Random Political Thoughts

[Pragmier]

While not common, it's not necessarily incompatible with democracy, Indonesia being one example. I still have hope for the Egyptians, but as you pointed out it is going to take time.

[Nucky Nolan]

The kingdoms are being phased out, and the military dictatorship strongmen are being phased out. The only contenders left are the Jihadi's.

The Arabs and others need democratic infrastructure before they can achieve any kind of lasting democracy - democracy doesn't just start from nothing.  The US has been encouraging things like legislative bodies, a free press, a military under civilian oversight, an indpendent judiciary, etc, but these ideas institutions take time to become accepted as normal and entrenched.  Look how easy it was for Morsi to basically declare himself above the law and purge any opposition.


Any democracy is going to be short lived and any democracy movement willl likely be weak and won't even out live the regime they are tryong to overthrow.  Islam is not only the religion, it's the law and the government as well - and that is incompatable with democracy.  The first step is the reform of Islam.  Good luck with that.

I agree with the thrust of what you said. Speaking of thrust, you explained very well why we get @#$% up the @#$% each time we try to force democracy on some Muslim country. We need to realize that they don't have the same culture and customs. Let them run their own countries. It indeed seems like most forms of Islam aren't compatible with most forms of democracy. Turkey is an anomalous country in that regard. As for most of the rest of them in the area, Israel is like an oasis of sanity in a Sahara of dictators and theocrats. I doubt that the new "devil" in Egypt will change that, but I'd be happy to eat hummus pie.   

[Mind Flayer Monk]

While not common, it's not necessarily incompatible with democracy, Indonesia being one example.

Indonesia is a horrible, horrible example.
The great amount of islands makes it harder to gather info, but Indonesia is dangerous.
Chinese plutarchs trying to rule from the main island and every other island full of muslims.
200 year hatred of Americans as well. Actually one of the main areas of early use of the Marines (before Islam).

[Pragmier]

MFM I haven't visited Indonesia so cannot comment 1st hand. Don't they have an elected president, a growing economy, and mostly positive relations with the US while also 85% Muslim?

I got this from the Heritage Foundation's report:

Indonesia is the world’s most populous Muslim-majority democracy. In the years since 1998, when long-standing authoritarian ruler General Suharto stepped down, Indonesia’s nearly 250 million people have enjoyed the blossoming of a wide range of political freedoms, and participation in the political process is high. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has cracked down on corruption and has tried to encourage much-needed for­eign investment, but the weak rule of law remains a major impediment to attracting capital. As a member of the G-20, Indonesia is playing an increasingly important role in inter­national economic policy discussions.

And this from the State Dept fact sheet:

In 2009, national legislative elections were held on April 9 and presidential elections were held in July. They were peaceful and considered free and fair ...  At least 171 million voters registered to vote in these elections. Voter turnout was estimated to be 71% of the electorate. Nine parties won parliamentary seats in the House of Representatives (DPR). The top three winners were secular nationalist parties: President Yudhoyono’s Partai Demokrat, with 20.85% of the vote; Vice President Jusuf Kalla’s Golkar Party, 14.45%; and former president Megawati’s opposition PDI-P party, with 14.03%.

I *sounds* like they're moving in the right direction, but again I haven't been there. What's been your experience?

[Mind Flayer Monk]

The ruling ethnic Chinese elite probably have a relationship with the US as they sell us oil, ore, and palm oil (for soaps etc).  Our multinationals are there in full force. Chevrons and Johnson and Johnsons are all there and they don't hire Indonesians, they import workers from other countries (building more dislike).

The CIA has been very active in attempting to control who is in power in Indonesia. I don't consider that as a success for democracy.

Indonesia consistently ranks in the bottom for the SE Asia region in both corruption and economic freedom. The Heritage Foundation ranked them at 115 out of 165 countries. They hold a similar rank in corruption.

This and the Phillipines are the next big powder kegs in anti-American sentiment. 

Our modern idea of democracy and Indonesia do not mix.

[Pragmier]

Gotcha & thanks for the informative response.

In the region, is there any you'd consider a good example or promising?

[Mind Flayer Monk]

It has not worked out globally so far. Cohabitation has worked in areas of diverse populations such as Singapore and Turkey.

If I were going to study Islam and democracy I would probably focus on the interactions in already established democracies. The US and Germany are the big ones. There are plenty in France as well but the research is harder to get to.

