her RCP average has dropped substantially down to +2.5 and I would say that in reality it is lower than that.

[onan]

Hillary is sinking fast.  I would say the odds are 50-50 now and that may be optimistic regarding Hillary. Her RCP average has dropped substantially down to +2.5 and I would say that in reality it is lower than that.

If Trump had been smart (which he isn't) he would have invested in placing staff in swing states (which he didn't). If he had done so, perhaps more would be informed. But, from what I see, there hasn't been much movement in the polls. Trump is gaining and the race is tightening. Will it be enough? I dunno.

Until the Donna Brazile (sp) information, I was leaning for Hillary, ahh hell, I still am.

[Jackstar]

transparent shill

[21st Century Man]

If Trump had been smart (which he isn't) he would have invested in placing staff in swing states (which he didn't). If he had done so, perhaps more would be informed. But, from what I see, there hasn't been much movement in the polls. Trump is gaining and the race is tightening. Will it be enough? I dunno.

Until the Donna Brazile (sp) information, I was leaning for Hillary, ahh hell, I still am.

I'll take that as a bellwether.   If you have been wavering a bit, that means the floodgates are open.  I know you aren't a fan of Hillary just as I'm not a fan of Trump but it will take a lot for either of us to waver  in our support however minuscule it in fact is. We'll see if the dynamics change back over the next week.

[GravitySucks]

If Trump had been smart (which he isn't) he would have invested in placing staff in swing states (which he didn't). If he had done so, perhaps more would be informed. But, from what I see, there hasn't been much movement in the polls. Trump is gaining and the race is tightening. Will it be enough? I dunno.

Until the Donna Brazile (sp) information, I was leaning for Hillary, ahh hell, I still am.

If you are against Trump, it is understandable to want to overlook all things Clinton
If you are against Clinton, it is understandable to want to overlook all things Trump Scion

Ron Paul would have won this election and propelled the Libertarian party into a viable third party if he was 10 years younger, but I would have had to overlook things about him as well.

[Jackstar]

I would have had to overlook things about him as well.

[Dr. MD MD]

If Trump had been smart (which he isn't) he would have invested in placing staff in swing states (which he didn't). If he had done so, perhaps more would be informed. But, from what I see, there hasn't been much movement in the polls. Trump is gaining and the race is tightening. Will it be enough? I dunno.

Until the Donna Brazile (sp) information, I was leaning for Hillary, ahh hell, I still am.

What does she have to do to turn you away? Eat a baby on TV? For some reason I think your reaction would be the same. 

[GravitySucks]

https://twitter.com/gregabbott_tx/status/793210898173132800

[=Schlyder=]

http://blackboxvoting.org/

[GravitySucks]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-02/91-percent-of-last-minute-bets-are-for-trump-paddy-power-says

[HedgehogNorman]

Possible terrorist attacks on Monday in Texas, Virginia, and New York.

[HedgehogNorman]

If you are against Trump, it is understandable to want to overlook all things Clinton
If you are against Clinton, it is understandable to want to overlook all things Trump Scion

Ron Paul would have won this election and propelled the Libertarian party into a viable third party if he was 10 years younger, but I would have had to overlook things about him as well.

I'm personally leaning towards the Giant Douche.

He's repugnant, but he's personally morally bankrupt. She's professionally morally bankrupt.

[21st Century Man]

I'm personally leaning towards the Giant Douche.

He's repugnant, but he's personally morally bankrupt. She's professionally morally bankrupt.

^THIS^

[Jackstar]

What does she have to do to turn you away? Eat a baby on TV?

Coming right up--film at eleven.

[Chupacabra]

Hillary will win it in a semi landslide (will get to 300) , she will take FLA and PA

[Dr. MD MD]

Hillary will win it in a semi landslide (will get to 300) , she will take FLA and PA

How many dicks did you say you can fit in your mouth at once? 300?! I don't believe you, you transparent shill. 

[Jackstar]

What does she have to do to turn you away? Eat a baby on TV?

[Dr. MD MD]

LOL! 

[albrecht]

I hope that is just Karo syrup and FD&C Red 40 but with those freaks, you never know.

[Jackstar]

just Karo syrup and FD&C Red 40

It's frankly a more disturbing concept that such things would be merely faked.

[Dr. MD MD]

I hope that is just Karo syrup and FD&C Red 40 but with those freaks, you never know.

Come on! Even if it is mostly that, you know they added some blood too. 

[GravitySucks]

I hope that is just Karo syrup and FD&C Red 40 but with those freaks, you never know.

http://www.commonsenseevaluation.com/2016/11/04/wikileaks-exposes-disturbing-podesta-email-involving-spirit-cooking/#sthash.6os7Su5Z.dpbs

[albrecht]

http://www.commonsenseevaluation.com/2016/11/04/wikileaks-exposes-disturbing-podesta-email-involving-spirit-cooking/#sthash.6os7Su5Z.dpbs

Yeah, aware but that amount of blood would take several bodies, not just some finger pricking! Though that email about Podesta "finger cut" is interesting. Someone posted this here earlier but worth a repost. What a weird bunch of freaks!

[GravitySucks]

Yeah, aware but that amount of blood would take several bodies, not just some finger pricking! Though that email about Podesta "finger cut" is interesting. Someone posted this here earlier but worth a repost. What a weird bunch of freaks!

Did you see the picture hanging in Podesta's office in the campaign hq?

http://www.politico.com/gallery/2015/07/inside-hillarys-campaign-headquarters-210684?slide=5

[Jackstar]

What a weird bunch of freaks!