2016 General Election - Opinions, thoughts, polls, EC, odds

[GravitySucks]

The national numbers are now taking effect in the state by state polls. This week Pennsylvanian went from toss up to medium blue (7.7% lead for HC) and same with Colorado (6.7% lead for HC) Something really strange is going on in Alaska as it seems to be very tight up with with it going from a solid red all the way to a toss up (4.6% lead for DT)

Grey          = Tied to 5.8%
Light color =  5.9% -6.5%
Medium color = 6.5% - 7.8%
Solid color    = 7.8% and up

Hey Zeta. Just wanted to say thanks for your effort in your posts. Always informative

[21st Century Man]

Trump trails Clinton by 8 points after tape scandal, debate: Reuters/Ipsos poll


When asked to pick between the two major-party candidates, 45 percent of likely voters said they supported Clinton while 37 percent supported Trump. Another 18 percent said they would not support either candidate.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN12B2PV

[GravitySucks]

Interesting new poll. The graphs in the demographics are interesting. One thing that I picked up in towards the end is the number of people that actually plan on voting for their preferred candidate. Clinton's numbers went up, Trump's went down.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

[Zetaspeak]

Thank you for the kind words Gravity, I really appreciate it.    I like the demographic details you send there for the LATimes, but a real crazy article just came out about the LATimes formula and that a single 19 year old black Trump supporter from Illinois is single handily spiking (and dropping) the African-American percentage because their demographic breakdown are so low, this one guy is given a 30X more weight than the average respondents. It also seems to be a panel which a lot of the same respondents over and over again. (It's a NY Times article but it was retweeted by RW pollster/commentators Frank Luntz who said "This is why it’s an outlier" and Erick Erickson who said "This is the most interesting thing I’ve read about that LA Times tracking poll.") http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html?_r=0

@21CM Those numbers are really bad for Trump especially for a good history/reputation pollster like Ipsos. Going into deeper in the numbers Clinton is up by 7% (44-37) in likely voters in 2 and 4 way race. Remember Likely formula has a history if being pro Republican. If you look at registered voters Clinton is up 12 % in registered voters (45.5 - 33.5) it look like Clinton numbers are the same no matter if it's likely or registered voters, while Trump gets a bit more benefit of the doubt in likely voters and if you look at registered voters 3% of his votes go to a third party.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_10.11_.16_.pdf

Looking at a quick Top 5 polling update, not many new polls this week (surprisingly) from the Top 5. But the two that did (both improved Clinton numbers) Pew better get a new poll out or they will be out of top 5 and replaced by the CNN poll.
-Public Policy Polling   Clinton 46.5%  -    42.5%  Trump -   AltParty 7%  (9/28)   
-Ipsos Reid /Reuters   Clinton 45%   -    35.5% Trump -     AltParty  12.5%  (10/10)  [Clinton went for 9% to 9.5 lead in average likely and registered voters]
-Pew Research           Clinton 47.5    -     40%  Trump   -    AltParty  11.5 (9/12)
-AP/GFK                     Clinton  46%    -   40.5% Trump -   AltParty   11     (9/19)
-YouGov/Economist    Clinton  46%  -     40.5% Trump -    AltParty  6%      (10/8) [Clinton raised from 3.5 to 5.5% lead)
AVERAGE              CLINTON 46%  - 39.5%  TRUMP - AltParty  10.5%

With only two polls out of 5 coming in this week not much change, with Clinton gaining half a point. But with time running out. I know Trump supporters loved his second debate performance, but so far it doesn't seem like it did much more than stop the free fall. The thing that I have notice with Trump is that this entire 2+ months of following his numbers, he is literally stuck at 39/40% this entire time no matter what direction he takes. As of now I have Clinton averaging a 6.5% lead.

[21st Century Man]

Rasmussen has Trump back on top again with a 2 point lead, 43%-41%.  We'll see how it holds up.  Rasmussen has a Republican bias from what I've seen but there has been a 9 point swing towards Trump since Monday.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct13

[Jackstar]

Rasmussen has Trump back on top again with a 2 point lead, 43%-41%.  We'll see how it holds up.