Along that path  the Pew Center is great. http://pewresearch.org/pubs/483/muslim-americans
You can download the report and then read some of their citations to get a good idea of other literature in the field.
Globally two good sources are Duke University and Georgetown University.
http://cmcu.georgetown.edu/
and
http://tcths.sanford.duke.edu/

[Ben Shockley]

Pragmier, I would take MFM's "informative response" with a big ol' grain of salt.   I'm with him on how the CIA meddling in other people's politics isn't good for pretty much anyone, but otherwise that depiction of Indonesian sociopolitics seems a little paranoid.
For instance, I guess that reference to a "Chinese ruling elite" is supposed to evoke images of vaguely-sinister, vaguely-Beijing-controlled "Wo Fat" types, but few if any of the recent major figures in Indonesian government are Chinese.  Hint: when you read of an Indonesian person using a single name or an Arabic-sounding name, or see a pic of an Indonesian wearing a fez, that person ain't Chinese --though people like that are pretty much everyone big in recent Indonesian rulership.  Chinese are big throughout the economies of Southeast Asia -- but you could also say a lot of the movers and shakers in Western economies have "Jewish" names, so--?? Go figure.

And Pragmier: which "Heritage Foundation" appraisal are you going to believe?   Is Indonesia "promising" (your Heritage citation) or does it suck (MFM's citation)?   Personally, I'd look for a less-ideological source --for pretty much anything I needed facts on.

MFM-- saying that modern democracy and Indonesia don't mix, while also admitting that screwing with their politics is bad, is a weird mix of assertion.   I'm not even saying that you're "wrong" -- it's just a weird mix of things for you to say.   By arguing against (ostensible) CIA (or other?) interference in Indonesian politics, it would seem that you are advocating for Indonesian self-determination..?  I guess you just can't take the next step of concluding that that self-determination could be "organically democratic," evidence notwithstanding..?

This and the Phillipines are the next big powder kegs in anti-American sentiment  [MFM] -- sounds like something right out of "Domino Theory" circa 1962.   Except that in this case, I have no idea what the "previous falling domino" nor who the "domino toppler" are supposed to be.   Have you worked it out that far, MFM?
I wouldn't look for any particular "anti-American" turmoil in either of those places any time soon.

[Mind Flayer Monk]

Chinese ruling elite
1. The Europeans would use Cantonese traders during colonialism to run these operations. When they left the Cantonese traders had the know how to run trade through the islands. They also knew how to manage finances and capital. A large portion of the Chinese were still split in two over the Tai Ping rebellion and refused to acknowledge the manchu.
2. Ethnic Chinese worked with the Japanese in WW2, and with us right after. Its actually been said WW2 in the Pacific started when we blockaded Indonesia.
3. The number of ethnic Chinese swelled again as the mercantile class fled China during both the Chinese civil war and the Cultural Revolution.
4. This number swelled again as ethnic Chinese fled Laos/Cambodia/Vietnam etc as you were pulled out of your house and shot if you were ethnic Chinese.

So that is the origin of the ruling Chinese elite. It is there and it is real. They control capital throughout the islands.

I used the Heritage Foundation as it was what was given to me, discussing using a similar source usually helps in short conversations. There are many other similar indexes. Try the Corruption Perception Index   http://www.transparency.org/research/cpi/overview

I am saying I would not call Indonesia a modern democracy because we may have had involvement with their politics.

Muslim separatists are going strong in the Philippines. http://asiasociety.org/policy/governance/national/muslim-separatists-southern-philippines

There have been several terrorist incidents against primarily Australians at night clubs in Indonesia (Bali bombing killed 200 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Bali_bombings) and Thailand, among others. I am not sure how much coverage that has received in the States but the Austrailians are aware of it.

The general reach of terrorism has been to go out into a remote place (remote afghanistan, the islands of Indonesia) out of our reach where it is to expensive to monitor them and they can do what they want.
Motivated terrorists with sea mines and an old fishing boat could do tremendous damage to our shipping.

You can read more here Jemaah Islamiyah
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jemaah_Islamiyah
"JI has its roots in Darul Islam (DI, meaning "House of Islam"), a radical Islamist/anti-colonialist movement in Indonesia in the 1940s.[6] The JI was formally founded on January 1, 1993, by JI leaders, Abu Bakar Bashir and Abdullah Sungkar[7] while hiding in Malaysia from the persecution[8] of the Suharto government. After the fall of the Suharto regime in 1998, both men returned to Indonesia[9] where JI gained a terrorist edge when one of its founders, the late Abdullah Sungkar, established contact with Osama Bin Laden's al-Qaeda network.[10]"

[PB the Deplorable]

... Indonesia... and the Phillipines are the next big powder kegs in anti-American sentiment. ..

