Ebola

[paladin1991]

Failure to comply with a quarantine order could result in misdemeanor criminal charges.

So what happens when you make bail?

Enforce that!  The People's Republic of California is releasing prisoners fm custody because there isn't enough room for them in the jail and prisons we have. 

[bateman]

I KNEW IT!!!!!!!!!11

[area51drone]

Finally some fucking honesty coming from the CDC...

http://nypost.com/2014/10/29/cdc-admits-droplets-from-a-sneeze-could-spread-ebola/

[aldousburbank]

What is, what does Alex Jones fantasize about when he's doing it?

[paladin1991]

Finally some fucking honesty coming from the CDC...

http://nypost.com/2014/10/29/cdc-admits-droplets-from-a-sneeze-could-spread-ebola/

Another no shitter.

[VtaGeezer]

Finally some fucking honesty coming from the CDC...

http://nypost.com/2014/10/29/cdc-admits-droplets-from-a-sneeze-could-spread-ebola/

I don't think CDC ever denied that; that's why they described the "3 ft rule" weeks ago.  Think about it...if Ebola spread like the flu or a cold by sneezes and coughing; would there be only 5000 cases in W Africa where 30 million live?  Or 5 million cases, spreading like new flu variations always do.  It's the Post...they won't be content until the torches and pitchforks come out. 

[albrecht]

I don't think CDC ever denied that; that's why they described the "3 ft rule" weeks ago.  Think about it...if Ebola spread like the flu or a cold by sneezes and coughing; would there be only 5000 cases in W Africa where 30 million live?  Or 5 million cases, spreading like new flu variations always do.  It's the Post...they won't be content until the torches and pitchforks come out.

I disagree with you here. The reason why the "flu" spreads so well is not JUST because sneezing spreads it but because it tends to cross species and mutate rather easily. (Which is why the vaccines don't necessarily protect 100% and they need to keep coming up with new vaccines as they try to "guess," scientifically, what the next strain will look like.) If Ebola combined the ability to be passed in sneezing more distance and ALSO developed the ability to mutate and cross-species more easily! Like passing into swine, birds, etc and to humans (as supposedly Reston did) it could be much, much worse. Right now, it appears, to be relatively stable and not changing/mutating. That is good. This strain still can live a long time on things (door knobs, toilet seats, waste baskets, soiled bedding, etc even in cold temps I hear) and be found in sperm, for example, far after the person has "survived" and cleared to be out of quarantine because asymptomatic and virus not found in other body fluids.

[VtaGeezer]

I disagree with you here. The reason why the "flu" spreads so well is not JUST because sneezing spreads it but because it tends to cross species and mutate rather easily. (Which is why the vaccines don't necessarily protect 100% and they need to keep coming up with new vaccines as they try to "guess," scientifically, what the next strain will look like.) If Ebola combined the ability to be passed in sneezing more distance and ALSO developed the ability to mutate and cross-species more easily! Like passing into swine, birds, etc and to humans (as supposedly Reston did) it could be much, much worse. Right now, it appears, to be relatively stable and not changing/mutating. That is good. This strain still can live a long time on things (door knobs, toilet seats, waste baskets, soiled bedding, etc even in cold temps I hear) and be found in sperm, for example, far after the person has "survived" and cleared to be out of quarantine because asymptomatic and virus not found in other body fluids.

"Could" and "if" don't matter.  An asteroid "could" erase us on Sunday morning.  I heard an interviewed virologist say that Ebola "could" mutate to airborne...in 100,000 years. It and most viruses are quite stable in transmission and reproduction.  Influenza viruses mutate, crossing over carriers but not their methods of transmission, or reproduction, and only rarely in virulence.  Mutation makes a good sci-fi device, but it works at the margins not changing the fundamentals.  If Ebola transmission was as easy as hair-on-fire amateurs claim, Africa would littered with corpses.  It's affected only a relatively small number; 13K total out of about 20 million, with 5000 deaths, since this outbreak started early in the year.  I'll stick with the people who've studied this virus for 40 years; not amateurs, who have no more business getting into this issue than does Noory and his turmeric with cancer. 

[albrecht]

"Could" and "if" don't matter.  An asteroid "could" erase us on Sunday morning.  I heard an interviewed virologist say that Ebola "could" mutate to airborne...in 100,000 years. It and most viruses are quite stable in transmission and reproduction.  Influenza viruses mutate, crossing over carriers but not their methods of transmission, or reproduction, and only rarely in virulence.  Mutation makes a good sci-fi device, but it works at the margins not changing the fundamentals.  If Ebola transmission was as easy as hair-on-fire amateurs claim, Africa would littered with corpses.  It's affected only a relatively small number; 13K total out of about 20 million, with 5000 deaths, since this outbreak started early in the year.  I'll stick with the people who've studied this virus for 40 years; not amateurs, who have no more business getting into this issue than does Noory and his turmeric with cancer.

