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[OFFICIAL] Iowa Caucus Thread. Predictions, Happenings, etc.

Started by The King of Kings, February 01, 2016, 04:35:18 AM


https://twitter.com/rabite/status/694350560959598592

Rubio never polled above 12%. As soon as his donor Microsoft counts votes, Rubio immediately doubles to 23%

Designx

Well this all points to my previous prediction that Trump wont be the candidate. I think as the others drop out of the race that their supporters will funnel to Cruz and Rubio. I think Trump is weak in the south and midwest and the states he would do best in are heavily blue states already.



Quote from: Designx on February 01, 2016, 11:22:30 PM
I really doubt it - if the White House spokesman Josh Earnest is to be believed, they (Department of Justice) are looking at other people - most likely those close to or around Clinton. I wouldn't be surprised if a technical adviser to Clinton gets the blame. If Clinton acted without knowledge or with poor information of the lack of security inherent to her emails, I'm not sure the blame will fall completely or at all on her. In the end it might just be another national security boondoggle where the entire agency takes the blame and not a single person.

It`ll definitely be interesting. I have to admit, I wouldn`t be shocked if she wiggles out of an indictment. At this stage, I don`t put anything past the Obama administration. However, I`m going with information given to me from a very close contact of mine within the Bureau, who has assured me, there`s enough to put anybody away for many years --his words; not mine.

Additionally, there`s great animus between the FBI and the White House. The feeling in the bureau is that Obama is trying to influence the investigation. NOT GOOD. That`s why every time the Administration makes some ridiculous statement (Josh Earnest), you`ll notice there`s a leak. Trust me, that`s no coincidence.

Designx

Quote from: FightTheFuture on February 02, 2016, 12:26:58 AM
It`ll definitely be interesting. I have to admit, I wouldn`t be shocked if she wiggles out of an indictment. At this stage, I don`t put anything past the Obama administration. However, I`m going with information given to me from a very close contact of mine within the Bureau, who has assured me, there`s enough to put anybody away for many years --his words; not mine.

Additionally, there`s great animus between the FBI and the White House. The feeling in the bureau is that Obama is trying to influence the investigation. NOT GOOD. That`s why every time the Administration makes some ridiculous statement (Josh Earnest), you`ll notice there`s a leak. Trust me, that`s no coincidence.

If Hillary is still standing after all these years with the amount of corruption between her and Bill, I doubt anything can take her out. Maybe its best to just let her run and lose (again) since that could be the best punishment she could (and probably would) face and I almost guarantee she will turn into the ugly old lady she really is the day of her defeat.

SciFiAuthor

Quote from: Donald Noory on February 01, 2016, 09:56:11 PM
Yeah like the scummy flyers Cruz's team left at people's doors, stating not voting is a violation, and voting records are public, and you and your neighbor's voting records will be published. Guy's a douche and doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell of being elected president.

I actually agree with you. That flyer was highly unethical and reveals the type of person Cruz is. The evangelicals really need to realize that he's a politician, not a preacher, despite acting like one. And if he ends up the nominee, he cannot win that election. It is mathematically impossible. A vote for Cruz is a vote for Hillary Clinton.

Jackstar

Quote from: SciFiAuthor on February 02, 2016, 01:02:42 AM
A vote for Cruz is a vote for Hillary Clinton.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/02/02/sometimes-iowa-democrats-award-caucus-delegates-coin-flip/79680342/


QuoteThose figures add up to just 424 participants, leaving 60 apparently missing. When those numbers were plugged into the formula that determines delegate allocations, Clinton received four delegates and Sanders received three â€" leaving one delegate unassigned.

Unable to account for that numerical discrepancy and the orphan delegate it produced, the Sanders campaign challenged the results and precinct leaders called a Democratic Party hot line set up to advise on such situations.

Party officials recommended they settle the dispute with a coin toss.

A Clinton supporter correctly called “heads” on a quarter flipped in the air, and Clinton received a fifth delegate.

Similar situations were reported elsewhere, including at a precinct in Des Moines, at another precinct in Des Moines, in Newton, in West Branch  and in Davenport. In all five situations, Clinton won the toss.

Don’t put too much credence is Trump’s loss in the Iowa caucus.

It really isn’t significant.

Why?

Because the votes in Iowa were restricted to registered Republican voters and a lot of them are sticking to the party line.

Trump’s support among Republicans is out on the periphery.

The Democrat establishment knows a lot of registered Democrats favor Trump. According to The Upshot by Civis Analytics, a Democratic data firm, Democrats in the South, Appalachia and the industrial North support Trump.