Do you mean the southern Muslim islands in the Phillppines, or the rest of the country too? 

Probably can include the Muslims in the far south part of Thailand too.  Maybe Thailand and the Phillipines should just cut loose their respective Muslim provences - they don't add up to much of anything except trouble anyway. 

[Pragmier]

Ben the HF assessment has both good and bad (isn't that the way "reality" mostly works) things to say. The ranking and their description are not mutually exclusive. (and I don't think the points we're all making are necessarily exclusive either). As far as the rankings, I haven't looked at it in-depth but consider they put the US 10th behind Chile and Canada, for what it's worth.

I will give everyone the benefit of the doubt, and - correct me if i'm wrong - but from MFM's posts I assumed (yeah I know!) that he has some working knowledge of the area? I'm going off straight research so will listen to a more direct experience.

Let me also point out the US required amendments to remove all slavery and permit women to vote roughly 90 and 145 years after our founding, and racial segregation was around almost 200.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court announed they will hear cases on gay marriage with rulings expected around June.

[Ben Shockley]

MFM and Pragmier-- after I wrote the other day, and right before I was getting ready for bed and didn't have the energy to come back in here and write, it occurred to me that I might have misunderstood something MFM was trying to communicate.   Namely, and in shorthand:  that global capitalism is making democracy unlikely to truly take hold in Indonesia (instead of "democracy is incompatible with Indonesia" which is how I read MFM's post last time).  If that's what you meant, MFM, I'd be with you on that in general.

MFM, regarding "ruling Chinese:"  like I said, and you just documented-- they are financially pre-eminent throughout SE Asia.  I don't equate that with "ruling," but I'm willing to agree to disagree on that.   Hey, what the hell do I know about the difference between financial systems and polities?
Anyway, pardon me guys: months of reading loony pre-election conspiracy theories and the generally paranoid tone toward Muslims and non-Caucasians in here just made me a little hyper-sensitive toward comments that seemed to cast the bumiputera into the "seething hostile anti-democratic" bin.   

And Pragmier-- yes, I have some "working knowledge of the [Indonesia] area" too --hence why I commented.
But, MFM-- educate me on what you wrote about  Indonesia being a scene of "early use of the Marines (before Islam)."  HUH??

~~love and kisses all around, folks 

with that in mind: I address Paper*Boy:
   like the proverbial stopped clock, P*B, you can be right by inertia.   You're right about the Muslims causing problems in Thailand.   Anyone who can piss-off Thais is working at it.

[Pragmier]

~~love and kisses all around, folks 

Right back at 'ya & don't be a stranger. The politics section has been too quiet since the election. I continue to be impressed by folks here and the experience/opinions they bring to the table.

[Mind Flayer Monk]

But, MFM-- educate me on what you wrote about  Indonesia being a scene of "early use of the Marines (before Islam)."  HUH??

Those were the Sumatran expeditions.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Sumatran_expedition
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Sumatran_expedition

The Sumatrans were killing our stranded sailors and aiming for our ships as piracy targets.

The article does not talk about it, but the reason we probably went out there for punitive expeditions is that our ships were carrying (secretly) guns and silver. China had at least 3 revolutions going on so government issued currency for trading was worthless (silver becomes very valuable) and guns are very valuable (including cannon to attack rebels in higher ground).
The Chinese rebels had no idea how to forge cannon and the ruling Qing were taught by the Jesuits (who they kept in their palace as much as possible) so the demand for ummm unofficial cannon...was quite strong as you can imagine.

If you pirate an English ship you get tea, a Dutch ship nutmeg, but American ships guns and silver...so the choice is pretty obvious.

I have to check on this but I think ships would pass Sumatra on their way to Mandalay. Remember the Qing tried to keep foreigners isolated to only a few ports in places such as Canton. So its likely Mandalay was the back entrance for bringing in goods to China.

[Pragmier]

The Associated Press reported that ICE has arrested an illegal immigrant and registered sex offender working as an unpaid intern on Sen. Robert Menendez's (D-NJ) staff. There are questions being asked about Homeland Security's decision to possibly hold off the arrest until after the Nov elections.

[Juan]

Mark Steyn - The fiscal cliff is no more real than the Mayan Apocalypse.  When it's over, we'll still be the brokest nation on earth.
Ha.

[PB the Deplorable]

Some 'Imam' in Saudi Arabia just issued a fatwa allowing Jihadi fighters in Syria to gang rape women.  And not just the usual 'non-Islamic' women this time either.