What is funny is that now, with Ebola or the Flu, suddenly it is "if" or "when" and it doesn't matter-  but for unproven, more complex things (due the number of variables) like global cooling, global warming, climate change, climate disruption we need to "err on the side of caution", implement taxes and regulations now, get our carbon-footprint down "just in case." It is "settled science" etc.

And I guess we need not worry because only "rarely" does flu become virulent. Tell that to me once you tell me how many people died in the 1918 outbreak. Epidemiologists only "estimate" between 50 to 100 million because we don't know. Petty change, I guess, considering the the alarmism by the CDC, governments, and media back in '09 when we were told a huge flu outbreak and, maybe <15K died worldwide. (Still bad but nothing compared the scare the government told us about.) But if anything should be taken "with caution" and prepare for "maybe if" scenarios it is viral diseases. Not just for people but for our livestock (which would impact the economy etc pretty badly.) And especially because early on in this outbreak someone even claimed the warming disruption caused this Ebola outbreak, right? Since it is the "warming" we must fight and be concerned about Ebola.

[PB the Deplorable]

...  I'll stick with the people who've studied this virus for 40 years; not amateurs, who have no more business getting into this issue ...

Like Ebola Czar and political bagman Ron Klain?  Or maybe the guy who told us Ebola couldn't come to the US, about a day and a half before we got our first case?

Or the people who told us we can't get it on a bus, etc, but now say we can get it by being sneezed on?

Maybe it IS time we went with the experts, and not the Obama hacks.

[Yorkshire pud]

Like Ebola Czar and political bagman Ron Klain?  Or maybe the guy who told us Ebola couldn't come to the US, about a day and a half before we got our first case?

And what were the exact words used? Clue: Not 'couldn't come to the US'


And the panic generated by the despised media to suggest entire airliners of passengers being infected hasn't happened since the nurse who flew from Cleveland to Dallas. Either that or it has happened and the same media generating panic have got together and covered it up.

The other cases have been medics. Two of whom have recovered, and the upshot of that, is their blood is being used to develop a serum.

Naturally, the same panic will simply make the medic thinking of going to Africa to try and halt and maintain the disease to think twice, why should they go?; when they can look forward to mass condemnation and being ostracised by the ignorant who probably come across far easier  ways of getting ill every day.

[Yorkshire pud]

Finally some fucking honesty coming from the CDC...

http://nypost.com/2014/10/29/cdc-admits-droplets-from-a-sneeze-could-spread-ebola/

Of course...No agenda there from NYP. That paragon of accurate reporting.

[area51drone]

I think there is a lot we don't know in science, whether it's physics, biology, geology, etc.   To pretend like we do know exactly how it might be transmitted in all cases is overreaching and dangerous with something like ebola.   Just because someone says "oh, it won't mutate" doesn't mean it won't.  Mutations happen in one reproductive cycle, so it is very arrogant for a scientist to say that a mutation couldn't happen.   The chances of a mutation might be low, and that's why a dangerous mutation is said to take millions of years, but the lottery strikes people now and then too, doesn't it? 

I'd feel a lot better about it if the government would step up the z-map production so that if it did get out of control, you were a lot more likely to live.   I'm thankful for the few who have gotten in here that they've all survived with the one exception.   But we haven't seen it where hundreds of people are infected at once.  If that happens, it will be a shit storm.

[PB the Deplorable]

... Naturally, the same panic will simply make the medic thinking of going to Africa to try and halt and maintain the disease to think twice, why should they go?; when they can look forward to mass condemnation and being ostracised by the ignorant who probably come across far easier  ways of getting ill every day.

So a goodhearted person would be willing to take time out of their lives to go all the way to Africa and help people there, at the risk of some danger to themselves - but would change their minds and pass on that if it meant being quarantined for 3 weeks - at full pay - when they were ready to come back, so as to not risk exposing others here?

Does that make sense to you?

[VtaGeezer]

What is funny is that now, with Ebola or the Flu, suddenly it is "if" or "when" and it doesn't matter-  but for unproven, more complex things (due the number of variables) like global cooling, global warming, climate change, climate disruption we need to "err on the side of caution", implement taxes and regulations now, get our carbon-footprint down "just in case." It is "settled science" etc.

