US jets escorting Erdogan back to Istanbul (defended from the TAF) would have been an in-your-face move and 180 degrees from offering him asylum, so I missed something or am not following. Turkey's military is still a key bulwark against Putin/Russia so I don't think a coup would sour NATO against them beyond perfunctory moans about democratic, especially since Erdogan's Turkey was the gateway for thousands of Euro-born muslims to join ISIS in Syria, and for many to return forming cells in W Europe. Erdogan is a free agent playing the US/NATO against ME stability for his own goals.He was fine ISIS as long as they were beating Assad. It's only in the past year that Erdogan allowed Incirlik to be used to launch against ISIS, and he still hasn't really closed the border. Turkey is the main market for ISIS oil.
This ain't over . Islamist Erdogan is purging the Kemalists as we post. We'll see soon enough whether he'll leverage the "crisis" as an excuse to go into Syria and tempt Russian strikes on a NATO member. Erdogan has studied the board and had a decade to align pieces for his move. It's my hunch that he's timing a major move for the lame duck/turnover period in Washington. Meanwhile our boy Kerry is proceeding with yet one more huge group hug on terrorism in DC week. Carry on, our Griever-In-Chief is ready with B-52s loaded with balloons and teddy bears.
As I said before, Erdogan may have initially accepted the US offer of escort/sanctuary, then changed his mind when forces loyal to him seemed to be getting the upper hand. Probably seemed like a good idea early on, what with plotters shooting at and trying to bomb him before taking off from Marmaris. We know from the original Reuters article his Gulfstream went into a holding pattern for some period of time between leaving Marmaris and landing at Istanbul. Why not wait before deciding to split? You've got escorts you know have thwarted armed fighters from firing on you, as long as you have the gas and are safe.....
I never said the US/NATO would "sour" on Turkey after a coup. Just the opposite in fact, based on the coups that have occurred there previously without significant impact to NATO. Rather I was responding to your supposition the good faith relationship between the US and nominally secular Turkish military would go down the toilet if we had offered him sanctuary. I simply pointed out the Turkish military, who are ostensibly non-Islamist, are smart enough not to turn their back on their principal supplier of weapons systems/logistical support over what would be sold to the world as a humanitarian gesture by the US.
I do agree with you this isn't over, and Erdogan probably does feel he has a free hand (at least politically) until Nov, maybe Jan. Can't see him doing anything stupid vis a vis Russia however as I'm not sure he can count on NATO support for such misadventures for the reasons you alluded to.