"... Muhammed al-Arifi, a Wahhabi religious cleric,  officially calls this act an “intercourse marriage” that can last only a few hours â€" “in order to give each fighter a turn” -- and restricts the men to Syrian females at least 14 years old, widowed or divorced...

... Al-Arifi, expressed his annoyance at the "warriors of Islam" being denied sexual pleasures while fighting in Syria “alongside the armed opposition forces” for the past two years.  He said this fatwa "solves [their] sexual problems"."

http://www.radicalislam.org/news/saudi-cleric-issues-fatwa-allowing-gang-rape-syrian-women

When they aren't blowing things up or slitting throats they are issuing shit like this.  Every.  Single.  Day.  And never do any 'moderate' Muslims speak up or condem it.

I really don't get people that think Muslims are just regular folks with bad press, and anyone saying otherwise is engaging in hysteria. 

Now I'll sit back and wait for someone to tell me this guy either didn't really mean it, or don't worry - he has no influence, or our local Muslims aren't like that and it doesn't affect us, or any of the rest of the stuff I hear when, say, the President of Iran is threatening to blow Israel and the West off the planet.

[Eddie Coyle]

 
      Oh, the irony! Al Gore sells Current to a network backed largely by Petro-dollars.

        Al Gore "Mr Green", alright. Concern for dollars, that is.

[The General]

      Oh, the irony! Al Gore sells Current to a network backed largely by Petro-dollars.

        Al Gore "Mr Green", alright. Concern for dollars, that is.

Just another ironic twist for Mr. Gore.  His family made a lot of their money through Occidental Petroleum.

[Sardondi]

      Oh, the irony! Al Gore sells Current to a network backed largely by Petro-dollars.

        Al Gore "Mr Green", alright. Concern for dollars, that is.

Just another ironic twist for Mr. Gore.  His family made a lot of their money through Occidental Petroleum.

So what? He said the right things at the right times. So what if he's a corrupt, cynical liar who sold out to not just a de facto enemy of the United States but an opponent of all the so-called green policies he claimed to have believed so deeply in? The only green Al Gore has ever actually believed in is what was in his wallet: all else is pretense, pose and stage-setting for the big kill he finally made. And what if he rushed to conclude the sale so that he could take full financial advantage of tax laws he publicly railed against as unjust? No biggie. He's useful because he's willing to say anything against Republicans, and that's what's most important.

Look, pretty soon he'll demagogue the upper middle class who make about 1/100th what he makes, claiming they don't pay their "fair share". And the boys from the Ministry of Information will push it on the evening news while conveniently ignoring Al's own hypocrisy. And all will be well.

[PB the Deplorable]

Moved this over here in an attempt to keep politics out of the other thread and not irritate MV and other posters...

... Death cult? You mean muslims? Why don't you just say it. And if you have evidence of these 'moles' you really ought to report it to the FBI. They'll not want to be caught out again I'm sure.

Yes, I mean Islam.  Or do you believe that 'Religion of Peace' crap?  I'd use a different description if you can provide a better one.

The moles?  Well, there's Huma Abedin - the Deputy Chief of Staff and top advisor on Arabic Affairs to Hillary at State - for starters.  Unless she's the only person in her family NOT in the Muslim Brotherhood.

Then there's this from Rose El-Youssef Magazine in Cairo:

http://www.investigativeproject.org/3869/egyptian-magazine-muslim-brotherhood-infiltrates

[Yorkshire pud]

Moved this over here in an attempt to keep politics out of the other thread and not irritate MV and other posters...
 

Yes, I mean Islam.  Or do you believe that 'Religion of Peace' crap?  I'd use a different description if you can provide a better one.

The moles?  Well, there's Huma Abedin - the Deputy Chief of Staff and top advisor on Arabic Affairs to Hillary at State - for starters.  Unless she's the only person in her family NOT in the Muslim Brotherhood.

Then there's this from Rose El-Youssef Magazine in Cairo:

http://www.investigativeproject.org/3869/egyptian-magazine-muslim-brotherhood-infiltrates

You're Alex Jones, Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck all in one, and I claim my $5..or if you're in the UK about £3.10.

Psst...you won't be invaded by Egypt...honestly...They have enough problems of their own than to take on yours too.. The diving in the Red sea is wonderful I'm told.

[PB the Deplorable]

You're Alex Jones, Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck all in one, and I claim my $5..or if you're in the UK about £3.10....

And you are incredibly misinformed

[PB the Deplorable]

Psst...you won't be invaded by Egypt...honestly...They have enough problems of their own than to take on yours too.. The diving in the Red sea is wonderful I'm told.