And I guess we need not worry because only "rarely" does flu become virulent. Tell that to me once you tell me how many people died in the 1918 outbreak. Epidemiologists only "estimate" between 50 to 100 million because we don't know. Petty change, I guess, considering the the alarmism by the CDC, governments, and media back in '09 when we were told a huge flu outbreak and, maybe <15K died worldwide. (Still bad but nothing compared the scare the government told us about.) But if anything should be taken "with caution" and prepare for "maybe if" scenarios it is viral diseases. Not just for people but for our livestock (which would impact the economy etc pretty badly.) And especially because early on in this outbreak someone even claimed the warming disruption caused this Ebola outbreak, right? Since it is the "warming" we must fight and be concerned about Ebola.

You may as well throw in the Black Death as compare the 1918 flu to influenza today, let alone Ebola, but obfuscation is a known hazard when engaging your posts.  We're talking about this outbreak of Ebola; not some unknown new virus.  For the third time...this outbreak has been ongoing since Feb/Mar and has infected only about 13000 people in a region of Africa with high population density and almost no medical services.  Virologists with expertise keep telling us this is transmitted by direct contact with fluids, and will not mutate past that in our time.  That should drive a stake through the ravings about sneezes and toilet seats, but people seem to prefer being irrationally fearful or to scare others. Amateurs with PhDs from the U of Google should butt the hell out and quit scaring people with outlandish "what ifs".  As of today, as many people have died from rocket ships blowing up in the US this year as from Ebola.

[Yorkshire pud]

So a goodhearted person would be willing to take time out of their lives to go all the way to Africa and help people there, at the risk of some danger to themselves - but would change their minds and pass on that if it meant being quarantined for 3 weeks - at full pay - when they were ready to come back, so as to not risk exposing others here?

Does that make sense to you?

Who is establishing that risk? The media? The public? Politicians? Other medics who know what they're dealing with? The first have an agenda because it sells, the second because they depend on the first because they know no better (that despised media again), the third who want votes to stay in office, by pandering to the first and by extension selling something to the second. The forth? Well the forth are treated as an irrelevance by the first three. Maybe because they're not panicking.

[VtaGeezer]

Like Ebola Czar and political bagman Ron Klain?  Or maybe the guy who told us Ebola couldn't come to the US, about a day and a half before we got our first case?

Or the people who told us we can't get it on a bus, etc, but now say we can get it by being sneezed on?

Maybe it IS time we went with the experts, and not the Obama hacks.

Thank you Dr. PB.  Where did you do your residency in epidemiology?

[PB the Deplorable]

Who is establishing that risk? The media? The public? Politicians? Other medics who know what they're dealing with? The first have an agenda because it sells, the second because they depend on the first because they know no better (that despised media again), the third who want votes to stay in office, by pandering to the first and by extension selling something to the second. The forth? Well the forth are treated as an irrelevance by the first three. Maybe because they're not panicking.

First off, who is panicking?

It is a bit interesting that the same people who literally are panicking over fraudulent so-called Climate-whatever-the-word-is-today claims, are smugly accusing everyone else of Ebola panic while they scorn any measures to ensure it doesn't turn into a problem here. 

Who is establishing the risk?  I dunno, the people talking about catching it from a sneeze?

[PB the Deplorable]

Thank you Dr. PB.  Where did you do your residency in epidemiology?

You're welcome.

I was agreeing with you about consulting experts.  We just differ on who they are

[RealCool Daddio]

First off, who is panicking?

It is a bit interesting that the same people who literally are panicking over fraudulent so-called Climate-whatever-the-word-is-today claims, are smugly accusing everyone else of Ebola panic while they scorn any measures to ensure it doesn't turn into a problem here. 

Who is establishing the risk?  I dunno, the people talking about catching it from a sneeze?

It is also interesting that some people get their information on both matters from scientists, and others from Fox News and right wing pundits. 

[albrecht]

It is also interesting that some people get their information on both matters from scientists, and others from Fox News and right wing pundits.

Is the Ebola science "settled?" Have scientists reached the vaunted "consensus?" If so why does the CDC keep changing their information? Why the confusion in government with regard to quarantines (ok for troops but not for doctors?) And since it is "settled science" surely some taxes or better yet some global conferences leading to global regulations will cure the problem.

[VtaGeezer]

You're welcome.

I was agreeing with you about consulting experts.  We just differ on who they are

My experts:



Your experts:

[PB the Deplorable]

My experts:

Are you sure?  They don't look like Ron Klain and Barack Obama to me.

[136 or 142]

Reposting what an actual expert said:
Virologist John Ball at the University of Nottingham interviewed on "The Science Hour" on BBC
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p028hnzv
at around the 7 minute mark

Q:"Could the virus change the way it transmits and become airborne?"