[Jackstar]

« Reply #155 on: Today at 11:18:11 »

So, where are y'all at with numerology & politics?

[Dr. MD MD]

 

[Zetaspeak]

This weeks betting line the bottom fell off of Trump. People bet against him across the board where he lost an average of 5%.
-paddy power         Clinton 1/6   (84%)      Trump  5/1  (16%)  [Clinton gain 5%]
-William Hill            Clinton -700  (84%)    Trump  +450  (16%)  [Clinton gain 7%]
-Sportsbet              Clinton 1.18   (83%)    Trump   5.25   (17%) [Clinton gains 5%]
-Bodog                   Clinton -650   (83%)      Trump +400   (17%) [Clinton gains 4%] 
-Sportsbook            Clinton 1.15   (85%)     Trump  6.00   (15%) [Clinton gains 4%]

The average now is Clinton 84% - 16% Trump giving Clinton another 5% jump compared to last week. Three weeks ago Trump had at 37% of the betting wages, today that's been cut by more than in half. RCP and 538 odds seem to match up with RCP giving Clinton a  85% of their live betting odds, while 538 polls only give Clinton a 86% chance of winning the election..... This is when I normally do the NFL comparison, but there's one problem, there is no game on the NFL board this week that is anywhere close to as lopsided as Clinton/Trump is right now. NE/Cin and Buf/SF are the two biggest lopsided games on the schedule and the odds  are at -380/+290 (76% chance of winning) Clinton/Trump is at -700/+450 (84% chance of winning) To find something similar you would have to go to college football game like Air Force/New Mexico but even with that Air Force is just at -600. Last week Patriots/Clinton defeated Browns/Trump giving Hillary a 4-2 record for the season.

Looking at the electoral college non toss-up map this week, Clinton is now predicted to take Ohio by 7 out of 8 prediction sites (with one undecided) Everything else stayed stable. Most states are in unanimously agreed on except Arizona which is split (5-3 for Red) Also 7 out of 8 prediction maps have Trump under 200 EV.

538                     Dem 357       Repub 181     
electiongrapyh     Dem 346       Repub 192   
270/Sabato         Dem 341       Repub 197 
electionproje       Dem 351       Repub 187   
270/Rothenberg Dem 313       Repub 225       [Fla-29,Ohio-18,  NC-15, Iowa-6 split]
RCP                    Dem 340       Repub 198   
E-vote                Dem 352        Repub 186     
270/Prinston       Dem 341        Repub 197   
MY AVERAGE      Dem 340        Repub 198  [This week pickup; DEM: Ohio]

[Jackstar]

The average now is Clinton 84% - 16% Drumpf

This is when I normally do the NFL comparison, but there's one problem, there is no game on the NFL board this week that is anywhere close to as lopsided as Clinton/Drumpf is right now.

Looking at the electoral college non toss-up map this week, Clinton is now predicted to take Ohio by 7 out of 8 prediction sites (with one undecided) Everything else stayed stable.

[TigerLily]

. ... This is when I normally do the NFL comparison, but there's one problem, there is no game on the NFL board this week that is anywhere close to as lopsided as Clinton/Trump is right now...

Maybe we need to change sports.  It's a Cinderella Story


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bg8lSyGavc4

[Zetaspeak]

Rasmussen has Trump back on top again with a 2 point lead, 43%-41%.  We'll see how it holds up.  Rasmussen has a Republican bias from what I've seen but there has been a 9 point swing towards Trump since Monday.

Now it's flipped 43-41 Hillary (don't worry I am sure there will be another big swing a dozen more times before November) I know people love the big poll shift, I always view it the opposite, when i see a poll fluctuate so much I think it loses it credibility. It reminds me of a weight scale, if one day you are at 150 lbs, the next day it has you at 170lbs and the next day has you at 132 lbs, it pretty safe to say that's not your accurate weight and something is screwy with the scale. I feel the same with roller-coaster polls.

