What is Next in the Middle East?

[Zircon]

With the lack of willingness by Obama to talk with Netanyahu, Israel will feel as though it is on its own - its back to the wall.

The election is on November 6 ... that is 53 days away. I expect a military action to be undertaken by Israel sometime before our election against Iran. As unpatriotic as it sounds, I think Obama might be hoping for Israel to take unilateral action - and before the election. His administration will be viewed as non-complicit and taken aback.

Again, timing is everything. Obama will be embroiled in a crisis, whether his administration chooses to participate or not. They won't participate in an act of aggression on Iran.

His actions will be to put a halt to the war and act as an ambassador of peace. This is quite presidential and he knows it. He will be the center of attention here in this country. He can utter he carefully written orations. The media will be in overdrive to elevate him and ignore Romney. This may result in a cancellation of the debates.

He will convince the American people, who will be in a controlled state of bewilderment and anxiety, not to change leadership in the middle of the stream in the middle of an extremely volatile Middle East.

This will secure him reelection.

[Eddie Coyle]

 
         Nov 7, 2012. Obama will still be president, Israel will have done nothing, Iran will be in the 10th year of "being a year away from going nuclear"...life goes on.

             Israel will not strike Iran, for they have not taken a military action against someone who can hit back with a modicum of force since June, 1981. They'll threaten, but Israel is not foolish nor suicidal. They let their subordinate do the heavy lifting.

            But as we approach 50+ years of a policy of "They can have nukes...but you can't", I expect nothing to change.

             In 1983 alone, 270+ Americans were killed in Lebanon by the Iranian backed Hezbollah. Reagan responded by...letting his flunkies trade weapons with Iran(via Israel) by 1985. It's worth noting.

[analog kid]

This may be nothing but gloom and doom claptrap, but this theorist predicts global food riots. Those Middle Easterners still can't afford food and they're all dirt poor.

edit: That should be global unrest, and not food riots. Don't know where I got that from.

[Pragmier]

This situation is a reason invading Iraq was a risky idea - you've eliminated Iran's enemy in the region and now have to deal with them directly. Dictators can be swayed because they value self-preservation; religious zealots will strap a bomb on and laugh at your threats. My hope is once the Muslim Brotherhood gets a taste of power they too will want to hang on. It gives your enemies leverage when you value something other than getting to heaven.

[Sardondi]

Israel is going to have to act on Iran's nuclear weapons facilities, and it will be without US assistance - it might even be over US efforts to thwart Israel's attempts to defend itself from nuclear blackmail...that is, if Israel even gets the chance to be blackmailed by nukes, and doesn't just suddenly find most of the country burned crispy.

It's looking more and more that Team Obama actually wants the threat to Israel reach the point that no one can prevent a disastrous attack on it. "Oops", said the President. "We'll do better with the next Palest...I mean, the next Israel. Before you know it a couple of centuries will have passed and then it won't be long at all before the area will be habitable...by robots and nano-machines. Trust me. I know what Israel needs (to have happen to it).*giggle*"

[analog kid]

Israel is going to have to act on Iran's nuclear weapons facilities, and it will be without US assistance - it might even be over US efforts to thwart Israel's attempts to defend itself from nuclear blackmail...that is, if Israel even gets the chance to be blackmailed by nukes, and doesn't just suddenly find most of the country burned crispy.

It's looking more and more that Team Obama actually wants the threat to Israel reach the point that no one can prevent a disastrous attack on it. "Oops", said the President. "We'll do better with the next Palest...I mean, the next Israel. Before you know it a couple of centuries will have passed and then it won't be long at all before the area will be habitable...by robots and nano-machines. Trust me. I know what Israel needs (to have happen to it).*giggle*"

Israel has 300 nukes - enough to devastate the entire planet. Who presents the existential threat to whom?

[Zircon]

Israel has 300 nukes - enough to devastate the entire planet. Who presents the existential threat to whom?

Who is chanting "We want to exterminate you"?

[Eddie Coyle]

Who is chanting "We want to exterminate you"?

The Gush Emunim have that world view as well. A lot of them emigrating from the USA actually.

[Zircon]

    The Gush Emunim have that world view as well. A lot of them emigrating from the USA actually.

Well then ... good riddance.

[Sardondi]

Israel has 300 nukes - enough to devastate the entire planet. Who presents the existential threat to whom?

