The Results of Nov 6, 2012 as predicted by Carnac Coyle

[Sardondi]

(fiskerization)

There was a sort of A- movie with an A-list cast from the 80's with the name of, as I recall, White Mischief, which was about sexual excess and murder among the British expatriate community in Kenya during WWII. Kenya was at the time a British colony and viewed as one of the outlying sanctuaries for those whose behavior at home was so shocking and outré as to mandate exile. The movie follows the excesses, mostly involving alcohol, drugs, guns and orgies, of a group of disgraced aristocrats and rich/formerly rich commoners.

Sarah Miles, a fine actress who played a lot of sexed-up roles from the 60's to the 80's when she became more respectable*, played the most outrageous of the aristocrats: a woman who had seen and done everything and everybody three times over. While terribly witty and game for any wickedness, she grows increasingly weary of all the world has to offer, and eventually commits suicide out of her ennui.

Near the movie's end there's a wonderful scene of Miles as she stumbles out to the veranda of her palatial digs, utterly exhausted from years of dissipation and decadence. She takes in the breathtaking vista of the Kenyan plain and lake as early dawn breaks. But instead of seeing the glory of it, she sags in resignation and despair and says, "Oh God, not another fucking beautiful day."

Which is exactly how I feel today, although not for the same reasons. For the 5th or 6th day in a row - I've lost count - I have not slept more than grabbing a couple of naps. I just don't.have.the.energy. to defend or explain myself. I know it violates the Second Rule of Chairman Barry - "Punch back twice as hard." (Number 1 is "This is how we do things in Chicago.") But I just can't think about it. So feast on my flesh. Enjoy.



* She's the lead in the simply wonderful Hope And Glory http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0093209/

[Pragmier]

Sardondi - I enjoyed your post and will check out the film. May your next nap be Winkle-like.

[Ben Shockley]

Actually, The Affordable Care Act provides for the president to raise his own army after declaring a national emergency.  Said force is answerable to the president, and he decides who will be in it, for the most part... 

But as I postulated above: no one actually voted for Obama, right?  He's only in office by ACORN-engineered voter fraud which is even now being bravely combatted by wise Repub state legislatures.   That's certainly been right-wing canon since 2008.   So if no one even voted for the guy, who will risk taking up arms for him?  Especially since any such foolhardy motley crew will have to go up against the invincible army of right-wing bunker-dwellers who have armed and provisioned themselves with the best Wal-Mart weapons and the best Alex Jones food that government checks could buy.
And again: who will pay this army?   Obama himself?   Out of...what?   Or will he personally go around to each and every stalwart Tea Party congressperson and hold his bloody machete to their neck until they sign an appropriation for his personal army?   And who will then go expropriate the tax money from said bunker-dwellers?  Will that be a separate tax-collection force?   And who will comprise and pay them?   Are we now locked into an infinite regression of illegal personal "armies of dispossession?"

HEY COYLE!!  YA STILL GOT THAT DSM-V HANDY ??

[PB the Deplorable]

...  any such foolhardy motley crew will have to go up against the invincible army of right-wing bunker-dwellers who have armed and provisioned themselves...

Got that right

[Pragmier]

Three days left, any last minute predictions?

[MV/Liberace!]

i again submit:


even though i hope obama loses, i don't believe he will.  i predict a romney defeat with the subsequent concession speech taking place late on election night.

[MV/Liberace!]

by the way... my political predictions are usually absolute shit.  i hope this one is, as well.

[analog kid]

Except he's been issueing Executive Orders to get what he can't get passed by Congress.  Incredibly corrupt.  Excutive Order is not there for bypasing Congress when the Pres doesn't get his way.  This is what happens when we get someone that 1) has no executive experience working with a legislative body and 2) has distain for our Constitution.

And yes, that be an impeachable offense.

Executive orders began with George Washington, and Bush signed more orders than Obama, at this point in his term.

[George49]

Its probably going to be Obama, all the polls are showing he's leading in most of the state. So its most likely his barring a miracle. 4 more years of a broken down economy with massive job losses coming. Plus a gazillion dollar deficit is looming.

[PB the Deplorable]

Executive orders began with George Washington, and Bush signed more orders than Obama, at this point in his term.