@TigerLily, first off, glad to see you back. I was thinking of possible sports that have more lopsided. I seen some pretty crazy highschool sports scores,  but I 'm concerned bringing up highschool athletes as Trump might want to date them

The "toss up" election map had a lot of changes this week. Hillary has now got to over 270 (even with toss up states not included) as New Hampshire went from toss up to medium blue (+6.8 for HC) The Grey/toss up states have pretty much stayed the same the problem with Trump is the light states (the states closest to becoming toss up) are all now Trump states that he Trump has to hold (there a Trump likes pink joke in there some where  ) Georgia, Indiana, Missouri & S. Carolina are all in the (5.0-6.3% range lead) that Trump has to hold, Trump also has to win every gray/toss up state and still grab a medium blue state. Minnesota is currently the closest medium blue state on the map with (Hillary up 6.6%) Michigan (10.5% for HC) and Penn (7.3 for HC) is starting to get out of range again and getting into solid blue territory 

Grey          = Tied to 5.0%
Light color =  5.0% -6.5%
Medium color = 6.5% - 7.3%
Solid color    = 7.3% and up

[TigerLily]

@TigerLily, first off, glad to see you back...

Thanks, Zeta. I pretty much lost interest in the other Politics threads. All serious debate on who is qualified to be POTUS was over after the first debate.  And look how much lower the race has sunk since then. I very much enjoy your thread with facts and data and your very entertaining analysis and commentary. Just about everything else in the Politics threads is so much stale hot air blowing around.

I do like your electoral college maps too. I thought this latest one was particularly pretty

[Jackstar]

I thought this latest one was particularly pretty

These violent delights have violent ends.

[TigerLily]

These violent delights have violent ends.

I think you mean violet. Red and blue melded together in harmony

[Jackstar]

I think you mean violet.

[Zetaspeak]

You are too kind TigerLiliy  I always enjoy hearing your points of view also.  I think you are right, the race started to get close in September but that first debate I think was a reality check for a lot of people and it seemed like it was the turning point of the election and he's been sliding back since and hasn't really recovered.

A bit of a weird spin I am hearing from the media saying that this weeks Trump controversy didn't take the hit they thought it would. I would somewhat disagree with that, since the first debate (late September) he has dropped steadily through that time (technically he hasn't really dropped more that Hillary picking up soft votes). So in a way the media is kinda right, his support will stick with him no matter what, the problem he faces is that very few soft/undecided end up going to him. Averaging the Trump votes since the convention he's been stuck at 39/40% this entire time no matter if it's a good week or a bad week. I think that's very telling (this week included)

-Public Policy Polling   Clinton 46.5%  -    42.5%  Trump -   AltParty 7%  (9/28)   
-Ipsos Reid /Reuters   Clinton 43%   -      34% Trump -     AltParty  12.5%  (10/13)  [Held steady from 9.5 to 9% for Clinton]
-Pew Research           Clinton 49.5%    -   41.5%  Trump  - AltParty  9% (10/10) [Clinton stayed steady from 7.5 to 8% lead]
-AP/GFK                     Clinton  46%    -   40.5% Trump -   AltParty   11     (9/19)
-YouGov/Economist    Clinton  46%  -     40.5% Trump -    AltParty  6%      (10/8)
AVERAGE              CLINTON 46%  - 39.5%  TRUMP - AltParty  11%

Clinton continues her 6.5% lead. Again that 39/40% keeps popping up for Trump, even if you look past the best 5 polls from last year. Some other recent polls if you average the results of 2 and 4 way races you get similar results. CBS HC 49 - 39.5, Wallstreet Journal HC 49.5 - 39, Fox News HC 47 - 39.5. George Washington Uni HC 47 - 39, Monmouth HC 51.5 - 39.5. There seems to be a pretty strong pattern starting to show. 