In early January Mercury Analytics, a research company with clients that include MSNBC and Fox News, conducted an online poll. It revealed a full 20% of Democrats said they would go against the party line and vote for Trump in a general election.

Independents are a large factor as well.

An IVN poll conducted in September showed 25.9% of them going for Trump.

“Some of the polls that show heavy support for Trump have also shown him doing better among self-identified independents who lean Republican than among regular GOP voters. At least some of those independents may not be in the habit of voting in primaries and caucuses, which could make a robust turnout operation even more necessary,” the Los Angeles Times noted in December.

Polls can be inaccurate and fickle, of course, but the upside for Trump is he has a lot of support among people who don’t figure into party metrics.

Trump’s numbers will rise when voting begins in open voting states.

Cruz and Rubio don’t stand a chance.

http://www.infowars.com/heres-why-trump-lost-iowa-and-why-it-doesnt-matter/

Quote from: SciFiAuthor on February 02, 2016, 01:02:42 AM
A vote for Cruz is a vote for Hillary Clinton.

Incorrect. Cruz polls better against Clinton than Trump does. And Rubio does just slightly better than Cruz.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html


SciFiAuthor

Quote from: FightTheFuture on February 02, 2016, 01:12:46 AM
Incorrect. Cruz polls better against Clinton than Trump does. And Rubio does just slightly better than Cruz.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

It has nothing to do with the popular vote. It's the electoral college. If the GOP wants to win this, they need to introduce some kind of wildcard to change how the map behaves because they haven't a chance in hell if the trends continue as they did in the last election. Too many red states went blue last time around. If VA and Florida are no longer reliable, which that appears to be the case, then no Republican will be elected to the presidency again under the present circumstances.

Introduce a wildcard that can resonate with independents as Trump can, then there is a chance. But at this point, the evangelicals of Iowa voted for Hillary Clinton because Ted Cruz is good at acting like a church pastor.

Quote from: Showroom Dummy on February 02, 2016, 01:28:20 AM
this is funny

cucks debating SJW broads
Imagine having to listen to a debate between Democrats.
It's a form of torture.



Trump avoided the Iowa curse! It's a relief.

What can we say? They are country folk posing as intellectuals out there.
Trump will march to glory next week among real world citizens.

Quote from: SciFiAuthor on February 02, 2016, 01:47:54 AM
It has nothing to do with the popular vote. It's the electoral college. If the GOP wants to win this, they need to introduce some kind of wildcard to change how the map behaves because they haven't a chance in hell if the trends continue as they did in the last election. Too many red states went blue last time around. If VA and Florida are no longer reliable, which that appears to be the case, then no Republican will be elected to the presidency again under the present circumstances.

Introduce a wildcard that can resonate with independents as Trump can, then there is a chance. But at this point, the evangelicals of Iowa voted for Hillary Clinton because Ted Cruz is good at acting like a church pastor.

Trump is not a conservative. He can not win a general election as a Republican. Period. He`s John McCain with money; an arrogant Mitt Romney -- except more liberal. Trump is a New York democrat at heart. If elected, he will govern as a liberal, and worse, appoint Supreme Court Justices as a liberal.

SciFiAuthor

Quote from: FightTheFuture on February 02, 2016, 02:51:24 AM
Trump is not a conservative. He can not win a general election as a Republican. Period. He`s John McCain with money; an arrogant Mitt Romney -- except more liberal. Trump is a New York democrat at heart. If elected, he will govern as a liberal, and worse, appoint Supreme Court Justices as a liberal.

Yeah, that's thinking from years ago. There is no such thing as a conservative anymore. There hasn't been for some time. It was all bullshit, Barry Goldwater called it out decades ago just before the evangelicals and neoliberals poisoned American politics. The issues everyone has worried about and voted over the last two decades, such as abortion, were just memes and wedge issues promoted by talk show hosts, political talking heads, politicians, pastors; everyone in society that makes their living through bullshitting people. But throughout it, the politicians have never intended to solve those issues. They are too useful to bring up when trying to get elected to squander by solving. That's why they are still with us.

Do you really think, at the end of a Cruz presidency, abortion will be illegal? Fuck no it won't be. And even if it did end up illegal, it would be inconsistent with the constitution. The opposition to abortion is solely based in people's religious philosophy. Separation of church and state prevent us, constitutionally, from imposing someone's religious philosophy on someone else. It's very simple, the choice of the evangelical is to shit on their religion or shit on the constitution. How can Cruz do both? Well, he managed to do it by bullshitting everyone and acting like a pastor. That's pretty sad.