I'd say the nation that is the threat is the one that is a fundamentalist theocracy; the one whose political and religious leaders routinely, almost weekly, make pronouncements about how they're going to immolate a tiny country which is the only well-established democracy in the region; the nation whose people can be made to go batshit crazy and spill out into the streets calling for the blood of the tiny country over patently ridiculous and obviously planted rumors; the one which routinely has thousands of its citizens spill out into the streets and celebrate the deaths the murders by suicide bombing of yet more dozens of women and children of the tiny country whose heinous sin was having a religion different than that of the nation whose citizens regularly go batshit crazy and call for the blood of the residents of the tiny country; the nation which is the leading funder and supplier of terrorist murder bombings and assaults. That's who presents the existential threat - the one which has been intentionally engaged in existential attacks on civilians for over 30 years, and promises to continue doing so until all nations on earth accept its religion. 

The threat sure as hell isn't from the well-established democracy which is itself routinely threatened with extinction by its neighbors but which has never, never reduced itself to the barbarity of threatening those neighbors with extinction, even though by the hyperbolic estimates of some that it possesses "300 nukes", supposedly enough to "devastate the entire planet", it could easily do so.

[Eddie Coyle]

Well then ... good riddance.

       Thing is...they are "Americans" as much as Israelis in the eyes of many. Much of the Arab world already views Israel as America's 51st state...the actions of these zealots don't help.

[PB the Deplorable]

I'd say the nation that is the threat is the one that is a fundamentalist theocracy; the one whose political and religious leaders routinely, almost weekly, make pronouncements about how they're going to immolate a tiny country which is the only well-established democracy in the region; the nation whose people can be made to go batshit crazy and spill out into the streets calling for the blood of the tiny country over patently ridiculous and obviously planted rumors; the one which routinely has thousands of its citizens spill out into the streets and celebrate the deaths the murders by suicide bombing of yet more dozens of women and children of the tiny country whose heinous sin was having a religion different than that of the nation whose citizens regularly go batshit crazy and call for the blood of the residents of the tiny country; the nation which is the leading funder and supplier of terrorist murder bombings and assaults. That's who presents the existential threat - the one which has been intentionally engaged in existential attacks on civilians for over 30 years, and promises to continue doing so until all nations on earth accept its religion. 

The threat sure as hell isn't from the well-established democracy which is itself routinely threatened with extinction by its neighbors but which has never, never reduced itself to the barbarity of threatening those neighbors with extinction, even though by the hyperbolic estimates of some that it possesses "300 nukes", supposedly enough to "devastate the entire planet", it could easily do so.

Why the ferk didn't they assassinate Arafat about 1970?

[PhantasticSanShiSan]

Somebody tell me how you can have a legitimate ambassador in a country wherre you are siding with the revolutionaries?!?

[PhantasticSanShiSan]

Israel has 300 nukes - enough to devastate the entire planet. Who presents the existential threat to whom?

300 nukes, or4 the word "Thump" on the trunks...what's more powerful?!?!

[analog kid]

I'd say the nation that is the threat is the one that is a fundamentalist theocracy; the one whose political and religious leaders routinely, almost weekly, make pronouncements about how they're going to immolate a tiny country which is the only well-established democracy in the region; the nation whose people can be made to go batshit crazy and spill out into the streets calling for the blood of the tiny country over patently ridiculous and obviously planted rumors; the one which routinely has thousands of its citizens spill out into the streets and celebrate the deaths the murders by suicide bombing of yet more dozens of women and children of the tiny country whose heinous sin was having a religion different than that of the nation whose citizens regularly go batshit crazy and call for the blood of the residents of the tiny country; the nation which is the leading funder and supplier of terrorist murder bombings and assaults. That's who presents the existential threat - the one which has been intentionally engaged in existential attacks on civilians for over 30 years, and promises to continue doing so until all nations on earth accept its religion. 

The threat sure as hell isn't from the well-established democracy which is itself routinely threatened with extinction by its neighbors but which has never, never reduced itself to the barbarity of threatening those neighbors with extinction, even though by the hyperbolic estimates of some that it possesses "300 nukes", supposedly enough to "devastate the entire planet", it could easily do so.

You've been drinking a lot of kool-aid for a long time.

[Zircon]

       Thing is...they are "Americans" as much as Israelis in the eyes of many. Much of the Arab world already views Israel as America's 51st state...the actions of these zealots don't help.