A:"You can certainly understand why people are worried about that.  The reason that the virus isn't very contagious is because it has adopted this reasonably  inefficient transmission route. We know that lots of people are becoming infected but in general they're in very, very close contact dealing and handling with body fluids. But, there is a great worry, could this virus suddenly change and start to become spread by the airborne route and the reality is that we don't see that with viruses. Generally they tend to stick to the transmission route that they've adopted in the host because they generally would have to start using new receptors and also start to overcome lots of other factors that are present in different cells and in different tissues and it would have to overcome it instantaneously and I don't think we're going to see that."

[136 or 142]

"So a goodhearted person would be willing to take time out of their lives to go all the way to Africa and help people there, at the risk of some danger to themselves - but would change their minds and pass on that if it meant being quarantined for 3 weeks - at full pay - when they were ready to come back, so as to not risk exposing others here? "

Hey man boy (or, more accurately, man child) I thought you were all concerned about the constitution.  You do realize it is unconstitutional to lock someone up for no reason?


Another attorney representing Hickox, New York civil rights lawyer Norman Siegel, said she would contest any potential court order requiring her quarantine at home. “The conditions that the state of Maine is now requiring Kaci to comply with are unconstitutional and illegal and there is no justification for the state of Maine to infringe on her liberty,” he said.

I guess for you, the constitution only matters when you aren't frightened out of your tiny mind.  Typical dimwitted conservative hypocrite.

[albrecht]

"So a goodhearted person would be willing to take time out of their lives to go all the way to Africa and help people there, at the risk of some danger to themselves - but would change their minds and pass on that if it meant being quarantined for 3 weeks - at full pay - when they were ready to come back, so as to not risk exposing others here? "

Hey man boy (or, more accurately, man child) I thought you were all concerned about the constitution.  You do realize it is unconstitutional to lock someone up for no reason?


Another attorney representing Hickox, New York civil rights lawyer Norman Siegel, said she would contest any potential court order requiring her quarantine at home. “The conditions that the state of Maine is now requiring Kaci to comply with are unconstitutional and illegal and there is no justification for the state of Maine to infringe on her liberty,” he said.

I guess for you, the constitution only matters when you aren't frightened out of your tiny mind.  Typical dimwitted conservative.

At least Maine is using the law, passed by the legislature, and getting approval from a judge. The President just does (as others in the past have done) Executive Orders and, at will, can decide to quarantine people.
www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/07/31/executive-order-revised-list-quarantinable-communicable-diseases

[136 or 142]

At least Maine is using the law, passed by the legislature, and getting approval from a judge. The President just does (as others in the past have done) Executive Orders and, at will, can decide to quarantine people.
www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/07/31/executive-order-revised-list-quarantinable-communicable-diseases

The judge did not give approval.

[albrecht]

The judge did not give approval.

Exactly, they, unlike the President, they are allowing the system to work. What if the governor of Maine unilaterally decided to quarantine her with no law previously in place and with no judicial oversight? As this guy Obama proclaims the right to do so (as he is doing with the troops he sent over? Arguably, in his position of commander-in-chief, grants him that authority though one wonders about the deployment itself as suspect. Is it a "war on Ebola?" If so why no Congressional declaration of such?) But he also proclaims he can quarantine anyone, if he alone decides (using as argument, as always, the Commerce clause.)
https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2014/08/06/2014-18682/revised-list-of-quarantinable-communicable-diseases

[136 or 142]

Initially the governor of Maine did unilaterally quarantine her.

[area51drone]

Reposting what an actual expert said:
Virologist John Ball at the University of Nottingham interviewed on "The Science Hour" on BBC
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p028hnzv
at around the 7 minute mark

Q:"Could the virus change the way it transmits and become airborne?"

A:"You can certainly understand why people are worried about that.  The reason that the virus isn't very contagious is because it has adopted this reasonably  inefficient transmission route. We know that lots of people are becoming infected but in general they're in very, very close contact dealing and handling with body fluids. But, there is a great worry, could this virus suddenly change and start to become spread by the airborne route and the reality is that we don't see that with viruses. Generally they tend to stick to the transmission route that they've adopted in the host because they generally would have to start using new receptors and also start to overcome lots of other factors that are present in different cells and in different tissues and it would have to overcome it instantaneously and I don't think we're going to see that."

That's the problem.  Think is different than know.  Is it unlikely?  Maybe.  But I bet they couldn't even tell you for the common cold or flu whether or not it will mutate in a given way or another over the next year.   That's why people have to constantly get flu shots is because the virus constantly changes.   One little change in the wrong person could lead to disastrous consequences.

I'm willing to trust the experts that the risk is very low that they won't spread the disease if a carrier has no symptoms.  The problem is that, as we all know, symptoms can come on very quickly - you might be out and about and still need to get home.. but let's just grab that last hamburger or pizza before going, oh and I need milk from the grocery story.    Quarantine is necessary.