What Republican president since Reagan has appointed a conservative justice to the SCOTUS? They end up being liberal, time and time again. The last time it happened was Clarence Thomas and he almost got borked over the pubic hair on the coke can affair. Well, that's lawyers. Cruz is a lawyer.

You guys fell for that "New York values" abomination, so I'm asking you, why do you have faith in lawyer values?


Quote from: SciFiAuthor on February 02, 2016, 03:39:15 AM
Yeah, that's thinking from years ago. There is no such thing as a conservative anymore. There hasn't been for some time. It was all bullshit, Barry Goldwater called it out decades ago just before the evangelicals and neoliberals poisoned American politics. The issues everyone has worried about and voted over the last two decades, such as abortion, were just memes and wedge issues promoted by talk show hosts, political talking heads, politicians, pastors; everyone in society that makes their living through bullshitting people. But throughout it, the politicians have never intended to solve those issues. They are too useful to bring up when trying to get elected to squander by solving. That's why they are still with us.

Do you really think, at the end of a Cruz presidency, abortion will be illegal? Fuck no it won't be. And even if it did end up illegal, it would be inconsistent with the constitution. The opposition to abortion is solely based in people's religious philosophy. Separation of church and state prevent us, constitutionally, from imposing someone's religious philosophy on someone else. It's very simple, the choice of the evangelical is to shit on their religion or shit on the constitution. How can Cruz do both? Well, he managed to do it by bullshitting everyone and acting like a pastor. That's pretty sad.

What Republican president since Reagan has appointed a conservative justice to the SCOTUS? They end up being liberal, time and time again. The last time it happened was Clarence Thomas and he almost got borked over the pubic hair on the coke can affair. Well, that's lawyers. Cruz is a lawyer.

You guys fell for that "New York values" abomination, so I'm asking you, why do you have faith in lawyer values?

We haven't had a traditional conservative for President since Reagan. Cruz is a traditional conservative as is Rubio (despite the gang of 8 immigration bill he now says was a mistake).  Both would appoint strict constructionist judges.

Quote from: 21st Century Man on February 02, 2016, 05:00:27 AM
We haven't had a traditional conservative for President since Reagan. Cruz is a traditional conservative as is Rubio (despite the gang of 8 immigration bill he now says was a mistake).  Both would appoint strict constructionist judges.

Exactly. You beat me to it. There is far more to being a conservative than standing up for the rights of the unborn. In fact, I am probably as conservative as they come. Somewhere just to the right of Genghis Khan. Abortion is not even  near the top of my priorities -- politically speaking.

I am looking for a conservative that will cut the size of government, lower taxes, get big government off the back of business, ensure a strong vibrant military, appoint tough hard-nosed judges to fight crime, and finally, and probably most importantly, respect the damn Constitution!

As far as I can see, both the Cubans pretty much meet the standard I'm looking for. But, of course I favorited Ted Cruz, because I believe he is the more conservative of the two. However, I'm perfectly happy to support Rubio if need be. Donald Trump, on the other hand, is a phony, and has absolutely no chance.

Along with fightthefuture, my gut feelings and knowledge predicted what would happen in Iowa.  I knew Trump would not win and Cruz would win. I also thought Rubio might make a strong showing.  I was a bit flummoxed by the Democrat choices.  Clinton, a possible criminal, and Bernie, the hard-core Socialist.  I wouldn't vote for either of them but I thought Bernie was going to make a strong showing and he did with the help of brainwashed college students.

Bernie win New Hampshire and Hillary wins South Carolina.

Trump wins New Hampshire and this is a wild card, Christie or Kasich comes in second. If Rubio finishes strong, he will have momentum going into South Carolina.  I don't see Cruz doing well at all in New Hampshire but I could be wrong.  I still think Cruz will win South Carolina but if Rubio gets more votes than Cruz in New Hampshire, Rubio could very well win South Carolina.  Trump will not do well in South Carolina or in the rest of the South.  He could very well win in Nevada though.

If Bloomberg throws himself into the presidential race as an Independent, the Republican nominee will win the White House.

Quote from: FightTheFuture on February 02, 2016, 05:13:28 AM
Exactly. You beat me to it. There is far more to being a conservative than standing up for the rights of the unborn. In fact, I am probably as conservative as they come. Somewhere just to the right of Genghis Khan. Abortion is not even  near the top of my priorities -- politically speaking.

I am looking for a conservative that will cut the size of government, lower taxes, get big government off the back of business, ensure a strong vibrant military, appoint tough hard-nosed judges to fight crime, and finally, and probably most importantly, respect the damn Constitution!