It's not a matter of numbers.  Executive Orders are not a tool to be used to usurp Congressional authority when they won't pass legislation the President wants - it isn't for that. 

It's interesting whenever I hear someone is a 'Constitutional Lawyer' like Obama claims to be, that person almost always seems to be involved in undermining the Constiution instead of looking for ways to strengthen it.

[PB the Deplorable]

Its probably going to be Obama, all the polls are showing he's leading in most of the state. So its most likely his barring a miracle. 4 more years of a broken down economy with massive job losses coming. Plus a gazillion dollar deficit is looming.

And further weakness and shenagans like Benghazi abroad.  Further agression from Russia, China, the Jihadi Muslims...

I really don't think it will happen though (unless the D's manage to steal it), we'll see.

[Pragmier]

Sticking with my post of 09/17 with Obama around 300.

[Sardondi]

I lifted this post from "Politics" because it seems relevant here. Just my thoughts.
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"Somethin' is goin' on out there.

It's political holy writ that in the last few days of a presidential campaign the steely-eyed realists grab the wheel, and tough decisions are made about where to spend the last precious resources of time and money. Money for ads is pulled from sure things and hopeless causes. Campaign stops are re-jiggered so that last minute internal polling (supposed to be the best, or at least the freshest and most up to the minute that money can buy) is taken into consideration about where to go. If a candidate is surging in some states he hadn't counted on, he goes there. But never does a candidate go to states which have been considered safely in the other guy's column.

So where did Romney go Saturday night? Colo-fucking-rado. Romney spent the Saturday night before Election Day in the Democrat stronghold of Denver and drew 18,000 (they're pretty sure about the number since he packed the "Comfort Dental Amphitheater" - jeez I wish people would have some stones and turn down naming money...it's just humiliating for everyone concerned). Now correct me, but IIRC CO was a solid blue state in September. And here Romney is making a major nighttime rally 3 days before the election and people are screaming crazy to see him.

And something crazy is happening - the electoral map all over is warming up to a rosy hue. We can tell a little bit from the public polling data. A single poll is pretty much meaningless, but taken as a whole, fairly reliable as to trends. And the trend is Romney is surging almost everywhere. He's up 6 in FL. Ahead in PA and OH.  He leads Obama with 50% in VA. Breaking ahead in WI. A toss-up in MN - Minnesota, by God! The land of 1000 lakes and Garrison Keillor (and the most passive-aggressive funny man in the business). I'm saying it's a trend.

Another consideration is energy. Romney has it, Because for millions of his supporters this is a "ground glass election", as in "I would crawl over ground glass to vote for Romney". Not because they especially love Romney, although in comparison to Obama this last couple of months you'd be excused for mistaking him as the President, and Obama as the challenger. Romney walks, talks and acts presidential, and people are starved for that. It's called "leadership".

I think we're past the point of wondering whether Obama can maintain his "Firewall" - he's trending to lose at least ½ of it already. I think now the question is the "L" word, and I'm not talking about a Showtime fantasy series about impossibly beautiful women who aren't attracted to men. Think of the earth moving away beneath one's feet. Like Obama's feet. Because here's another fact: while Romney was drawing 30,000 screaming supporters in Dayton Friday night, Obama could only muster 2,800. Worse, at another Cleveland stop, with Stevie Wonder providing a free concert, Obama could only draw 200 people in Cleveland. 200 people. That's just staggering.

I'm saying there's somethin' definitely goin' on out there."

[analog kid]

while Romney was drawing 30,000 screaming supporters in Dayton Friday night, Obama could only muster 2,800. Worse, at another Cleveland stop, with Stevie Wonder providing a free concert, Obama could only draw 200 people in Cleveland. 200 people. That's just staggering.

I'm saying there's somethin' definitely goin' on out there."

Obama wasn't actually at the rally at the Cleveland campus, and it wasn't unannounced until hours beforehand.

Romney's crowd was probably entirely Mormons. Like how Scientologists buy shitloads of Dianetics to get it on the best seller list.

[Sardondi]

Obama wasn't actually at the rally at the Cleveland campus, and it wasn't unannounced until hours beforehand.

Romney's crowd was probably entirely Mormons. Like how Scientologists buy shitloads of Dianetics to get it on the best seller list.

Heh. Whistle past that graveyard. Such attempts to demean by insult, while they do tell you a lot about their maker, don't change a thing. But they sure do make the looming prospect of a Romney victory so much more fun.