[Zetaspeak]

This weeks (non tossup) Electoral Map prediction sites average. The big change of the week is that the prediction sites have all shifted Arizona to Blue. The Dem are also have kept hold onto Ohio but it evenly split (3Blue-2Red-3Tie)

538                     Dem 358       Repub 180     
electiongrapyh     Dem 339       Repub 199   
270/Sabato         Dem 358       Repub 181    [Iowa-6 & Utah-6 split] 
electionproje       Dem 351       Repub 187   
270/WashPost     Dem 334       Repub 204       [Ohio-18, Ariz-11 & Nev-6 split] (oct 17)
RCP                    Dem 333       Repub 205   
E-vote                Dem 359        Repub 179      [Ohio-18 split]   
270/Prinston       Dem 343        Repub 195     [Ohio-18 split]     
MY AVERAGE      Dem 352        Repub 186 [This week pickup; DEM: Arizona]

[Jackstar]

[Lord Grantham]

Cool graphic, tell me more about it. When was it conducted, what was the sample size, etc, etc.

[Zetaspeak]

I am hearing a lot about how Brexit was wrong in the pre-vote polls, but from what I remember the polls itself were always really close. Weren't they mostly 51/49 either way?  What was incorrect was the pundits and analysts  who were claiming if the vote were close there were more "silent stay voters" and would have people have cold feet, that would push the total vote to stay. The irony of it all is that what mostly got the Brexit vote incorrect are using the same argument Trump fans.  But one thing for certain the spread currently  Clinton/Trump is much higher than Remain/Leave ever was.

Speaking of spread, this weeks betting lines. Not much movement at all this week, Trump improved a couple of points but Clinton had such a big lead it could be that it become kind of pointless to put any money on Hillary right now because the  return would be so low by just getting 17 cents for every dollar.
-paddy power         Clinton 2/11   (83%)      Trump  9/2  (17%)  [Trump gain 1%]
-William Hill            Clinton -600  (83%)    Trump  +400  (17%)  [Trump gain 1%]
-Sportsbet              Clinton 1.17   (82%)    Trump   5.00   (18%) [Trump gain 1%]
-Bodog                   Clinton -550   (81%)      Trump +350   (19%) [Trump gain 2%] 
-Sportsbook            Clinton 1.18   (83%)     Trump  5.00   (17%)  [Trump gain 2%]

The average now is Clinton 82% - 18% Trump  a 2% difference in Trump direction from last week. RCP betting odds gives Clinton a 84%/16% chance (1% improvement for Trump). 538 has it 87%/13% for Clinton in polls-only chances

As for comparing it to NFL football the closest this week is the most lopsided game on the board the Cleveland/Cincinnati game  Clinton/Bengals on sports bet site are at 1.17/1.16 while Trump/Browns are at 5.00/5.60

[21st Century Man]

The poll to watch is the IBD/TPP poll which has Trump up by 2.  It was the most accurate poll just prior to the 2012 election.

[Jackstar]

tell me more about it. When was it conducted, what was the sample size, etc, etc.

To the staggering advantage Donald Trump has over Hillary Clinton in the “social media” world is evidenced by his having double the amount of Facebook users (Trump nearly 12 million to Hillary’s 5 million), a 30% advantage in Twitter users (Trump over 10 million to Hillary’s 8 million), Facebook Livestream posts with Trump having 135,000 likes, 18,167 shares, 1.5 million views compared to Hillary having 11,000 likes, 0 shares, 321,000 views, YouTube Livestream showing Trump averaging 30,000 live viewers per stream while Hillary is averaging 500 live viewers per stream, Instagram where Trump has 2.2 million followers and Hillary 1.8 million, and Reddit where Trump has 197,696 subscribers and Hillary only has 24,429â€"but Hillary For Prison has 55,228 subscribers.

Standing opposed to Donald Trump’s staggering “social media” advantage is Hillary Clinton’s leftist propaganda leftist mainstream media supportersâ€"such as the New York Times with 1 million readers, and CNN-MSNBC cable news with 1.7 million combined hourly viewersâ€"but all of them having failed to stop Trump in his ascendency to become the next US president.