As far as I can see, both the Cubans pretty much meet the standard I'm looking for. But, of course I favorited Ted Cruz, because I believe he is the more conservative of the two. However, I'm perfectly happy to support Rubio if need be. Donald Trump, on the other hand, is a phony, and has absolutely no chance.

Well-said. You and I see eye-to-eye.  Your thoughts are exactly the same as my thoughts for the most part.

What we learned last night, above all, is that democracy is stupid and should be universally banned, and replaced with nationalistic, populist authoritarianism.

VtaGeezer

It's coming out that Cruz won dirty.  Before the voting, his campaign sent emails instructing local leaders to announce at the caucuses that Ben Carson was dropping out.  His poodle, Rep Steve "Cantaloupes" King, tweeted it too. This cost Carson 1/3 of his support and threw most of it to the TX asshole.  No wonder everyone who deals with the slimy prick hates him.  Also shows how easy it is to manipulate the quaint but stupid caucus system.  Lots of issues on how the Clinton side gamed the Iowa rubes too.

Up All Night

Ronald Reagan also lost Iowa in the GOP Primaries. So BFD that Trump wasn't the "winner" in Iowa!!!

NH is *not* Cruz Country. Let's see if Trump beats The Ice Cream Man (Rubio) in NH!!

Up All Night

Quote from: FightTheFuture on February 02, 2016, 05:13:28 AM
I'm perfectly happy to support Rubio if need be. Donald Trump, on the other hand, is a phony, and has absolutely no chance.

I couldn't disagree more!!! Rubio is a bought and paid for LIAR!!!

It's Trump that's genuine. Trump is the real National Leader, day in and day out.

I cannot see Rubio (The Ice Cream Man) effectively dealing with WWIII, on a daily, if not hourly basis, as POTUS. He talks a Good talk.... but a long protracted WWIII is above his grade.

VtaGeezer

Quote from: Black Lives Matter on February 02, 2016, 07:00:08 AM
What we learned last night, above all, is that democracy is stupid and should be universally banned, and replaced with nationalistic, populist authoritarianism.
What democracy?  Hardly one in three registered Iowa voters showed up.  So about 50,000 people; mostly those whose politics is dictated by religion, may change the course of history for a third of a billion.   We saw again last night is that Americans are oblivious to the slow strangulation of America by their romantic fixation on 18th Century quaintness.

Yorkshire pud

Quote from: VtaGeezer on February 02, 2016, 11:01:33 AM
What democracy?  Hardly one in three registered Iowa voters showed up.  So about 50,000 people; mostly those whose politics is dictated by religion, may change the course of history for a third of a billion.   We saw again last night is that Americans are oblivious to the slow strangulation of America by their romantic fixation on 18th Century quaintness.

I find it perplexing that very few of the states are actually canvassed; simply because they're deemed to be 'dead certainties' or 'not a chance'. Effectively making very few of the electorate having the final say over the whole country, because the other 'certain' states have already wrapped it all up.

Still, it's similar here too; sadly. Several constituencies have low turn out because 'there's no point, they always get in anyway'.

Yorkshire pud

Quote from: Up All Night on February 02, 2016, 10:29:20 AM
I couldn't disagree more!!! Rubio is a bought and paid for LIAR!!!

It's Trump that's genuine. Trump is the real National Leader, day in and day out.

The only person Trump is interested in, is Trump. It's naivety to the extreme to imagine anything else.

Quote
I cannot see Rubio (The Ice Cream Man) effectively dealing with WWIII, on a daily, if not hourly basis, as POTUS. He talks a Good talk.... but a long protracted WWIII is above his grade.

You lovely chap! How do you think WW3 should be played out as the POTUS sits in a bunker somewhere?

GravitySucks

Quote from: VtaGeezer on February 02, 2016, 11:01:33 AM
What democracy?  Hardly one in three registered Iowa voters showed up.  So about 50,000 people; mostly those whose politics is dictated by religion, may change the course of history for a third of a billion.   We saw again last night is that Americans are oblivious to the slow strangulation of America by their romantic fixation on 18th Century quaintness.

The only way Iowa could change the course of history for a "third of a billion" is if they refused to plant this year's corn crop.

Quote from: Up All Night on February 02, 2016, 10:29:20 AM
I couldn't disagree more!!! Rubio is a bought and paid for LIAR!!!

It's Trump that's genuine. Trump is the real National Leader, day in and day out.

I cannot see Rubio (The Ice Cream Man) effectively dealing with WWIII, on a daily, if not hourly basis, as POTUS. He talks a Good talk.... but a long protracted WWIII is above his grade.

Trump: "John McCain got captured. He's a loser. I don't like losers. I like winners."

Yeah, he's ready to be Commander-in-Chief.  Sure.

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