Eddie, if they're "zealots" then let them put their actions where their mouths are. They are headed over there for what reason? It is bad for them here - no? They want to be where the action is. I'd rather have them exchanging arrows over there then here in my town or yours.

[Sardondi]

You've been drinking a lot of kool-aid for a long time.

Kool-Aid? What I've consumed for the last 30 years has been the news.

[Eddie Coyle]

Why the ferk didn't they assassinate Arafat about 1970?

The Israeli attempt on Arafat on Oct 1, 1985 in Tunis lead to 275-300 dead...but not Arafat. The Israelis killed Arafat's chief of operations, Ali Hassan Salameh in Jan, 1979.

         Salameh, "The Red Prince" was a CIA contact for nearly a decade. Robert Ames was his handler, and when Lebanese civil war broke out in earnest in the spring of '75, it was Salameh who helped shepherd Americans and guaranteed that no hostages would be taken. Once the Israelis killed Salameh, the CIA lost it's most important contact on the ground in Lebanon. And once Ames was killed in the April 1983 Embassy bombing, they lost their most adept Mid East analyst  and one of the few CIA men in the region who realized that we were not there to merely serve Tel Aviv or Riyadh. Within the year Americans were being kidnapped(something that didn't occur while Salameh was around) and even a station chief(Buckley) was nabbed.

           Salameh's/ Ames death....cui bono?

       

[Frys Girl]

Israel has 300 nukes - enough to devastate the entire planet. Who presents the existential threat to whom?

Common sense! Thank God.

Iran hasn't threatened anyone. Zircon, you don't know the origin and history of the situation at all, obviously, like most here in USA.

As to the ME, I don't give an f! I am more worried about USA and our problems here.

[Zircon]

Common sense! Thank God.

Iran hasn't threatened anyone. Zircon, you don't know the origin and history of the situation at all, obviously, like most here in USA.

As to the ME, I don't give an f! I am more worried about USA and our problems here.

Excuse me but it is a stated aim of the Mullahs and the "Twelvers", who happen to run Iran, that Israel needs to be wiped off the face of the earth. So "hasn't threatened anyone" is not true. With Obama's continuing eroding policy with Israel they are now beginning to realize they are alone. This can only be emboldening to the Arab militants and regimes who have a stated policy of eliminating Israel.

[PB the Deplorable]

Iran hasn't threatened anyone. Zircon, you don't know the origin and history of the situation at all, obviously, like most here in USA.

Can you expand on this a little bit?  Regardless of history or lack of history, threats and dangerous situations are still threats and dangerous situations. 

So are you saying something is being misinterpreted here, or that Iran is justified in issuing threats so therefore they aren't threats?

[Zircon]

FrysGirl ... I can understand your deep concern about what is happening here at home and that we must deal with our perilous situation. Thing is, while you and I are worrying about what we're going to do to make it through these times, our government has this situation to deal with. We should be concerned because regardless of our plight here on the domestic front (ourselves, family, friends, mortgage, job etc.) much of where we're headed is going to be based on what isn't even occurring here but elsewhere. Unfortunate as I'm sure we can agree but it is reality. One good way to get out of economic hard times is to have an all out war. Thing is we're already spread out and growing tired - our troops especially.

[Frys Girl]

Can you expand on this a little bit?  Regardless of history or lack of history, threats and dangerous situations are still threats and dangerous situations. 

So are you saying something is being misinterpreted here, or that Iran is justified in issuing threats so therefore they aren't threats?

Iran and its government have nothing to gain from conflict. Instead,Iran has been verbally attacked and antagonized. These latest embassy deaths prove how dumb Israel and The Hawks have been. They get a boner thinking of an Iran attack, ignoring shit talkers and actual terrorists. k Sanctions for what? Oh I'm sorry, maube if the drop their pants like the Saudis, sanctions would disappear.

[Frys Girl]

Excuse me but it is a stated aim of the Mullahs and the "Twelvers", who happen to run Iran, that Israel needs to be wiped off the face of the earth. So "hasn't threatened anyone" is not true. With Obama's continuing eroding policy with Israel they are now beginning to realize they are alone. This can only be emboldening to the Arab militants and regimes who have a stated policy of eliminating Israel.