[=Schlyder=]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-23/new-podesta-email-exposes-dem-playbook-rigging-polls-through-oversamples

LOL 

[Zetaspeak]

The poll to watch is the IBD/TPP poll which has Trump up by 2.  It was the most accurate poll just prior to the 2012 election.

I been hearing a lot of that also. But I'd love to hear the formula people are getting to say that it is the most accurate. IBD final results had Obama by one, even though Obama won by 4. There her a handfull of pollsters that got it closer to four including ABC Obama+3 and Pew Obama+3 as seen here in RCP final pollster results http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html But either way I still would rather average a top 4 or 5 instead of putting all my trust in one basket, even if they had the best record. An anomaly can happen even to the best of them, I would think a top 4 or 5 protect yourself from that.

First off the positive news for Trump, Pennsylvania has gone from solid blue (+7.3) back to light blue with a(+5.3 lead for HC) Now the bad news, seeing Texas fall into light red (+4.7 for DT) that is such a huge difference maker if that ever becomes a legit swing state in the future. Another problem is half of the closest swing states (within 3.5 points and less) are old Romney states, Trump really need those wrapped up so he can focus on switching blue states (Pennsylvania is his current best bet)

Grey          = Tied to 3.5%
Light color =  5.0% -6.0%
Medium color = 6.0% - 7.0%
Solid color    = 7.0% and up

[Dr. MD MD]

Boy, this thread's credibility has really suffered lately. 

[Jackstar]

Boy, this thread's credibility has really suffered lately. 

Now the bad news,

Still, less bias than CNN.

[Zetaspeak]

[correction "light color map" is between 3.5% and  6.0%]  Trying to figure what you disagree with?  Texas state polls have multiple times fallen recently under that range during the last week. As for 3 out of 6 swing states being Romney states, again NC is slightly in blue (2.6% for Clinton), Arizona is about 50/50 (technically 1.2% for HC)  and Georgia seems to be averging around (3.1% for Trump) I would consider them in the top 6 closest states right now along with Ohio (1.2% for DT), Florida (2.8% for HC) and Iowa (3.2% for DT)

If you don't like that, you are not going to like this. The news is pushing of the polls tightening but Clinton lead overall on the average is still very comfortable. We got a new batch of polls across the board. Of course this was all done before today news.

-Public Policy Polling   Clinton 46%  -    40%  Trump -   AltParty 5%  (10/21)   [Clinton rose from 4% to 6%)
-Ipsos Reid /Reuters   Clinton 41%   -   33% Trump -     AltParty  17%  (10/24)  [Trump gained 1% to go from 9% to 8% down)
-Pew Research           Clinton 48%    -   41.5%  Trump  - AltParty  10.5% (10/25) [Trump gained 1.5% to go from 8% down to 6.5% down)
-AP/GFK                     Clinton  51.5%    - 38% Trump -   AltParty   10.5%     (10/24)(Huge Clinton jump from 5.5% to 13%)
-YouGov/Economist    Clinton  47.5%  -     44% Trump -    AltParty  7%      (10/26) (Trump cut Clinton lead from 5.5% to 3.5%)
AVERAGE              CLINTON 45.5%  -   38 %  TRUMP - AltParty  10.5%  (removing non-voters: Clinton 48% - Trump 41% - AltParty 11% )

Averaging it all out Clinton still has a 7.5% lead. YouGov has it the closest, while AP/GFK has it by a landslide.  But looking at the three top polls they fall under the 6 % - 8% range which is where I assume they are as of now.   

SENATE

The Senate though seems like it going to be really close. The prediction sites are split on who going to take it (note 2 independents sits with Dems)
-538 says Dems win it 52-48
-Election Projection give it a 50-50 tie
-RCP has Repub holding power  52-48
-electoralvote has Repub holding it 51-48 with a tie.