[Pragmier]

I lifted this post from "Politics" because it seems relevant here. Just my thoughts.
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A single poll is pretty much meaningless, but taken as a whole, fairly reliable as to trends. And the trend is Romney is surging almost everywhere. He's up 6 in FL. Ahead in PA and OH.

I'd like to know what they're looking at because I pulled this chart and it only shows one poll of about a dozen with Romney ahead in Ohio, from Citizens United. Maybe that outlier is correct, but no way does the data "taken as a whole" indicate Romney is leading. Rasmussen went from tied on 10/23, to +2 Romney on 10/28, to tied again on 11/1.

PA numbers are about the same; again only 1 poll shows Romney ahead. Rasmussen has Obama up 51-46 as of 10/24. I couldn't find his most recent.

Also, the comment from the author (not Sardondi) "He's up 6 in Fl" is based exclusively on the Mason-Dixon, which, coincidentally, is the biggest Romney margin on the list. Romney does win most of the Florida polls, but not by six points, and there are some showing a tie and a couple give Obama a thin lead.

[Eddie Coyle]

         If my initial prognostications(big word alert for the remedial CG members) prove correct, of Obama 347-191...
           Then I'm treating myself to getting hammered.

           In other words, business as usual. However, considering that a Republican hasn't been declared a winner on the actual day of Election since November 8, 1988 (forgive me for providing dates, I know the Title I crowd hates that as well) if Romney does win...we won't know until about Thursday.

[John Smith]

Since this is a C2C fan forum, lets go with the real experts on the election, Astrologers

Several prominent astrologers have stated their astrologically based opinion that Obama will defeat Romney in November.  On 29 May 2012 Reuters reported: “The votes are in and it is unanimous: Barack Obama will win re-election to the U.S. presidency in November, according to five astrologers who offered predictions at their convention on Tuesday.”

Updated here with link to the original prediction
http://tonylouis.wordpress.com/2012/10/21/updated-prediction-of-u-s-presidential-election-2012/

[Juan]

The real experts are the Washington Redskins - they lost today, meaning Romney wins.

[stevesh]

Romney - 321   Obama - 217

[The General]

... if Romney does win...we won't know until about Thursday.

I think you're right, this is one election that is going to the lawyers.  I expect multiple recounts either way.  Funny how the recounts never confirm the initial count.

[MV/Liberace!]

after i leave the office today, i think i'm going to go buy a couple boxes of additional ammo.  need to prepare for the race war possibly beginning wednesday.

[Juan]

I just took delivery of 500 rounds and another 200 pellets for my break barrel.   I hope I'm ready.

[Eddie Coyle]

        I have two tons of crack.

[Sardondi]

after i leave the office today, i think i'm going to go buy a couple boxes of additional ammo.  need to prepare for the race war possibly beginning wednesday.

Boxes? Buy cases. And watch all the episodes of The Walking Dead you can. You didn't think it was really about a zombie war did you?

Seriously, if the outcome disappoints those who feel entitled to perennial gratification, there might be some destruction of property, but it's mostly going to be as a pretext for opportunistic redistribution of chattels, formerly known as "looting".

[MV/Liberace!]

        I have two tons of crack.

so you're opting for the "barter" route rather than brute force. 

[Sardondi]

        I have two tons of crack.

..and a "Rob me and kill me if I resist" sign around your neck. Safe barter of goods in disaster scenarios can only be assured if a significantly more physically powerful party to the transaction is not led by intelligence (if he knows you're not packing) or ignorance (if he can't tell, and affirmatively answers the question, "Do I feel lucky?") to ponder why he doesn't just take your stuff. Which means you must be visibly, credibly armed. An armed society is a polite society.

[Eddie Coyle]

so you're opting for the "barter" route rather than brute force.

      Yes and a bit of  keep 'em drugged and happy approach, and then they'll be turning on each other as the high comes down. However, strychnine may find it's way into the batch.

[MV/Liberace!]

      Yes and a bit of  keep 'em drugged and happy approach, and then they'll be turning on each other as the high comes down. However, strychnine may find it's way into the batch.

anagrammy would not be pleased.

[b_dubb]

obama wins all the battleground states with margins ranging between 3 and 7 %