LMAO Twelvers and that same misquote by MEMRI tv. Ahmadinejad has no power in Iran, and the Supreme leader despises him. He's like Mike Huckabee of Iran. You don't know jack about Iran. Stick to fox news and that  Batman/Joker creep you wrote ball massage poems for a few months back.

[Zircon]

LMAO Twelvers and that same misquote by MEMRI tv. Ahmadinejad has no power in Iran, and the Supreme leader despises him. He's like Mike Huckabee of Iran. You don't know jack about Iran. Stick to fox news and that  Batman/Joker creep you wrote ball massage poems for a few months back.

So I can see my attempt to be civil with you wasn't to your liking. Listen up little girl, I've been around Iranians, Egyptians and Jordanians. We include a Jordanian Christian family as one of our closest friends. We know more than you think about the Arab world and the Middle East.

Even the Ayatollah Khomeini back in 1979 said "Twelvers" were a scourge to Iran and Islam and should be rooted out and killed. Guess who is in charge? And if you think all of that nuclear activity is so Ahmed and Farah can turn on a kitchen light for a cheaper electric bill then you have drunk some putrid Kool-Aid. Those bunkers are tucked away and built deep. Why if all you're doing is trying to create Iran's next electric company?

I agree that a premeditated strike on Iran by Israel is not a good proposition but Egypt, Syria and Iran aren't who I'd like to have as neighbors. The neighbors are even more animate about their having to co-exist with Israel and Jews in general.

As I said, I agree with you about our plights her at home. What I was trying to emphasize is that our plights are secondary, for better or worse to us, in the eyes of government when it comes to international crisis. You should be old and wise enough to realize this.

[Ruteger]

I am no military expert, but you would think Israel would first launch an EMP strike on Iran. Why not? It would disable a good portion of their infrastructure/electrical grid. Then all they have to do is take care of the low-hanging fruit.

Israel is one of just a few countries with the technological know-how to do this.

[Zircon]

I am no military expert, but you would think Israel would first launch an EMP strike on Iran. Why not? It would disable a good portion of their infrastructure/electrical grid. Then all they have to do is take care of the low-hanging fruit.

Israel is one of just a few countries with the technological know-how to do this.

That is an excellent idea. Knock out the electronics and communications specifically. I think that any future attacks by nuclear powers would start off this way so as to win a war without actually having to lay waste of a large area of land with much fallout spreading with the winds to the entire region.

[ziznak]

EMP's are created by nu-clear explosions ya know...
Man Israel was such a bad fucking idea in the first place...

[PB the Deplorable]

Iran and its government have nothing to gain from conflict. Instead,Iran has been verbally attacked and antagonized. These latest embassy deaths prove how dumb Israel and The Hawks have been. They get a boner thinking of an Iran attack, ignoring shit talkers and actual terrorists. k Sanctions for what? Oh I'm sorry, maube if the drop their pants like the Saudis, sanctions would disappear.

The government of Iran has been and continues to be the number one supporter of terrorism in the world.  Sorry if that hurts your feelings or if you are embarrased by it.  I'm not attacking you.  I think you are probably just a bit defensive, and that's understandable in this high-charged era.

As far as the muslims being antagonized and verbally attacked, what we have in reality is a mutli track approach from them.  1) aways claim to be the victim,  2) agressively issue threats and insist everyone else cater to them 3) cowardly terrorist attacks on innocent people / infidels. 

Treatment of women, storing weapons and hiding in their mosques after attacks where they know decent people won't go to root them out, using clearly marked ambulances on the battlefield to move soldiers and weapons, hostage taking - this week it's attacking embassies, I could go on all day.  Who else does that?  The thing I resent the most is our government letting these people into our country where they immediately claim to be 'offended' at our way of life and start clamoring for everyone to cater to them. 

What the Muslims really need is to to join the 21st Century, and maybe have a Gandhi type figure emerge as a leader instead of more terrorist cowards issuing threats from their rat holes.


Do you really think the West, with our liberty, freedom and democracy is inferior to what goes on in the Muslim world?

[Zircon]

EMP's are created by nu-clear explosions ya know...
Man Israel was such a bad fucking idea in the first place...

I know exactly what an Electromagnetic Pulse is Ziz. High level explosion that fries circuitry not protected. If an item has enough of a lead shield it can withstand a certain amount. A couple of them over a populated area/region (even as wide as LA and San Diego - over 120 miles apart) could really fuck things up.