We had an earlier naive and foolish President that once thought the very same thing about Iran.  Jimmy Carter's mishandling of that gave us 30 some years and counting of Iran being the main source of terror in the world.

Bumbling Presidents do matter, poor foreign policy will get people killed, pretending people are friendly and no threat when they tell us the opposite isn't worth the consequences down the road.

I really wish the 'Progressives' would look in the rear view mirror once in awhile to see the chaos they've caused, to go beyond the good feelings they get from implementing new polices and consider future consequences.  It seems like too often it's about emotions and feeling good about themselves rather than what works or is really the best solution.

[analog kid]

We had an earlier naive and foolish President that once thought the very same thing about Iran.  Jimmy Carter's mishandling of that gave us 30 some years and counting of Iran being the main source of terror in the world.

Bumbling Presidents do matter, poor foreign policy will get people killed, pretending people are friendly and no threat when they tell us the opposite isn't worth the consequences down the road.

I really wish the 'Progressives' would look in the rear view mirror once in awhile to see the chaos they've caused, to go beyond the good feelings they get from implementing new polices and consider future consequences.  It seems like too often it's about emotions and feeling good about themselves rather than what works or is really the best solution.

The hypocrisy, it burns.

[Yorkshire pud]

We had an earlier naive and foolish President that once thought the very same thing about Iran.  Jimmy Carter's mishandling of that gave us 30 some years and counting of Iran being the main source of terror in the world.

Bumbling Presidents do matter, poor foreign policy will get people killed, pretending people are friendly and no threat when they tell us the opposite isn't worth the consequences down the road.

I really wish the 'Progressives' would look in the rear view mirror once in awhile to see the chaos they've caused, to go beyond the good feelings they get from implementing new polices and consider future consequences.  It seems like too often it's about emotions and feeling good about themselves rather than what works or is really the best solution.

Top tip!! End it all...move and live in a cave somewhere remote; take enough supplies (freeze dried Big Macs, Coca cola, Hershy bars, Wendys waffles. Millions of rounds of ammunition to fit an AK47 (reliable, will fire even after being buried in sand, simple-damn it's Russian...), what else? Oh, subscription to 'Hate everyone but me' weekly. Which feature pull out and keep supplements over several months, including:

'Paranoia: can I trust my own reflection'

and

'Opening a world atlas and finding that the USA is only one of over 200 sovereign states; How to get over yourself.'

and
'tattooing a confederate flag on your face; the pros and cons'

and
'The day I found I was Caucasian, and didn't believe I was superior to everyone else-coping mechanisms'

and
'Glen Beck; Rush Limbaugh; how to avoid that embarrassing erection when you hear them speak'

and
'How to use revolving doors; the secret of only pushing in one direction'

and
'How to use cognitive dissonance to your advantage by repainting history to blame all (not a majority, ALL) catastrophic world events, famines, wars,  pestilence etc on left wing governments, dictators, monarchies and aliens'.

and for a limited period:
'Sign up to our two day seminar when discussion groups will explore where right wingers have been wrong through history; Oxygen, inhalers and defibrillators will be made available at the reasonable price of $10 000 per deligate-after all, we don't want any of that left wing commie 'helping my fellow man and woman because it's the right thing to do shite'.

[PB the Deplorable]

Top tip!!...

As usual, when it comes right down to it, these people have nothing left but smears.


To tell the truth, I don't really care if you and the rest of Western Europe want to hand your countries over to the Muslims - they are quite serious in their goals even if you are not - although it kind of makes the US sacrifices in WWI and WWII pointless and a mistake, and that's unfortunate, but please don't come ask us to bail you out again.  I think it will be too late this time.

[PB the Deplorable]

The hypocrisy, it burns.

Which part of that is hypocritical?  Jimmy Carter wasn't  much much more naive and foolish in foreign policy than Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, or Bush II?  Ok, Bush II was really lousy, that doesn't mean Carter wasn't.

Or the part about the 'Progresssives' never looking forward or back to see or consider the damage of their policies?  Even the Establishment Republicans do this at times - the 'Progressives' never do, not ever.  They just get more shrill and double down.  Conservative policies tend to work when implemented.  Please don't confuse the Establishment R's with Conservatives - that's actually a big part of the miscommunication in our body politic.

[Sardondi]

As usual, when it comes right down to it, these people have nothing left but smears...

Well, that one doesn't it seems. 

[HAL 9000]

We had an earlier naive and foolish President that once thought the very same thing about Iran.  Jimmy Carter's mishandling of that gave us 30 some years and counting of Iran being the main source of terror in the world.

James Earl Carter: America's "microwave pizza roll" president.