[albrecht]

I been hearing a lot of that also. But I'd love to hear the formula people are getting to say that it is the most accurate. IBD final results had Obama by one, even though Obama won by 4. There her a handfull of pollsters that got it closer to four including ABC Obama+3 and Pew Obama+3 as seen here in RCP final pollster results http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html But either way I still would rather average a top 4 or 5 instead of putting all my trust in one basket, even if they had the best record. An anomaly can happen even to the best of them, I would think a top 4 or 5 protect yourself from that.

First off the positive news for Trump, Pennsylvania has gone from solid blue (+7.3) back to light blue with a(+5.3 lead for HC) Now the bad news, seeing Texas fall into light red (+4.7 for DT) that is such a huge difference maker if that ever becomes a legit swing state in the future. Another problem is half of the closest swing states (within 3.5 points and less) are old Romney states, Trump really need those wrapped up so he can focus on switching blue states (Pennsylvania is his current best bet)

Grey          = Tied to 3.5%
Light color =  5.0% -6.0%
Medium color = 6.0% - 7.0%
Solid color    = 7.0% and up

I don't put much trust in polls with their methods of contact but it is interesting to see how well the Obama/DNC open-borders, "catch and release," and "refugee" policy is working. Of course the country was doomed in 65 but the acceleration with the no rule of law immigration policy is interesting to see. I suspect that, short of something drastic, there will be a big change and maybe even new Parties formed. Or even a break up if some demographics/money flee to certain areas. Or, at least, on the good side, LOTS of political gridlock.

[Zetaspeak]

The Republicans have brought it onto themselves with the Hispanic voting problem. GWB split the Hispanic vote 40/58 vs Kerry in 2004. It's the last two elections that  McCain got 31% and Romney 27%.

The betting markets certainly reacted to this weekends news but it seems to have stabilized today with little money even going back to Clinton after a run ton Trump on Friday and Saturday.
-paddy power         Clinton 2/7   (75%)      Trump  9/2  (25%)  [Trump gain 8%]
-William Hill            Clinton -300  (72%)    Trump  +225  (28%)  [Trump gain 11%]
-Sportsbet              Clinton 1.30   (74%)    Trump   3.50   (26%) [Trump gain 8%]
-Bodog                   Clinton -350   (73%)      Trump +220   (27%) [Trump gain 8%] 
-Sportsbook            Clinton 1.28   (76%)     Trump  3.80   (24%)  [Trump gain 7%]

The average now is Clinton 74% - 26% Trump  a 8% difference in Trump direction from last week. Even though a big improvement from last week for Trump it still doesn't match his high on mid-September where Trump had 38% of the betting market.  RCP betting odds gives Clinton a 81%/19% chance (3% improvement for Trump). 538 has it 78%/22% for Clinton in Now Cast and polls only (9% improvement for Trump).... As for the NFL odds. Trumps odds of winning is still lower than the most lopsided game on the NFL schedule which is favorite New England at underdog Buffalo. Last week Clinton/Bengals defeated Trump/Browns giving Hillary a 5-3 record for the season

Senate

I can't find too many betting odds for the senate, I only found two
-PaddyPower:  Dems 3/10 (77%)  Repubs 21/10 (33%)
-Sportsbet:      Dems 1.30 (77%)  Repubs  3.10 (33%)
I would personally like more than just two to get a more wide range reading.

Non tossup electoral map

Trump reclaimed Arizona (barely 5-3 on prediction sites) and Ohio  (5 red, 1 blue, 2 ties) Florida has become more debatable this week as well with it going from unanimous blue to 6-2 blue this week.

538                     Dem 323       Repub 215     
electiongraph     Dem 300       Repub 238   
270/Sabato         Dem 358       Repub 180    [Iowa-6 & Utah-6 split] 
electionproje       Dem 333       Repub 205   
270/Rothbrg      Dem 334       Repub 204       [Ohio-18 & Iowa-6 split]
RCP                    Dem 304       Repub 234   
E-vote                Dem 335        Repub 203      [Ohio-18 & Iowa-6  split]   
270/Prinston       Dem 326        Repub 212     [Iowa-6 split]     
MY AVERAGE      Dem 323        Repub 215 [This week pickup; REPUB: Arizona & Ohio]